Beyond Iran: The Emerging Threat from Turkey

In the intricate arena of global geopolitics, the vigilance of nations must extend beyond immediate threats to recognize and address those that are also not so immediate. While Israel rightly channels our efforts toward the well-established challenges posed by Iran, we must not overlook a growing menace to our northwest: Turkey. This is not merely an exercise in caution but a call to recognize an evolving threat that warrants urgent and strategic attention.

An Ottoman Dream
“Turkey will never be a passive observer to developments in the Middle East. We are actively involved in every conflict and negotiation because our history, our geography, and our interests demand it. We will continue to assert our presence and influence in the region.”
– Erdoğan

Under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey has embarked on a path reminiscent of its Ottoman past, reflecting a troubling resurgence of ambitions that extend beyond mere regional influence and similar to those of Iran. Erdoğan’s vision seeks to reassert Turkey’s dominance over historical territories and assert its power more aggressively. This ambition is manifest in a series of actions both military and strategic, marking a decisive shift from a previously more restrained foreign policy stance.

Turkey’s recent military operations in northern Syria—Operation Euphrates Shield (2016), Operation Olive Branch (2018), Operation Peace Spring (2019) and most recently again in 2024—were aimed at curbing Kurdish forces and enhancing regional influence. Turkey’s military support to Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict also highlights its intent to play a central role in regional geopolitics.

Turkey’s involvement in Libya, through military aid to the Government of National Accord (GNA), underscores its strategic interest in controlling oil resources. Turkey’s bolstered relationship with Qatar, characterized by military cooperation and investment, reflects a strategic move to counterbalance Saudi and UAE influence. It is important here not to dismiss Qatar due to her reserved contributions to world affairs. While for the majority of the world’s Muslims, Saudi Arabia is the symbolic figurehead of Islam, Qatar is the bank.

The dream of reestablishing some semblance of the Ottoman Empire is not just rhetoric. It shapes Turkey’s actions and policies, impacting its relations with neighboring countries and its stance on global issues. Erdoğan’s emphasis on Turkey’s Ottoman heritage permeates both domestic and foreign policy, fostering relationships with Muslim-majority countries and communities linked to the Ottoman Empire. This in part explains his kinship with the Palestinians.

One can not reestablish an empire without first ruling with absolute authority as an emperor. To accomplish this, Erdoğan has set out to unite a majority of Turkey’s interest groups behind his Islamist-conservaive AKP. There is no more convenient way to unite oppressed Muslims than the region’s favorite historical scapegoat: Israel.

When the Ottoman Empire imploded at the end of the First World War, antisemitism in Europe was raging higher than ever. This was especially prominent among the former Central Powers, whose populations were disgruntled and confused about the sacrifices they had made only to be met with worldwide condemnation, disdain and monetary punishment. This became a breeding ground for antisemitism, particularly within the Young Turks nationalist movement.

The calamity of the holocaust all but annihilated the Jews of Europe, yet within three years’ time, the Jews had fought successfully against overwhelming odds to self-determine and reestablish the State of Israel. The Turks did not enjoy these successes. The conclusion of the First World War dragged what was left of the Ottoman Empire down with it. Simply put, an integral part of Turkish ultranationalism is jealousy of the Jews.

Complex Alliances and Rivalries
“Turkey is not just a country; it’s a crossroads of continents, a bridge between East and West, and a partner with the power to reshape the geopolitical landscape.”
— Ahmet Davutoğlu, former Prime Minister of Turkey

Turkey’s international relationships are intricate, marked by a blend of alliances and rivalries that shape its geopolitical stance. The 2016 coup attempt, which Erdoğan attributes to Western interference, has strained relations with the United States and fostered a growing affinity with Russia. This shift illustrates a changing geopolitical landscape, as Turkey navigates a complex relationship with NATO.

Turkey’s NATO membership provides significant strategic benefits, including security guarantees and access to advanced military technology. Article 5 obligates other NATO members to come to Turkey’s aid in the event they are attacked. For example, were Turkey to pursue a nuclear weapons program, Israel could not repeat the successful bombings of the Iraqi (1981) and Syrian (2007) nuclear programs without risking war with, or at least alienation from our closest allies. Turkey is effectively shielded from a preemptive Israeli strike.

