Assad’s collapses adds turmoil in the Indo-Mediterranean

The Baathist regime in Syria has collapsed, leaving another nation in the cradle of civilizations along the Indo-Mediterranean facing an uncertain future. The civil war, ignited during the “Arab Spring” under Obama’s presidency, has ended—not primarily due to US intervention, CIA tactics, or Mossad operations, but as a direct result of the power vacuum created by Israel’s intensified actions against Iran and its proxies following the Hamas attacks on October 7.

Assad’s fall is linked to Russia’s waning influence in the Middle East, strained further by the war in Ukraine. Iran’s inability to sustain its proxies has also become evident. The “pager episode,” where Israeli intelligence targeted Hezbollah’s senior leadership, has exacerbated Assad’s challenges, rendering him dependent on support from Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia—support that has since faltered.

Although some credit Turkish President Erdogan with accelerating Assad’s fall, it seems implausible that Erdogan would openly defy Vladimir Putin, the Iranian regime, and Qatar. Nevertheless, disbelief dominates on the ground as unexpected alliances and strategies emerge.

The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), controlling vast regions including the Beirut-Tehran highway, are surprised by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) conciliatory moves in Aleppo. Formerly linked to Al-Qaeda, HTS now under Abu Mohammad al-Julani’s leadership, has rebranded and requested the SDF withdraw armed forces from Aleppo, proposing civilian governance. Yet, the SDF hesitates to leave Kurdish civilians unprotected and has begun relocating displaced Kurds from Afrin to Rojava as winter looms.

The collapse of Damascus, following Homs’s fall to rebels, has prompted reports of Assad’s flight and a power transfer to a former prime minister proposing elections. Meanwhile, Druze militias have cleared ISIS-ISIL and Assad loyalists from territories near Jordan and Israel. Concerns remain over the resurgence of ISIS and Erdogan-backed Islamist groups.

Russia’s loss of the Hmeimim airbase and the Tartous naval facility, pivotal for its Mediterranean operations, underscores Moscow’s diminishing grip on the region. Iran, initially vocal in support of Assad, has discreetly retreated from Damascus.

Turkey’s backing of extremists targeting Kurdish towns intensifies, with Kobani under threat. The SDF, despite its weakening position, continues to embody a stabilizing force, advocating democracy, gender equality, and minority rights.

Syria’s future depends on urgent stabilization efforts. Preventing ISIS’s resurgence and curbing Islamist factions is critical. International pressure on Erdogan to cease attacks on Kurds and withdraw proxies is essential to avoid further exploitation of the power vacuum. Additionally, dialogue with HTS and similar groups is necessary to prevent alliances with external powers like Russia or China and to thwart the rise of extremists.

A dire humanitarian crisis exacerbates Syria’s challenges, with IDPs fleeing in harsh winter conditions. The West, Saudi Arabia, India, and allies must act decisively to provide aid and foster reconciliation. Stabilizing Syria could pave the way for peace across the region, influencing Lebanon, Israel, and Iraq. This moment is pivotal for shaping Middle Eastern stability and global peace.