Nation-states exist in Europe alone. They do not exist in the Middle East.
If any state is to exist, it must have an internal cohesion which allows governance.
In the Middle East, there are two cohesive forces: religion and peoplehood. People have the same faith shared by the majority.
In real terms, in the Middle East, there are only four true people states: Turkey, Egypt, Persia, and Israel. These states alone can allow their people to choose leadership and accept it. The choices are now never democratic. They are replaced by bloodshed. There are limits to leaders’ power; there are many conflicts of power.
The three Muslim states all make their choices based on religious reasoning. They decide how much they will accept Islamic orthodoxy intruding in their lives.
Turkey and Egypt are polar models of Sunna administrative models. Iran bears the Shi’a standard.
The three ‘brands of Islam’ are at daggers drawn. They always were, and they always will be.
In-between them is the vast rump of Arabia. A fantasy fuelled by European ignorance and arrogance. No single state has the internal cohesion to rule democratically. The inhabitants do not relate to their state as a unifying entity. The only unifying force is force. In principle, powerful minorities hold sway over majorities who live in fear. In Arabia, the only unifying factor is religion- the Sunna Muslim religion. If left to choose- the Sunna Muslim will resort to the Muslim Brotherhood model or resort to the Umma – Daesh model. Only internal non-democratic force prevents this. No Sunna Muslim state can be a democracy.
No peace treaty signed with a non-democracy can survive or be relied upon. It does not represent the will of the people. We saw our Egyptian peace treaty on the brink of destruction with the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Jordanian treaty is, at best, flimsy.
The latest swath of treaties is a mirage. The countries will trade with us because it is worth their while. They already do.
They will adopt the Arab formulation,
‘My enemy’s enemy is my friend.’
They have done so. The relationships are as permanent as the permanency of the regimes and not the countries. Regime change or re-alignment will cast the treaties into a rubbish bin. We cannot build for peace—because there will be none. We can trade. Will the doors open? For as long as the first Shi’a assassin hits an Israeli tourist, with more to come. Can we tour willy-nilly in Cairo?
We are living in an area who’s only unifying aspect is the hatred of Jews. When they forget about this, they will make ad hoc agreements. They will not allow us to avoid the so-called Palestinian issue.
Like the rest of the Muslim world, the Palestinians will not forget the Quran. They will not erase what is written; more fool us if we hope so.
We cannot and do not want to live next to a Palestinian State. They have not the cohesion to make and keep treaties. The only unifying factor is their religion.
To pay lip-service to a Palestinian State is to admit suicide as an option while hoping it won’t happen.
What can we do?
We are not part of the tri-partite Islamic imbroglio. Why pretend we are? We have nothing to gain by the pageantry. We will get more by manipulating and serving common interests; at best as a mistress of their whims and needs. We do not come through the front door. Any transaction will be based on their tactical advantage. They have no strategic goal to make peace with us.
We must defuse the Palestinian issue—for our sake. There can only be a tactical solution—not strategical. The strategy of setting up a Palestinian State is mutually assured destruction for all concerned.
We must encourage and push the Palestinians to institute all the settings of democracy apart from sovereignty. We must push for an independent press, judiciary, central bank, stock exchange, land registration and police force. They must vote democratically at a municipal level. If we can ensure this, we have a good chance of avoiding the next calamitous step.
The start is a complete reversal of the intricate cobwebs of deceit—the bedrock of Netanyahu’s fantasies, functioning and legacy.