However, this partnership also constrains Turkey’s regional actions. Turkey has been trying unsuccessfully to join the EU since 1987. The European nations essentially tease Turkey with admission, in a somewhat successful effort to exact concessions from Ankara.

Europeans, most famously former French President Nikolas Sarkozy, have expressed concerns about Turkey’s predominantly Muslim identity, fearing it might challenge European cultural norms and values. Issues such as human rights, freedom of the press, judicial independence and foreign policy have also raised red flags. The Cyprus dispute, in particular, remains a significant barrier, as Turkey does not recognize the Republic of Cyprus.

The EU-Turkey migration deal of 2016, where Turkey agreed to curb the flow of migrants into Europe in exchange for financial aid and other concessions, is further evidence of the complicated partnership-of-convenience that defines the relationship between the EU and Turkey.

Turkey’s support for terrorist groups, such as Hamas, reflects a broader strategy to destabilize the region and challenge Israeli security. This embrace of such organizations highlights Turkey’s intent to undermine not only Israeli stability, but also to express contempt towards her European neighbors.

Turkey’s relationship with Israel has always been one of mutual interest. The warm relations and security cooperation of the early 2000s was the exception, not the rule. It was enjoyed when the mood throughout the Muslim world facilitated it following the Oslo Accords, and because Turkey wanted to sit out the American war on terror while continuing to work towards joining the EU.

Hope for a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict amongst Arabs is lower than ever, and Erdoğan is less and less interested in cultivating a relationship with America or Europe. As he cozies up more to Russia, it no longer makes sense to support Israel.

Strategic and Economic Implications
“Turkey is the only country that can control the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the eastern Mediterranean.”
– Henry Kissenger

Turkey’s strategic position enhances its geopolitical leverage. Control over crucial maritime chokepoints, such as the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, allows Turkey to influence the flow of essential resources like oil from the Middle East and wheat from Ukraine. Turkey’s dominance extends to the Mediterranean, where its access to Libyan oil and control over strategic maritime routes amplifies its influence. There is a reason why Constantinople is the most fought over city in human history.

Economically, Turkey commands significant power as the largest Muslim-majority economy. Its robust manufacturing sector, increasingly independent of Chinese influence, and its dynamic military industry bolster its regional and global standing. Turkey’s energy exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly in contested waters off Cyprus, have led to tensions with Greece and the European Union, further illustrating its ambition to assert control over potential energy resources. Turkey’s role as a middleman in trade between the West and Russia, coupled with its ability to withstand potential disruptions in the global trade order, underscores its economic resilience and strategic importance.

Despite these strengths, Turkey faces internal challenges, including high inflation and economic instability. This won’t last. Its youthful demographic, a major asset in an era where the majority of nations face a crisis of both urbanization and aging, will drive economic growth with consistent labor supply while also providing the necessary bodies for a potential military conflict.

Israel’s economy, although more advanced, is much smaller. Israel boasts a highly educated workforce and far better technological innovation compared to Turkey. Israel is also astonishingly strong at food production, leading the world in milk production per cow and the desalination of seawater. However, Israel’s economy also faces significant weaknesses, such as high cost of living, geopolitical isolation and despite the recent offshore gas discoveries of Tamar and Leviathan – dependence on foreign energy imports.

Most of Israel’s electricity is produced by natural gas, most of which is domestically produced. While oil constitutes a smaller fraction of Israel’s energy consumption, it remains critical for transportation and especially for military function. For this reason, Israel maintains a strategic oil reserve intended to cover about 90 days of national consumption. This would be wholly insufficient in a military conflict with Turkey. Israel’s oil supply is almost entirely imported from Russia and Kazakhstan. This reliance is a key vulnerability that would almost certainly be exploited in a potential confrontation with Turkey.

