Biden’s two-month window of opportunity

Donald Trump’s comeback likely signals an American turn inward and declining involvement and investment of resources in distant countries, including Israel.

Trump sees himself as the ultimate deal-maker, suggesting he could achieve an end to the fighting in which Israel has been engaged for over a year, and perhaps a move toward additional regional peacemaking efforts. At the same time, the unpredictable new president could decide to “cut US losses” and reduce his country’s involvement in the region even without securing an arrangement to end the ongoing conflicts and instability. Whatever Trump’s term may augur, President Joe Biden still has two months left to establish facts on the ground and help advance a future vision for the region.

Trump, of all people, may implement Biden’s plan 

Although it sounds far-fetched, Biden and Trump actually see eye to eye on some Middle East-related issues, making cooperation between them beneficial for both the outgoing and incoming administrations.

Ending the wars and freeing the hostages

The overriding and urgent issue is the release of the dozens of Israeli hostages who have spent some 13 months in cruel Hamas captivity. Coordination between Biden and Trump could result in a deal to free the hostages and end the war in Gaza, as well as the war in Lebanon according to the proposals put forth in recent weeks by Biden’s envoy, Amos Hochstein. Ironically, Trump’s desire to end the fighting on both fronts before he takes office, and the powerful leverage he has over Netanyahu, could prompt him to implement the Biden Doctrine, which the incumbent president failed to do despite intense and tireless efforts.

A regional alliance

Trump and Biden also share an aspiration to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia, which will bring the entire Arab Sunni world into the fold. The support of two-thirds of the US Congress will be required to accept Saudi Arabia’s conditions for peace with Israel – a defense pact with the US and American approval for Saudi uranium enrichment for civilian purposes. Bipartisan coordination will be key to such congressional backing, and could begin right now, although it will only mature after Trump takes office.

The Iranian issue

Coordination between the incumbent and incoming administrations is also necessary in order to convey to the governments of Iran and Israel that the United States prefers a diplomatic solution to prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capabilities and activating its proxies in the region. The coordination is also important to signal Iran’s new government that it has an American partner for its attempts to return to a diplomatic track. While Trump’s repeated promise of a “better deal” with Iran never eventuated in his first term, it’s at least worth opening a path forward in the hopes that Trump “the dealmaker” might be convinced to notch a diplomatic win. It is important to leave the military option on the table, but as an element that facilitates negotiations rather than as a threat that prevents them.

Much can be achieved in 70 days

Along with the Middle Eastern issues on which Biden and Trump agree, they differ fundamentally on others. This is certainly true of the importance they attach to a liberal world order, to human rights law and norms, and to the role of the United States in promoting these values. These differences have immediate implications for the Middle East and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Accordingly, Biden, who is committed to the liberal-democratic agenda, can try to establish facts on the ground.

Recognition of a Palestinian state, and a red line against annexation

The most important and significant long-term step that Biden can take is to initiate a UN Security Council resolution to promote a vision of regional normalization based on recognition of a Palestinian state and cooperation among Israel, the US and moderate Arab states. This would enhance his legacy as well as saving Israel from a binational catastrophe.

At the very least, Biden could leave a lasting safeguard against the Smotrich-Huckabee-Netanyahu dreams of annexing the West Bank and destroying Israel’s democracy. The Biden administration could support, or at the very least abstain, from a UN Security Council Resolution that draws a bright red line against annexation. Such a resolution would significantly frustrate annexation plans, and prevent the international community from normalizing them.

To implement the lessons of failed past negotiations and revive support for a peace process in Israel and Palestine, Biden needs to coordinate with the permanent members of the Security Council and bring about recognition of a Palestinian state as a step before negotiations, rather than their end. Biden’s initiative would be welcomed warmly – recognition of a Palestinian state is one of the few issues on which all members of the Security Council agree.

Such a decision could also provide a basis of international legitimacy for Trump’s Israeli-Arab normalization plans, facilitating such action. But even if Trump is not interested in the establishment of a Palestinian state, he will be unable to overturn a Security Council resolution and its implications for international law.

Humanitarian aid

The Biden administration will also have to enforce the warning it sent Israel in mid-October that unless it restores the entry of full humanitarian aid to Gaza, it risks sanctions under US law that limits offensive military assistance to countries impending delivery of US humanitarian aid. Resuming humanitarian aid is vital to alleviating suffering in the Gaza Strip, as well as stopping Israel’s slide down the slippery slope of moral deterioration and international isolation.

Declarative actions

Biden would also do well to push for sanctions against senior Israeli officials, such as Ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, for supporting settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. Doing so would set an important precedent that could be followed by other countries, even if Trump revokes them for the US. The free world would do liberal Israelis a bi favor if it will send a clear message that violence against innocent Palestinians encouraged by extreme Israeli officials will not be tolerated.

President Biden should order an investigation into persistent reports of torture and sexual abuse of Palestinian prisoners. If these turn out to be founded, he should act in accordance with the Leahy Laws, which prohibit US assistance to foreign security force units proven to have committed gross violations of human rights. Such action would set a precedent for full enforcement of the Leahy Laws, and create an incentive for future governments to ensure compliance with human rights laws.

President Biden can and should publish a final presidential policy document (known as National Security Memorandum-20) on Israel’s compliance with US law that limits foreign offensive security assistance to countries violating human rights. Highlighting new concerns about Israel’s conduct would strengthen the legitimacy of NSM-20 and challenge the Trump administration to pursue this policy.

Although it is late in the day, President Biden can still revoke the ban imposed during the Trump administration on labeling products made in the settlements to indicate they were not made within Israel’s internationally recognized borders. Trump could revoke this move, but he would face international scrutiny for blurring the legal distinction between Israel and the territories it occupies, a distinction vital to prospects of the two-state vision.

Building a Palestinian State

Biden will not be able to implement his plan for opening a US consulate in East Jerusalem due to the Netanyahu government’s opposition, nor will he be able to make good on his promise to re-open the Palestinian mission in Washington due to congressional legislation. However, bolstering the Palestinian Authority while demanding that it undertake reforms is vital to strengthening its legitimacy among the Palestinian people and the international community. Pro-Western Arab states, first and foremost the United Arab Emirates, could help enhance Palestinian governance and economy. This process will be easier to implement under a new Palestinian leadership that enjoys greater legitimacy among the public and has less grievances vis-a-vis the countries of the region.

A joint US-Europe-Arab mechanism for regional stability

Europe and Saudi Arabia have already begun to set in motion a joint regional mechanism aimed at establishing a Palestinian state and stabilizing the Middle East. Initial meetings have been held at the UN and in Riyadh, with the participation of the United States. Biden must use his final days as president to strengthen US involvement in this mechanism, promote its institutionalization, and even begin to lead concrete decisions and actions on this platform. Such a mechanism, of which the US is a significant part but does not depend on the identity of the administration, will provide a positive framework for regional US activity that Trump can adopt and build on.

In summary, despair is not an option for the many liberals who hoped Harris would win the election. Those of us who believe in proactive diplomacy, who want to turn this crisis into an opportunity to advance the two-state vision within a regional alliance that ensures Israel’s existence and prosperity, must start acting, as soon as yesterday. Biden has a critical number of days left to help realize this vision, which he ardently shares.