Popular wisdom holds that Bibi’s diplomatic skills balance the Corona Catastrophe. I am not sure.
Yesterday, I wrote a blog where I question the ‘miracle of the treaties.’ I contend that we have no part in the tripartite imbroglio consisting of Shi’a Iran, Turkey and the Islam Brotherhood, and ‘secular’ Sunna Egypt, Saudi Arabia et al.
We have no dog in the fight, whoever would cooperate does so out of interest. No one, apart from Israel, has a strategic aim for peace—merely a tactical one. The treaties worth is as ephemeral as the Arab signature states viability. To pay lip service to a Palestinian State was too high a price to pay. Our down payment is a commitment, they are trading with what they would have ‘bought’ anyway.
Because theirs is a strategic aim. As for Israelis visiting the Emirates- let’s get real. The Iranians are adapt at assassinations, killing a few Jewish tourists on their next door is murderous child’s play for them.
On the other hand, for maybe all the wrong reasons, yesterday Bibi got the Corona spot on.
Corona is spread in families and between families. Once in a family unit, the virus runs amok. There is little to do but try to protect the elderly. The virus in the family unit will burn itself out in two-three weeks. In the family unit, we see mini-herd-immunity. We know what causes massive inter-family spread, followed by the intrafamily unit spread. We saw it in the recent collapse. Open the schools, pubs, wedding halls, synagogues and scream in demos. Bibi went after all except synagogues. Even there, he managed order of sorts.
The next step is fascinating. I believe the numbers will go up as the family units crescendo. This will stop within a month and then go down.
What do we do then?
The next step depends entirely on Gantz and the Civil Defence unit. If we can do what we should have done, we will be tracing, testing, and isolating. As before, R0 will; drop below one- this time to stay there. We will hobble into the age of the vaccine. The economy will be the walking wounded- but it will be functioning and ready for full re-inflation.
By Pesach it could be over; imagine vaccination and vacation. Dream of a Bahraini led tourist boom.
In Israel, never lose tracks of politics. With Bibi never forget the survival mode.
My predictions for the New Year: Gantz will succeed—everyone needs that; Bibi will engineer an election and try everything to stop his trial.
By Pesach, we will be living in a new era. We will see post-Corona Social and economic changes; socially the ‘socialist’ Corona will engender profound changes and attitudes in Health, Education and Poverty. Economically we will be more home – computer-based. As a country, we will open domicile supply chains – we will not rely on China. 3D Printing and computerised die production, home deliveries will be in demand- could they be a niche activity for the ultra-religious?
A watershed of change is immediately ahead.
Who will lead us?
Much of our abilities to meet the challenges are due to Netanyahu- he shaped the economy and the latter-day peace process. But, like Moses, will he pass into the promised land or be buried outside?
If Bibi is our Moses; is Gantz Yeshua Bin Nun?