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As Turkey threatens Israel, Azerbaijan can be a peace broker

Erdogan could order Islamist militias to deploy along the Israeli border with Syria, creating a highly combustible reality

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has created new opportunities for Israel, as well as new threats. One of the gravest of them is an indirect or even direct confrontation with Turkey in Syria.

Turkey decisively supports the new Hayat Tahrir Al Sham regime in Syria. The rebel group’s Islamist origins – in essence, the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood – are compatible with the ideology of Recep Erdogan, Turkey’s ruler.

Erdogan is deeply motivated by a desire to restore the great Ottoman Empire, transforming Turkey into the leader of the Muslim world. He seeks to soften the resistance of Arab governments to his leadership through rapprochement, mainly economic, with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. He curries the support of Arab public opinion through flamboyant anti-Israeli rhetoric, presenting himself as the devoted defender of the Palestinian cause.

Erdogan has been attempting to advance his imperial aspirations through the establishment of military and naval bases in Somalia, Qatar, and Western Libya, which is dominated by an Islamist government. The marine treaty Erdogan signed with the Libyan government is, in fact, an attempt to take over a broad strip of hundreds of kilometers across the Mediterranean.

If Erdogan were to order the Islamist militias that are loyal to him to deploy along the Israeli border with southern Syria, it could create a highly combustible reality, reminiscent of Hamas’s presence in Gaza. Miscalculations in such an explosive situation could spark a confrontation that is in nobody’s interest. It is essential to prevent such a scenario and this can only be accomplished through Israeli-Turkish dialogue.

Which is where the Republic of Azerbaijan comes in. Baku is uniquely suited to play the constructive role of an active mediator that both sides accept and respect. Azerbaijan is a secular Shite state, modern and enlightened. It supported, in myriad ways, the US war effort in Afghanistan. And its natural resources contribute substantially to Europe’s energy security.

Azerbaijan is a true friend of Israel, a strategic ally. I was privileged to establish this alliance in December 1993 with its founding president Heydar Aliyev. This alliance has historic roots. Even in the Soviet era, the Jews in Azerbaijan enjoyed a vibrant community life, without suffering from antisemitism. Well-known Jewish figures lived and created there, their names commemorated even today in the streets of Baku. Azerbaijan played an important role in the war against Nazi Germany. Half of the more than 600 thousand Azeris who fought in this war were killed in battle. The South Caucasus republic has succeeded in safeguarding its secular character, although it is Iran’s immediate neighbor. Azerbaijan is also a close ally of Turkey, as the Azeri people and the Turkish people are ethnically related.

Armenia occupied a fifth of Azerbaijan’s historic territory for three decades, beyond the Karabakh enclave and around it. For three decades, the international community failed to bring about an agreement by implementing the principle of “territories for peace.” In 2020, President Ilham Aliyev decided to end the Armenian occupation by force. In this war, in which Azerbaijan was victorious, its main supporters were Turkey and Israel, providing Azerbaijan with military technologies. Therefore, the people of Azerbaijan feel a sense of gratitude to both Turkey and Israel.

Against the backdrop of this triangle of friendship, it is natural for Azerbaijan to serve as a constructive mediator between Turkey and Israel, advancing arrangements that would prevent an unnecessary confrontation in southern Syria.

About the Author
Dr. Ephraim Sneh is a retired IDF general, served as a minister and deputy minister of defense in Israeli governments and is a member of the board of “Commanders for Israel’s Security”.
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