Military Capabilities and Regional Influence
“The most dangerous thing in the world is to have two great powers with large military forces in close proximity.”
– Basil Liddell Hart

Bolstered by NATO support and a substantial domestic military industry, Turkey’s military capabilities are formidable. While not yet a full blue-water navy, Turkey possesses significant Naval power projection, capable of securing their control over Libyan oil fields while simultaneously attempting to blockade Israel and/or threaten our offshore energy rigs.

The air is the arena in which Israel possesses our greatest strategic advantage over Turkey. The Turkish Air Force does not possess fifth-generation aircraft. Originally part of the F35 program, Turkey was fired by the Americans after their purchase of the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft battery – a challenge of its own for Israeli warplanes. The Turkish air force instead sports 200+ F16s, still a formidable force, and is also developing their own domestic fighter. The TAI TF-X is intended to be a fifth-generation fighter, featuring stealth characteristics, advanced avionics, and next-generation capabilities making it a direct competitor for the F35. While it is unlikely to best Israel’s pilots alone, it could eventually form a key part of a holistic air defense network – limiting Israel’s advantage in the air to a more defensive role. Lastly, Turkey’s domestic drone production has rapidly scaled in both quality and quantity, becoming a favorite of Ukraine in their current conflict with Russia.

Israel’s military is better trained, equipped and combat experienced, but smaller in size. The IDF possesses a significant edge in technological sophistication (particularly missile defense, electronic warfare, intelligence and naval and air technology). Another key differentiator is the extremely high morale in the IDF. Whereas Turkey is still recovering from Erdogan’s purge of their officer corps following the failed coup, on October 7th, the IDF managed the fastest callup of reserves in modern history.

It is the proximity of these formidable military forces, coupled with historical rivalries, that underscores the potential for conflict. Although direct conflict between Turkey and Israel has to date been largely avoided, this is in part due to common strategic interests that no longer exist.

How It Will Happen

A potential conflict between Israel and Turkey will arise from one or several complex geopolitical situations. One possible scenario involves Turkey’s disillusionment with its European Union accession prospects. Eventually Erdoğan will accept or be flat out told Turkey is not welcome in the EU, perhaps even NATO. Feeling marginalized and rebuffed by the West, Turkey might redirect its frustrations outward, seeking to assert its influence and relevance through aggressive foreign policies. This could manifest in increased support for Palestinian and Islamist terror groups, demanding an Israeli response.

Another possibility stems from Turkey’s role as a prominent Islamic power. Should Israel become involved in a high-profile conflict with Muslim communities, Turkey, under its current leadership, might feel compelled to act out of religious and ideological solidarity. This sense of duty could drive Turkey to take a more confrontational stance against Israel, potentially leading to direct confrontations or proxy conflicts between the two powers.

Energy resources could also be a flashpoint. As regional competition over energy assets intensifies, Turkey and Israel could find themselves at odds over control of natural gas resources and energy routes in the mediterranean. Turkey’s growing ambitions coupled with Israel’s interests in securing its energy infrastructure could lead to naval or air skirmishes over maritime boundaries and exploration rights.

Lastly, the broader geopolitical landscape, including Russia’s influence, could play a role. In a scenario reminiscent of Cold War dynamics, Russia might seek to leverage Turkey as a proxy to challenge Israeli and American interests in the region. By encouraging or directly supporting Turkish aggression against Israel, Russia could aim to destabilize the region and complicate American strategic interests, adding another layer of complexity to the potential conflict. Last but not least there is the sheer proximity of the two great military powers and the underlying potential for conflict therein.

A Threat We Cannot Ignore

As Israel addresses the immediate threat posed by Iran, we must remain vigilant regarding other long term threats, including the emerging challenge from Turkey. The resurgence of Ottoman ambitions, coupled with Turkey’s strategic leverage and economic and military power, represents a formidable challenge that demands attention. Israel must prepare the IDF and defense establishment for a potential conflict with Turkey, with the possible involvement of multiple state-level actors. This requires a shift in defense expenditure, focusing less on asymmetrical conflict, and more on more planes, ships, and in particular, the ability to produce ordnance domestically at scale.

Recognizing and addressing this evolving threat with foresight and strategic planning is imperative to safeguarding regional stability and ensuring Israel’s security in the face of this growing danger.