The Blogs: Can Israel Survive Netanyahu’s Monumental Strategic Failures ?

Two weeks after the July 30, Israeli assassinations of Fuad Shukr, top deputy to Hassan Nasrallah, head of Hezbollah and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, Israel and the region still awaits the anticipated retaliation from both Iran and Hezbollah. [1]

Cease fire negotiations continue.[2] Extraordinary pressure has been put on Iran by the Biden Administration, Europe, Arab countries and even Russia to mitigate the retaliation so as not to spark a full-scale regional war. Reports from Tehran indicate that while new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian seeks a more retrained approach to retaliation – an Iranian military retaliation will take place.[3]

Netanyahu’s self-defined persona has been as Israel’s “Mr. Security” but his bombast does comport with reality. Last week he called Defense Minister Yoav Gallant “anti-Israel” for stating the obvious in testimony before the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee – that Netanyahu’s call for “total victory” was “gibberish:[4]

Self-aggrandizement aside, Netanyahu has failed on all strategic imperatives for Israel – notably Iran, Hamas, and the economy. The only successful Netanyahu strategy is his remaining in power.

Iran

Last week, the US Director of National Intelligence warned Congress that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” [5] Critically, the US Intelligence Community removed what had been a standard U.S. intelligence assertion for years: that Iran “isn’t currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.”[6] That is to say, that Iran is engaged in the weaponization of nuclear weapon.

In May, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in the US estimated that Iran could enrich sufficient uranium for one weapon in 7 days. 30 days for multiple weapons.[7]

For more than 15 years, the Israeli Prime Minister’s purported prime strategic objective was to ensure that Iran did not acquire nuclear weapons – stated at every opportunity – at the UN, in 2015 before a joint session of Congress – when he lobbied against the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in 2018 when he successfully lobbied President Trump to withdraw from the JCPOA – with nothing to replace it – and again last month when he addressed a joint session of Congress.

For a time, Israel (and the US) had success in delaying Iran’s nuclear capacity – assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, and damage from cyber-attacks against Iranian nuclear facilities and computer systems starting with Stuxnet (and which cyber operations increased dramatically immediately after President Obama took office – never acknowledged by Netanyahu) and the 2021 cyber-attack on the Nantaz Reactor. [8]

But for all Netanyahu’s protestations and rhetoric, where do Israel and the world stand? is one week away from enough fissile material for one Hiroshima sized bomb and is working on weaponizing that fissile material. Iran has moved from “breakout” to “weaponization”. A clear strategic success for Netanyahu!

Economy

Netanyahu claims credit for creating “Start-Up Nation”. Yet, the “Judicial Reform” – which was more like a “judicial coup” – caused foreign direct investment to plummet 85% year over year on October 6. High tech firms moved foreign currency and people out of the country. Netanyahu vilified the high-tech community as leaders in the anti-judicial coup movement – until the movement had to pivot to provide services the Netanyahu government was incapable of providing in the weeks after October 7.

Last week, Fitch downgraded Israel’s sovereign credit rating as well the credit rating of Israel’s four largest banks which will raise borrowing costs (Moody’s and S&P had previously downgraded Israel). [9]

Incalculable damage has been done to the economy with the north closed, over 100,000 internally displaced persons, agriculture in ruins, factories not operating and rapidly diminishing export markets. How many businesses will have failed from the lack of available manpower, the sheer national trauma and plummeting foreign investment. Moreover, multiple nations have reduced exports to Israel – not just of munitions but of raw materials – which will hurt domestic industry including defense.[10]

Hamas

It is axiomatic that Netanyahu failed on Hamas. Since 2008[11] – Netanyahu promised to “get rid of Hamas”. In instead, he created a symbiotic relationship with Hamas to weaken the Palestinian Authority and avoid dealing with the Palestinian issue.[12] Netanyahu facilitated the flow of cash from Qatar to Hamas and Hamas’ construction of tunnels and acquisition of weapons.[13] Netanyahu has also offered up multiple conflicting excuses for why he never actual dealt with Hamas.[14] The net result, the Hamas Massacres of October 7.

Israel’s Mr. Security and Mr. High Tech has been anything but. Netanyahu has been prepared to sacrifice Israel’s future for a sound bite and a slogan.

Hopefully, Israel’s response to the inevitable Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation will not fulfill Netanyahu’s credo of “après moi le deluge”.

[1] https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4810927-israels-assassinations-tactical-successes-strategic-blunders/

[2] https://www.timesofisrael.com/mediators-push-updated-gaza-truce-offer-hope-for-deal-next-week-as-doha-talks-break/ https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-08-16/ty-article/.premium/u-s-presents-cease-fire-proposal-that-bridges-israel-hamas-mediators-say/00000191-5bb4-d101-a7fd-7bbfda890000

[3] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c14znyrdkrmo

[4] https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-pms-absolute-victory-slogan-gibberish-netanyahu-anti-israel-narrative/

[5] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-better-positioned-to-launch-nuclear-weapons-program-new-u-s-intelligence-assessment-says-e39b6c78?mod=world_feat1_middle-east_pos2;

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/08/10/u-s-intelligence-assessment-drops-claim-that-iran-not-currently-undertaking-nuclear-weapons-development/

[6] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-better-positioned-to-launch-nuclear-weapons-program-new-u-s-intelligence-assessment-says-e39b6c78?mod=world_feat1_middle-east_pos2;

[7] https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/03/07/what-to-know-about-irans-nuclear-program-breakout-time/

[8] https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/01/world/middleeast/obama-ordered-wave-of-cyberattacks-against-iran.html

[9] https://www.timesofisrael.com/fitch-downgrades-israels-credit-rating-warning-war-could-last-well-into-2025/ ; https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/fitch-downgrades-4-israeli-banks-to-a-negative-f1-after-sovereign-action-15-08-2024

[10] https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/turkey-restricts-steel-exports-to-israel-amid-continued-gaza-conflict/