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Richard J. Annen
Director, Center for Conflict Resolution Strategies

Another Ceasefire; Now What?

INTRODUCTION
The Israeli Palestinian Conflict ( the “Conflict”) has once again repeated its 77-year cycle of violence with another ceasefire to end another war. The more than year-long war in response to the atrocities of October 7, 2023, led to a divide among Israelis never before seen, with those who opposed the ceasefire because it does not end the war with the elimination of Hamas and those who welcomed the ceasefire at such a cost in order to bring the hostages home.

The act that caused the ceasefire was the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States and his statement that Hamas would have “Hell to pay,” if the hostages were not released by the time he took office on January 20, 2025. The resurgence of the peace-through-strength alliance of Israel and the US is the path for resolving the Conflict and achieving long-term peace in the Middle East.

THE REALITY OF THE CEASEFIRE
The ceasefire serves as a summation of the extremes of the war and those who waged it. Hamas took dead bodies and babies’ hostage, and Israelis were willing to die trying to get them back. For Israel, the ceasefire is intended to result in a return of all the hostages, dead and alive. If we have learned nothing else, we now known that hostages are the ultimate weapon of the amoral terrorist/criminal organization Hamas, which acted on its promise to kill any hostage that the IDF was a threat to rescue. Thus, a reality of the ceasefire is Israel’s recognition that it’s goal to rescue living hostages could not be achieved.

For Hamas, the ceasefire gives it the best outcome it could hope for – its survival in Gaza and the opportunity to fight another day. On January 16, 2025, Hamas’ leader and top negotiator in the ceasefire negotiations, Khalil al-Hayya, praised the October 7 massacre and confirmed that Hamas will continue to pursue Israel’s destruction.

For the Palestinians of Gaza, the scenes of those released by Israel and reports of Hamas killing of those who collaborated with Israel show that Hamas has every intention of acting to regain civil and military control of Gaza and killing all those who dare to oppose it. I look back on the videos of captured Hamas fighters cursing Hamas and thanking the IDF for liberating them from Hamas. The ceasefire has mostly likely signed their death warrants and those of any other Palestinians who openly opposed Hamas.

ISRAEL’S MORAL CRISIS
I share and sympathize with the views expressed by Rabbi Amichai Eliyahu, Israel’s Minister of Heritage, in his The Times of Israel blog article “The unbearable price of freedom.” A now reoccurring subset of the cycle of violence is the “moral crisis” Israel faces by releasing the “next Sinwars in the making” in exchange for Israeli hostages, coupled with 841 IDF soldiers killed trying to bring them home and 59 police officers having been killed to present their taking. But whether the ceasefire is viewed as good or bad, it is now the reality, and a strategic solution must be found to address the “moral crisis” of releasing terrorist murders of Israeli citizens to obtain the release of Israeli hostages. That moral crisis can only be resolved by an unrelenting determination to eliminate Hamas from Gaza. The prospect for such a solution may be embedded in a policy statement attributable to President Trump.

A counterbalance to Hamas bombast and a key to addressing the “moral crisis” and future security of Israel are the statements of Trump’s incoming National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz. In his confirmation hearing, Mr. Walz stated that if Hamas reneges on the ceasefire deal, the US will support Israel “in doing what it has to do.” He then stated: “Hamas will never govern Gaza. That is completely unacceptable.” Hamas may have survived its elimination for now, but its days of using the radicalized population of Gaza as a weapon to wage war on Israel must over. The Biden administration acted in a manner that gave Hamas hope that it would survive and at least participate in the governance of Gaza. Trump has put an end to any such outcome. Trump has already ended US funding of the UN’s terrorist supporting “relief” organization, UNRWA, and signaled through his nominee for UN Ambassador, Elise Stefanik, there will be a reckoning with the supporters of terrorism and antisemitism at the United Nations.

FUTURE GOVERNANCE OF GAZA AND THE WEST BANK – THE ALLIANCE OF NATIONS
To end Hamas’ control of Gaza and further degrade it, action must be immediately taken to put in place a new governing body that meets the dual complementary goals of ensuring Israel’s security and providing the Palestinian people with the opportunity to deradicalize and better the trajectory of their lives. As Rabi Eliyahu and other have implicitly recognized, this will not be easy and has in fact been made harder with Israel’s release of “expert terrorist infrastructure builders,” and “the commanders who will train the next generation of killers.” Further, as revered Israeli diplomat and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abba Eban, observed, the Palestinians “never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” Given their also twenty plus years of indoctrination and subservience to Hamas, they will, if left on their own in a leaderless vacuum, will not miss, but rather not have the opportunity to pursue a path of peace leading to self-governance of their country. But even given these obstacles, there is a way forward.

