Brace for Impact: Gutsy Precision Assassinations Restore Israeli Deterrence

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It’s hard not to notice that the entire country, perhaps indeed the world at large, is bracing for the impact of an impending multi-prong Iranian attack against Israel. Talking heads are promulgating much chatter in this regard, resultant from the successful targeted assassination of Hezbollah’s military leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut, an operation brazenly executed and openly claimed by Israeli officialdom. What makes for the assumed-to-be-direct, and not via proxy, Iranian attack is the demise of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on the same day, a precision attack which official Israel has not laid claim to but is widely assumed to have been executed by Israeli agents on Iranian soil.

The running assumption is that Tehran will retaliate fiercely for Israel’s purported killing of Haniyeh in Tehran as a violation of Iranian sovereignty and thus a response is due to what Iran views as an Israeli escalation of hostilities.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, what Israel has achieved collectively in the last many months of battle – crowned more specifically in last week’s successful precision operations combined with the now confirmed elimination of Hamas death-monger Mohamed Deif – is the actual resurrection of Israeli deterrence that had been destroyed in October 2023.

Consider that notwithstanding the chagrin of Islamic sympathizers, “Progressive” agitators and the sissy Western political leadership – Israel nevertheless has decimated Hamas-ruled Gaza, relegating the majority of it to rubble. Yes, it took too long to accomplish and was paid for, unnecessarily, with the lives of too many valiant Israeli soldiers. But it was done, irrespective of the belly-aching hysteria of Muslim radicals and their radical Left allies. Israel stuck to its guns, courageously ignoring the moral bankruptcy emanating from the Hague and the moral confusion clouding too many in Washington.

Notwithstanding its precarious position, Israel has demonstrated its resilience, even fending off internal weakness at its own radical/arrogant fringe, to respond in kind to the October 7th attack by relegating much of Gaza to rubble and exerting control over the critical segments of its topography. Should have been accomplished Dresden-style, but accomplished, nevertheless.

Ever since October 7th, Iran’s Hezbollah proxy has been engaged in what can only be described as low-intensity conflict with Israel. The Lebanese based militia poses a significant threat to Israel not just by way of potential invasion (ala October 7th) via the northern border, but by utilization of its sophisticated weaponry supposedly capable of near-Israeli-style precision attacks on Tel Aviv proper and much of Israel’s civilian infrastructure. It is widely understood that Hamas fully expected its cousins-in-arms at the north to mirror its invasion of the south, thus igniting execution of the Iranian plan to destroy Jewish sovereignty in the Mediterranean basin.

But Hassan Nasrallah hesitated. It remains to be seen if Hezbollah was caught off-guard and unprepared by the Hamas offensive or if, in fact, Yihiye Sinwar actually has delusions of grandeur viewing himself as the reincarnation of Salah-a-Din. If the latter, the mullahs in Lebanon and Iran might not be quite in tune with him, but they can’t slam him, at least not publicly.

Irrespective of the reasoning, they hesitated in joining. Sheikh Nasrallah’s assessment, it would seem, was that time was not yet ripe to achieve his ultimate goal. True, Hezbollah has a lethal arsenal and genuine army. Yes, Iran, through its proxies seeks the eradication of the Jewish national enterprise. But they still need the perfect storm in which to effectuate it.

So Nasrallah punted, literally, launching plenty of missiles into Israel and trading volleys of mortar fire and drone attacks. Just about everything short of an all-out war – for which there is a reason.

Putting aside the question of whether or not Sinwar singularly believes he’s Salah a-Din, Nasrallah doesn’t quite command his own fiefdom in the manner that the Gazan Angel of Death does. Nor does Nasrallah benefit from the empathy of the “Progressive Useful Idiots” to the degree that Sinwar does.

The Hamas-led Palestinian “resistance” benefits from the “downtrodden brown man who’s been displaced” narrative with which the once-Hippie professors from Woodstock, NY have brainwashed an entire generation. The residents of Lebanon do not and will not curry such favor with the Progressive mob. They haven’t been displaced and are far from monolithic.

Moreover, Nasrallah must also contend with internal Lebanese strife and historic, long-standing discord. If Hezbollah suddenly serves Israel with more warfare than it has been these last few months, for example taking out part of the Israeli power grid or hitting a glitzy Tel Aviv skyscraper, it will result in the Gaza treatment for southern Lebanon, including Beirut. Rubble. Decimation.

If Israel could do it in Gaza – negating the cacophony of mis-moral “Progressives” around the world – then Israel will do it in Lebanon where the symphony of sympathizers will be rather muted. The Lebanese are not “displaced and downtrodden” Palestinians.

Just as happened in 2006 when Nasrallah had to contend with domestic displeasure with his escapades that caused an Israeli invasion, today he faces a similar predicament. In fact, unlike 2006, this time not only is Israel fully deployed on its border and braced for war, the Israeli Homefront has shown its resilience in the wake of the initial disaster of October 7th.

Israel’s Gen Z actually showed-up in the wake of catastrophe (a far cry from what the Gen Z of all other Western nations would do in case of a cataclysmic event) and the overwhelming majority of the populace has demonstrated better than expected tolerance for this challenge to its sheer existence. Given the choice of turning the other cheek to Iranian-backed intransigence or responding ferociously, public opinion in Israel is braced for the later, let the world at large say what it may.

And Nasrallah knows it, as do the mullahs in Tehran.

There will be some retaliatory action – Tehran is, after all, humiliated – but not likely an escalation. By knocking off Hezbollah’s Shukr and Haniyeh of Hamas within a span of twelve hours, Israel sent a clear message: That she is ready, willing and able to treat Hezbollah and Lebanon the very same as was done to Hamas and Gaza.