A War of Attrition and We’re Losing

33 Years of Ukrainian Independence: A Mixed Milestone

Today marks the 33rd anniversary of Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union. However, this milestone is tinged with melancholy, given Russia’s occupation of over 20% of Ukraine and its ongoing efforts to expand its influence following the recent invasion on February 24, 2022.

Despite Russia’s significantly larger population, which is three times that of Ukraine, and an economy nearly 10 times larger, it has encountered challenges in making substantial progress in Ukraine since its initial offensive. Undeniably, the $80 billion in military, financial, and humanitarian aid provided by NATO has played a pivotal role in enabling Ukraine to resist the advances of Russia.

This raises the question: why have the United States and NATO not extended the support necessary for Ukraine to decisively repel Russia’s invasion and counter the imperialistic threats aimed at resurrecting the Soviet Union?

The Western powers aim to avoid provoking and needlessly escalating tensions with Russia, considering its status as a superpower and history of threatening to resort to nuclear warfare. It is widely acknowledged that there are no winners in a nuclear conflict.

NATO’s Strategy: A War of Attrition

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is being handled with a strategy that may seem counterintuitive. Rather than providing Ukraine with ample supplies of advanced weapons and full permission to strike Russia, the approach is to prolong the war by supplying just enough resources for Ukraine to continue wearing down Russia. This aligns with NATO’s interest in a war of attrition using Ukraine to deplete Russia’s military and economic strength. Although financially costly for NATO, the war heavily impacts Russia in terms of casualties, military resources, disillusionment among its populace, and the tightening of Western sanctions.

The 32 member countries of NATO, collectively possessing a defense budget of $1.5 trillion and advanced technological capabilities, could feasibly overpower Russia in a conventional war. However, rather than risk an all-out confrontation, the strategy is to make any reckless military endeavors by Russia sufficiently costly in a prolonged, grinding conflict, rendering them untenable. From NATO’s standpoint, engaging Russia in a proxy war in Ukraine’s rolling eastern plains is preferable to a direct confrontation on European soil.

Historical Parallels: The Iran-Iraq War

An analogous strategy can be observed in the prolonged eight-year conflict (1980–1988) between Iraq and Iran, during which a complex network of nations provided military support to both sides. Despite Iraq receiving backing from the U.S., Western Europe, and Russia, the war persisted and ultimately culminated in a stalemate, leading to a UN-brokered ceasefire. The devastating toll of the conflict included 1-2 million casualties, with over half a million fatalities, and caused substantial setbacks to both countries economically and militarily. Essentially, it was in the interest of other nations to perpetuate the conflict, allowing Iraq and Iran to inflict harm upon each other rather than pose a threat to their neighbors. Notably, shortly after the conclusion of the Iraq-Iran war, Iraq brazenly invaded neighboring Kuwait in 1990.

Putin’s Ambitions and the Soviet Legacy

It is noteworthy that after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia experienced a resurgence of its Communist ideology under the leadership of former KGB head Vladimir Putin. Putin’s ambition to reclaim former Soviet client states, evident in the reoccupation of countries like Chechnya, Georgia, and Ukraine, raises concerns about the next potential targets. The extended war in Ukraine aims to weaken Putin’s regime until a new reformer emerges to positively impact Russia and its neighboring nations.

Russia’s Long Game: Alliances and Future Threats

While the U.S. is responding to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and conducting a grinding proxy war of attrition for the last couple of years, Russia of course, has been doing the same and worse to us for decades.

Russia is playing the long game:

• By aligning with China, they undermine us economically through their vast export “machine, industrial espionage, and stealing our intellectual property.
• By extending that partnership to Iran, they create an impermeable terror network aimed directly at us and our allies like Israel through a host of proxies (i.e., Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, ISIS, and the Houthis).
• This is not to mention, their ceaseless campaign of election interference and divisive propaganda using the media, Hollywood,  universities, and pro-Hamas protests through which they pretend to champion the cause of minorities, women, immigrants, and Palestinians all to fracture our social order and unity.
• Finally, they are sending terrorists and criminals over our porous borders.

The strategy behind all this is to attack us on a thousand fronts and leave us reeling and confused. It isn’t a one-time attack, but a slow burn that turns into a raging uncontrollable blaze, destroying us internally over many long years.

Insidious Tactics and Our Complacency

You would think that we would be able to see these threats and defend ourselves accordingly, however, their tactics are subtle and we have grown “fat and complacent,” and people are greedy for money and susceptible to propaganda. It is time for us to start playing chess rather than checkers.