Ceasefires and ideologies
The U.S. says the ceasefire is holding despite incidents. The question is: how many of the so-called incidents do you need for the ceasire to collapse? The reason the ceasefire is unlikely to hold is, in my opinion, down to ideology. Hezbollah is driven by the same desire to destroy Israel as Iran. Their ideology trumps reason. And ceasefire is a political construct. Their focus is religious – on the afterlife. How can you hope for the ceasefire to hold when it’s grounded in the corporeal while the enemy is driven by an afterlife-centered ideology where they are duty-bound to destroy their sworn enemy?
Now, if you had, let’s call them, secular states on both sides, then sure – I could see the ceasefire holding. But now, this ceasefire appears to be a patchwork of sorts, a stop-gap measure, but, deep down, most people know it isn’t going to hold. Israel has already struck back. It would be great for the ceasefire to hold but in such a precarious geopolitical environment, external factors contribute to the chaos as well, even when both sides respect the deal. So, even if Israel and Hezbollah remain committed to the ceasefire, an external actor, be it state, or a terror group, might stage a false flag, and so on, to destabilize the situation. It’s a really tricky truce that, seems to me, has been put in place for someone to score political points.
Maybe my understanding is wrong but a ceasfire means a complete cessation of military action on both sides. That’s the deal. Even one so-called incident and the ceasefire is off. That’s the ideal scenario, of course, and I know the Middle East is far from ideal. When Hezbollah fires into Israel, you can call it an incident, but if the pattern of breaking the ceasefire continues, then the ceasefire is going to be on paper only, while exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, and possibly others, are going to continue just like before, except the terminology’s going to change, because officially it’s still going to be the ceasefire. In name only.
It seems that when one side is driven by a fanatical ideology, any kind of a lasting ceasefire is an unlikely scenario and the final confrontation might be the only way to achieve peace. Still, let’s hope for the best, even though some say hope is the mother of fools.