Baghdad’s Trojan Horse: Iran’s Hidden Army – Part 1
Iran’s proxies in Iraqi uniforms and the spectre of regional catastrophe
Three important strategic questions confront Israel’s security as tensions with Iran escalate. First, what if Iran’s retaliation against Israel is launched not from Tehran but from Iraqi soil under the cover of the Iraqi army? Second, could a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities trigger a multi-front war that draws Israeli forces into defending against sustained attacks originating from both Iraq and Syria? And third, is Israel prepared for the scenario in which Iranian proxies and Turkish-backed Sunni jihadists unite in a coordinated assault on its northern borders and beyond?
Beneath the surface of Iraq’s official security apparatus lies a parallel force whose loyalty lies not in Baghdad but in Tehran. The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an ostensibly Iraqi institution, have become the vehicle through which Iran maintains a powerful forward presence. These units operate with the full legal cover of the Iraqi state, receiving government salaries and operating under the prime minister’s nominal command. In practice, however, they answer to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Should Israel or the United States launch a significant military operation against Iran, the consequences for Israel would be immediate and severe. During the conflict itself, Iranian proxies embedded in the PMF would activate as a second front. These groups have already demonstrated their reach through repeated attacks on American positions in Iraq and Syria. In the event of open war, their missile and drone capabilities, honed with Iranian support, could be turned against Israeli interests or American assets from Iraqi territory. More ominously, they could move to destabilise the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the only area of the country that has achieved genuine security, economic growth and relative political pluralism.
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), based in Erbil, has long been a thorn in Tehran’s side. It maintains close ties with the West, hosts international oil companies and has resisted the expansion of Iranian influence. Iranian proxies embedded in the PMF have already shown their willingness to threaten Kurdish areas. A broader war would provide the perfect pretext for a coordinated assault on Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, potentially opening a new front that stretches Israeli and Western resources thin. For Israel, this would mean diverted air defences, stretched intelligence assets and the risk of a multi-front conflict at a time when its own borders are already under pressure.
The danger does not end when the shooting stops. In the post-war phase, a weakened but vengeful Iran would use its Iraqi proxies to punish the region and, by extension, Israel. The consequences would be devastating for Iraq and directly threatening to Israeli security. Sectarian massacres against Sunnis in mixed provinces would follow, echoing the 2014–2017 anti-ISIS campaigns but now without any common enemy. Iraq’s fragile government would collapse under the weight of militias who already treat the prime minister as a figurehead. A return to sectarian bloodletting, the collapse of the already fragile central government and the possible fragmentation of the state would create a power vacuum that Iranian proxies could exploit to consolidate control over key oil routes and border areas.
This chaos would spill over into a direct threat to Israel. A fragmented Iraq, dominated by pro-Iranian militias, would become a launchpad for sustained low-level warfare against Israeli and Western interests. The militias would not need to win a conventional war; they would simply need to keep the region in perpetual instability, forcing Israel to maintain heightened alert across multiple fronts. The Kurdistan Region, long a reliable partner for Israel, could be overrun or isolated, depriving Jerusalem of a strategic foothold in northern Iraq.
Ayatollah Khamenei has already issued a fatwa for jihad against the United States and Israel should Iran be attacked. Similar fatwas may follow from Sunni religious figures to unite against their common enemy Israel. The main beneficiary of the aftermath of this war will be Turkey, not Israel.
The groups driving this threat are not fringe actors. They form the core of the PMF’s combat power and control key economic and security levers. Their leaders have repeatedly affirmed their allegiance to Iran’s Supreme Leader. When the missiles start flying, these militias will not hesitate to act, and the Iraqi uniform they wear will offer them political protection while they do so.
(Continues in Part Two)
Note:
The main Iranian proxy militias operating within the PMF in Iraq are: Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, the Badr Organisation, Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada and Kata’ib al-Imam Ali.
