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Are Russian Missiles Attacking NATO Countries? Myths and Truth.

Poland said a "Russian-made missile" fell on a village near the Ukraine border on Tuesday, killing two people. Photo credit: Times of Israel.
Poland said a "Russian-made missile" fell on a village near the Ukraine border on Tuesday, killing two people. Photo credit: Times of Israel.

“If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed”, Mein Kampf (My Struggle) by Adolf Hitler, 1925.

This Nazi postulate was assimilated by modern Ukrainian official propaganda and voiced by Oleksii Arestovych, an Adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine on Strategic Communications in the Field of National Security and Defense:

One of the central national ideas of Ukraine is to lie to yourself and others as much as possible. Because if you tell the truth, everything will collapse. And you have to come up with something else. This is our basic unbalanced contradiction.

Following The Russo-Ukraine War through the lens of the media. Myths and truth. previously published by the author, this new publication is intended not only to shed light on the realities of what happened, but to once again demonstrate how fake news spread by governments and the mainstream media provoke 3d World War, including nuclear risks that our modern but fragile world is exposed to.

First news of the discussed incident was reported by Polish Radio ZET, which said on November 15th that two missiles had hit Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland about six kilometers (3.5 miles) from the border with Ukraine, killing two men, while the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces reported that Moscow’s forces launched 90 missiles and more than 10 attack drones throughout the country, leaving millions of households without power. They also claimed that 77 missiles and 10 drones were downed by the Ukrainian Air Defense.

Indeed, Russia launched about 110 high-precision cruise missiles of Kh-101 and Kalibr types, but the author would like to recall readers that since March, Ukrainian and NATO sources have been persistently reporting that Russia is suffering the failure rate of some high-precision missiles reaches 60%, and their arsenals are running out.

The Polish foreign ministry later said a weapon fell on Przewodow at 3:40pm (14:40 GMT). President Duda said “it was most likely a Russian-made missile”, but noted Warsaw had no conclusive evidence on who fired it and that the incident was still under investigation.

WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) – The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.

Lt. Gen. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy intelligence chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry claimed on August 27 that Russia has used approximately 55 percent of its missile stockpile since its February 24 invasion of the country.

Russia lacks the missiles to mount attacks of this sort often, as it is running out of stocks and the Ukrainians are claiming a high success rate in intercepting many of those already used,” Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at King’s College London wrote on October 14, 2022.

But actually it seems that Russian high-precision missiles proved to be a difficult nut to crack for the Ukrainian Air Defense operates Soviet-made and NATO standards. The video filmed on the same day of on November 15th demonstrates the failed attempt to intercept even a bearded  Kh-101, which is a reason for the persistently launched provocative disinformation and ongoing diplomatic blackmail as well as political pressure on the Israeli government by Ukraine, with the active support of the US envoy to Israel Tom Nides, to temptate Israel into supplying arms.

Anyhow, the destruction of the Israeli-made and NATO weapons as well as foreign mercenaries is a top Russian priority in a battlefield. In the issue, Israeli-made Gaia Amir MRAP armored vehicles footage of which was published on the Ukraine Weapons Tracker Twitter, was revealingly destroyed by the Russian Kalashnikov-made Lancet-3 kamikaze UAV in the Kherson region on the same day as shown in the attached video.

Nevertheless, the strike map attached below shows that the Ukrainian report concerning intercepted Russian missiles doesn’t meet the reality. The Polish Przewodow actually located in the opposite direction from the striked targets and about of 118km away from the nearest targets located nearby Lviv as well as 60km North West from the nearest Ukrainian Air-Defense base stationed nearby Kamianka-Buzka. It is also important to note that Russia does not attack Ukrainian strategic targets located in the border 35 km strip in order to avoid such unwanted conflicts.

The map of the Russian airstrike on November 15. Credit: @Rybar Telegram

Despite the fact that prior the incident, a NATO aviation group accompanied by NATO AWACS E-3A LX-N90448 and three USAF KC-135 Stratotankers (## 61-0267, 63-8874 and 63-8878) as well as USAF reconnaissance aircraft RC-135W #62-4138 appeared in the area, the subsequent contradictory statements by officials and the media demonstrate a provocative play on words, basic intelligence misunderstanding and the absurdity of the current critical situation:

Russian missiles have killed two people” in NATO member Poland, a senior US intelligence official has told the AP news agency. “Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called an urgent meeting to discuss national security”, a government spokesman said …, Sky News & Associate Press, 15 Nov 2022.

