Chancellor Merz’s first 100 days, support Israel atone against all

The First 100 Days of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, or How to Stand by Israel, Alone Against All

They say it’s during this grace period that a newly elected leader finds his footing and leaves his mark. Never a minister before becoming Chancellor, what has he accomplished so far?

Above all, it’s on the international stage that the Chancellor has made himself noticed. In June, he met the American president in Washington, where he appears to have been well received (not everyone can say the same). He attended EU and NATO meetings, where he drew attention for his at times very undiplomatic language. He was the only one to speak in unambiguous terms after Israel’s attack on Iran: “Israel is doing the dirty work for us,” while other European heads of state took pains to clarify that they had in no way participated in or collaborated with the intervention.

His decision on 8/08, the most unexpected and most criticized one by Israel, was the temporary suspension of certain arms deliveries “that could be used in the Gaza Strip.” This marks a turning point in the Federal Republic’s foreign policy and a serious blow to the raison d’état Germany has long invoked as the foundation of its unwavering support for the Jewish state. In practice, it was in fact the first EU sanction against Jerusalem. His own party, the CDU, was caught off guard by a decision he appears to have taken on his own. For the Chancellor, “friendship between the two countries must be able to withstand a disagreement like this one.” Several members of his party pointed out that German imports of Israeli military equipment—drones, air-defense systems, cybersecurity, intelligence—also represent a relative dependency for Germany. CDU MP Roderich Kiesewetter declared on X (Twitter): “The credibility of our raison d’état is measured precisely in the depth of our security cooperation and in the promise to protect both the Jewish community and the State of Israel.”

The SPD coalition partner supports the Chancellor’s decision. The Left Party, Die Linke, also backs him and even calls for additional sanctions. In a recent poll, 66% of respondents said the Chancellor should INCREASE pressure on the Jewish state. In another poll, 69% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with his performance during this period. Public pressure at home, as well as from other European leaders, was so intense that Merz appeared to decide in haste, while at the same time adding a “temporary” caveat to the measure—suggesting it may not be final—whereas other leaders are pushing for more radical sanctions, such as suspending the EU-Israel agreement. France and Spain, and more recently Denmark, are among them. Berlin opposes this.

The pressure must be extreme, since Berlin is Israel’s second-largest arms supplier after the United States. Its defense industry, already suffering in exports, would lose new revenue at a time when Germany’s auto industry is sharply declining in Europe.

Germany’s Place in Global Arms Exports

Between 2020–2024, Germany accounted for 5.6% of global exports, making it the fifth-largest arms exporter worldwide.
Main destinations:
• Middle East: 37%
• Europe: 34%
• Asia–Oceania: 21%
Notably: Ukraine 19%, Egypt 19%, Israel 11% (SIPRI).

In 2024, exports reached €13.33 billion, including €8.15 billion to Ukraine. Other destinations include Singapore and India.

By comparison, France set a record year in 2024 with over €18 billion in orders, compared to €27 billion in 2022 (source: Zone Militaire), with nearly €10 billion concentrated in Rafale fighter jets and Black Sword submarines (BFM). France is the world’s second-largest exporter with 9.6%, behind the U.S. at 43% and ahead of Russia at 7.8%. France supplied 65 countries: Asia–Oceania 35%, Middle East 28%, Europe 15% (SIPRI).

This last figure shows France’s relatively weak presence in Europe, even though sales have tripled compared to previous years. Key clients include India (28%), Qatar (9.7%), Ukraine, Croatia, and Greece (Le Monde). It is clear that Rafale sales weighed heavily in these results (Dassault is expected to produce four per month in 2025).

Looking at these statistics, one should also examine the percentage and nature of equipment sold to countries that can’t easily be described as democracies under the “Western” definition—Egypt, Qatar, India, for instance. It would be interesting to analyze who exactly receives these weapons, and above all, how they are being used. The findings would likely be surprising. By extension, in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Libya, one inevitably finds the same major exporters—albeit to varying degrees—among the suppliers. Strangely, no one seems to question how the weapons are used on the ground.

From day one, the Chancellor has thrown himself into international affairs, often at the expense of domestic issues. He wants to secure Germany a recognized place among nations. He has repeatedly declared his goal of making Germany Europe’s leading conventional military power—an ambition that clashes with France and the UK, which consider themselves the only truly capable armed forces. He has enjoyed a certain popularity for wanting to match Germany’s status as Europe’s top economic power with military clout—a contrast with France and the UK, which, due to internal challenges, no longer have the means to match their ambitions.

But there is a growing disconnect with Germany’s domestic realities, where the AfD has risen past 20% nationally. Behind the scenes, the Chancellor is struggling with lukewarm reforms that fail to generate enthusiasm, a coalition far from consensual, a hesitant electorate, and divisions within his own party. Big challenges are looming: immigration, one of the most complex issues, in a country where the demographic pyramid is collapsing. Germany needs at least 400,000 immigrants per year, yet one in four ends up leaving.

Berlin is tightening border controls to stop illegal immigration and wants to establish a selective immigration police force, something the EU has great difficulty implementing, given its leaders’ inability to agree.

Meanwhile, the auto industry is facing a massive transformation with the rise of electric vehicles, particularly from China, which will mean heavy job losses. In Berlin, plans are underway to convert some factories to military production, intended in time to offset the decline of conventional auto manufacturing. The Chancellor has secured the lifting of a financial brake, allowing Germany to invest nearly €500 billion in civil and military industries—resources matching his ambitions.

The portrait of Germany’s leader after this first period is a mixed one.

A strong supporter of Ukraine, the Chancellor is closely watching the exchanges between the White House and the Kremlin. On Monday, he will join the EU delegation led by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, along with the French president, the British prime minister, and NATO’s Secretary General. The purpose is to present a united front and make proposals for security guarantees that Europe—where Berlin is on the front line—can and must provide if a peace process between Ukraine and Russia were to begin. This meeting will follow a gathering of 31 countries in Brussels to prepare for Monday’s summit. Perhaps there will be a glimmer of peace at the end of the tunnel after nearly three years of deadly fighting. Experts estimate 7,000 deaths per day, not counting the wounded and the maimed.

Such is the state of the world.