The key to ending the Conflict, and to not have had Israeli soldiers and civilians die in vain, is to ensure that Hamas will not govern Gaza (or the West Bank) by putting in place a post-war governance structure that precludes such from ever occurring, addresses Israel’s security concerns, and offers the Palestinian people the opportunity to live in peace and earn the right to achieve self-governance by rejecting terrorism. The Palestinians have no leadership that can embrace that path, thus it can and must be imposed on them. That governance structure is detailed in my article “Blueprint for an Imposed Peace to End the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict” (the “Blueprint”), which I posted on The Times of Israel blog on May 24, 2024 (the entirety of which can be found at www.centerforconflictresolutionstrategies.com.) The Blueprint proposes that Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Morocco, the EU, and US form an alliance for the governing of the Palestinian people (the “Alliance” or “Governing Council”). The Governing Council will oversee the governance of Gaza and the West Bank until such time as the Palestinian people achieve certain benchmarks, including rejecting terrorism and terrorist organizations, showing that they are ready and capable of self-governance. As a deradicalized and demilitarized people, they will remain under the protection of the Alliance, which will ensure long-term security for them and Israel.

Under the Alliance, Gaza can be divided into security zones with peace-keeping forces of individual nations for each zone. Those who falsely accused Israel of genocide, Ireland, South Africa, Nicaragua, Norway, Spain, and others can now act to ensure peace and safety for the people of Gaza and protect them from Hamas.

The Blueprint is a “living document” to be modified as future events dictate, but its overall structure and plan for the future of the Palestinian people and peace and security of Israel make it the viable and implementable plan for peace to this day. With the ceasefire, the urgency for its adoption and implementation is even greater.

USE THE POWER OF TRUMP AND THE ALLIANCE TO END THE CONFLICT
Israel now has a US President that is willing to use the power of the US to bring an end to the Conflict. Elements of the Blueprint can be implemented in a manner to use the ceasefire to marginalize Hamas and achieve the same long-term benefits that the elimination of Hamas would bring. Hamas represents a disease of the mind infecting the Palestinian people. That disease is best treated through peace and security for the Palestinian people, and all that flows from it, and all of which can only occur when those who use them as a weapon of war, Hamas, is truly eliminated from controlling their lives. There is a ceasefire, but the war on terror is far from over. The Alliance must still address the root causes of the Conflict. The Blueprint presents a viable and implementable plan for it to do that.

NEVER AGAIN
In closing, as a witness to the brutality of October 7 and civilian volunteer with the IDF, I implore my new friends, the people of Israel, use the ceasefire and the bringing home of the hostages as a new starting point to end the cycle of violence of the Conflict and create a movement of “NEVER AGAIN.” With the now clear and unwavering support of the United States, Never Again shall Hamas rule or find sanctuary in Gaza. Never Again shall Hamas be allowed to use the Palestinian people as a weapon of war against Israel. Show your support for peace for the Palestinian people by not allowing them to miss this opportunity by advocating that peace be imposed on them. It starts with creating the Alliance of Nations to govern Gaza and the West Bank.

About the Author
Richard J. Annen is the Director of the Center for Conflict Resolution Strategies (CCRS) located in San Diego, California. CCRS's mission is to analyze real world human conflicts, crisis, and problems and develop detailed, fact-based, implementable resolution strategies. Prior to establishing CCRS, Mr. Annen was a board-certified trial attorney specializing in business litigation. Mr. Annen received his Juris Doctor and Master of Business Administration degrees from the University of Notre Dame, after graduating from Western Michigan University in his home town of Kalamazoo, Michigan. Mr. Annen is the author of "Blueprint for an Imposed Peace to End the Israeli Palestinian Conflict," which is available at www.centerforconflictresolutionstrategies.com or email your request for a copy to rannen.ccrs@gmail.com. Mr. Annen served as a civilian volunteer with the IDF and now serves as a US ambassador for Sar-El (The National Project for Volunteers for Israel), a non-profit service organization acting under the direction of the Israeli Logistics Corps, charged with recruiting civilian volunteers to support the IDF.
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