15 Nov 2022, the USDoD Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder: We are aware of the press reports alleging that two Russian missiles have struck a location inside Poland near the Ukraine border. I can tell you that we don’t have any information at this time to corroborate those reports and are looking into this further.” When asked about administration’s comments on defending NATO territory he says, “When it comes to our security commitments and Article 5 we’ve been crystal clear that we will defend every inch of NATO territory.”

16 Nov 2022, “A missile that killed two people in Poland was probably not fired from Russia”, Joe Biden, the US President, said holding talks with leaders of Western allies, including Rishi Sunak, amid concerns the Ukraine conflict could spill into neighboring countries. According to US officials, initial findings suggested that the missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile, according to reports. Asked whether it was too early to say if the missile was fired from Russia, Mr Biden said: There is preliminary information that contests that. I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate it, but it is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia but we’ll see.” Polish President Andrzej Duda said it was “most likely a Russian-made missile”, but there was no concrete evidence of who fired it, and the incident was a one-off.

17 Nov 2022, “In a conference with reporters, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that he had no doubt the missile strike that killed two people in Poland, was not caused by a Ukrainian missile.”, Daily Mail.

The incident also demonstrates the weakness of the Polish component as part of the integrated NATO air defense (NATO IAMD).

However, the author, having collected and analyzed information detailed herein about the defeat of both a residential building in Kyiv (Pechersk district)

A damaged building seen at the scene of Russian shelling in Kyiv, Ukraine, November 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Kravchenko). Source: Time of Israel.

as well as a Polish tractor in Przewodow, at least 10 hours before the appearance of all these statements mentioned above, informed a number of Israeli journalists occasionally consulted by him that all the destruction was the result of the actions of Ukrainian air defense. But none of them dared to voice those conclusions until President Biden’s statement was released. But only after the publication of this statement by Biden, the real legend of world military journalism, whom the author had the honor to advise after the tragic accident of the Russian IL-20, shot down by the Russian Air Force in 2018, was interviewed and admitted, unfortunately 9 months late, that all the damage to the residential buildings in Kyiv, which he saw in February 2022, were caused by Ukrainian air defense. He also shared his personal experience arguing that the Ukrainian leadership cannot be trusted.

A veteran war correspondent and the Israel Prize (2018) laureate , Col (Ret.) Ron Ben-Yishai is being interviewed on November 16. Credit: Ynet.co.il

Actually, Ukrainian 540th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment (Military Unit: А4623 under the command of Col. Volodimir Bragin stationed nearby Kamianka-Buzka (50.0554N, 24.1519E) and includes among others three Soviet-era S-300-PT-1 divisions (##5401, 5403 and 5404) stationed nearby Batiatychi and Semenivka villages as well as at the Yavoriv military base. One of S-300-PT-1 divisions was redeployed at the Lutsk military airbase in March 2021 and since then the air defense sector between Lviv and Lutsk is under responsibility of 540th Regiment under the Air Command West stationed in Lviv.

On November 15, the day of Russian missile strikes, one of the S-300-PT-1 batteries was on duty Chervonograd (55 km northwest of Lvov and 25km of Przewodow). The 540th regiment is considered the best unit in Ukrainian Air Defense and they survived Russian SEAD mission being redeployed in advance to reserve positions prior February, 24.

The first S-300PT were manufacturing since 1975, but S-300PT-1 operating by Ukraine are manufactured in 1985-1988 and they are armed with Soviet-made 5V55R missiles, which were assembled by the Kyiv corporation Artem (the Luch corporation since 2020) at its branch No.1 located in the Kiev suburb (Zhuliany, the Vizar plant since 1996) from various components produced by many factories of the Soviet military industry scattered throughout the former USSR. The Vizar plant, which was completely destroyed on February 14-15, was responsible, among other things, for the periodic maintenance of Ukrainian 5V55R missiles.

The 5V55R missile has an engagement range of 5–75 km at 2 km/sec and utilizes a radio-controlled signal guidance mechanism combined with semi-active radar homing (SARH). The interceptor utilizes 5Zh92 high-explosive fragmentation warhead of 20000 cubic fragments and sustainer charge of solid fuel which contain 900 kg of gunpowder in the engine and 90 kg of hexogen in the warhead. This kind of the SARH missiles self-destruct 15 seconds after the loss of the radar illumination beam reflected from the target.

Despite rumors in the media about the real capabilities of the 5V55R missiles used to hit ground targets with known coordinates, the author admits the version of the unsuccessful interception and the subsequent self-destruction of the interceptor after 15 seconds during which the 5V55R is able to cover up to 30 km, as a result of which its fragments, including engine and fuel tank, the fastening elements of which were found in the area of ​​​​the incident, caused the tragedy in Przewodow.

Odłamek domniemanej rakiety, która spadła w Przewodowie
The debris, which locals claim to be that of a missile, is pictured at the site of an explosion in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine. Credit: Twitter.

As the old saying goes, “For they that sleep with dogs, shall rise with fleas.”

This incident is not the first and, apparently, not the last when Ukrainian weapons strike NATO countries, as listed below:

  1. March 2 – Ukrainian Soviet-era missile fired by the S-300 air defense system destroyed a Romanian MiG-21 fighter. The pilot is dead.
  2. March 2 – Ukrainian Soviet-era air defense shot down a Romanian military transport helicopter Mi-8, which flew out to look for a MiG-21 fighter shot down by Ukraine. The crew died.
  3. March 3 – Estonian bulk carrier Helt was blown up by a Ukrainian Soviet-era naval mine off the coast of Odessa. 4 people are missing.
  4. March 10 – Ukrainian Soviet-era UAV Tu-141 “Swift” attacked Zagreb. Luckily, no one died.
  5. September 9 – a Romanian minesweeper was blown up by a Ukrainian naval mine near Constanta. Luckily, there were no fatalities.
  6. November 9 – A Turkish boat was blown up by a Ukrainian Soviet-era naval mine off the coast of Turkey. Luckily, no one died.

All of the above is just a regular sequence of connecting few historical events as followings:

Operation Belladonna. Credit: redstreetjournal.com

Operation Belladonna, Cartel (Aerodynamic), Cryptonym and Aebath (since 1946):       “…By April 1946, the Strategic Services Unit had established contact with the Ukrainian resistance movement in Western Europe. Hesitant at first, SSU’s contact marked the start of one of the CIA’s oldest covert action projects. It also marked the beginning of a controversial relationship between the Agency and a large Eastern European population in which many had supported Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union. While sharing a hatred for Russian imperialism and Soviet Communism, many Ukrainians also despised Poles and Jews. The war that passed over Ukraine became deeply entangled in ancient hatreds; the Agency’s Cold War support to the Ukrainian émigré struggle also became entwined with these age-old conflicts.  Throughout 1946, American intelligence grew interested in anti-Soviet resistance movements (www.cia.org)

The Future of NATO. Author, George Soros. Publisher, Soros Foundations, 1993:“…Then we would have the beginnings of an architecture for a new world order. It is based on the United States as the remaining superpower and on open society as the organizing principle. It consists of a series of alliances, the most important of which is NATO and, through NATO, the Partnership for Peace which girds the Northern Hemisphere. The United States would not be called upon to act as the policeman of the world. When it acts, it would act in conjunction with others. Incidentally, the combination of manpower from Eastern Europe with the technical capabilities of NATO would greatly enhance the military potential of the Partnership because it would reduce the risk of body bags for NATO countries, which is the main constraint on their willingness to act. This is a viable alternative to the looming world disorder…

Operations Orbital and Interflex (since 2014): 17 Nov 2022, Former President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said that he needed the Minsk agreements in order to get at least four years for the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to him, he did not set himself the goal of fulfilling the agreements. “*This time was required* to form the Ukrainian armed forces, build the Ukrainian economy and train the Ukrainian military together with NATO to create the best armed forces in Eastern Europe, which were formed according to NATO standards”. Poroshenko also noted that the future of his country depends much more on the wisdom of the American people than on the Ukrainians themselves. In his opinion, Ukraine “definitely has bipartisan support in the US.” In addition, the politician announced the dominance of Russia, comparing the military potentials of Moscow and Kyiv. According to him, Russia has ten times more artillery and 30 times more ammunition. Poroshenko stressed that the Russians have a “significant superiority” in aviation. “We need to do everything to supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft missile systems, F-16 and A-10 aircraft in order to balance Russia’s offensive potential. We have nothing to protect the troops from air strikes. We need to launch Lend-Lease,” Poroshenko added.

Meanwhile, while Ukraine is turning into Lebanon v.2.0, following the meeting in Ankara on November 14 between CIA Director Bill Burns and his Russian intelligence counterpart, Sergey Naryshkin, the head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, where they talked about the consequences of nuclear weapons, on November 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin held in the Kremlin a face-to-face, for the first time this year, operational meeting with permanent members of the Security Council of the Russian Federation to discuss issues of improving Federal Civil Defense.

About the Author
Alexander Portnoy holds an MSc EE degree being an internationally experienced (40+) expert in Military and Mission Critical sectors as well as currently is an OSINT Analyst in Geopolitical and Military affairs focusing on Russia and China including their participation in the Great Power Competition in the Middle East as well as advising the Israeli Intelligence Community, Knesset Lawmakers and War Reporters.
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