Defund, Defund Everything Even Ukraine (!)

On February 28th, Presidents Zelensky and Trump met at the Oval Office, White House was braving not only the cold weather but also a tense exchange between the two leaders. Despite the initial cordial atmosphere and Zelensky’s acceptance of a mineral agreement, the meeting quickly descended into chaos when President Trump and Zelensky engaged in a heated argument. The confrontation, which occurred in front of cameras, raised questions about its true nature. Was it a political dispute, or could this spectacle serve as a commercial for the future of U.S. foreign policy? Given Mr. Trump’s well-known media showmanship, the dramatic moment may have been more calculated than it appeared. Russia’s response was notably warm, suggesting that the Trump administration’s attitude toward Zelensky was well received. Shortly after, Zelensky met with European leaders in London, where they reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. But what does the U.S. gain from Trump’s apparent shift away from a century of Euro-Atlantic alliances?

Could viewing Russia as a more suitable ally against China, help the U.S. counter the growing influence of the “Red Dragon”? If so, what political gestures could entice Russia into a potential land conflict with China? And what are the limits of such concessions? Would ceding a third of Ukraine to Russia, withdrawing NATO bases from Europe, canceling arms agreements for Ukraine, or even exiting NATO be among them?

Meanwhile, another rising power, already filling the vacuum left by the U.S. in Syria, has made its stance clear. Türkiye declared its readiness to send troops to Ukraine if necessary. This statement came shortly after President Erdoğan’s bold remark:

“To be clear, you cannot consider securing Europe without Türkiye. Our European friends must face this reality and advance our full membership.”

Türkiye’s ruling party AKP (Justice and Development Party) announced that President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky was officially welcomed with a ceremony at the Presidential Complex.

Notably, this declaration followed a symbolic post from Ukraine’s embassy in Türkiye, featuring a striking image of Erdoğan holding an umbrella over Zelensky, a gesture rich with meaning.

The U.S.’s policy of defunding “unnecessary” alliances is not just eroding its soft power but reshaping the grand chessboard of competing interests between Europe and Eurasia. Türkiye’s cross-border ambitions have long been evident, and its ascent in the global arms trade, now ranking 11th, only underscores its growing influence. Is Trump’s retreat from military commitments outside the Pacific a strategic pivot to counter the “Red Dragon,” with Türkiye as the new watchkeeper of U.S. interests in these critical regions? If so, Europe is no longer just caught between Russia and the U.S. It now faces pressure from Türkiye as well. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Poland has begun “exploring non-standard formats” to strengthen its security, emphasizing that this will be a key topic during his visit to Türkiye.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk,

“All indications suggest that Türkiye is ready for this.”

Underscoring that the discussions will center on Ankara’s potential role in enhancing Europe’s regional security efforts.

More to that, Türkiye’s influence in the Mediterranean is growing stronger. Newly built multifunctional ships which are designed to be compatible with Turkish drones are expanding their naval capabilities. Meanwhile, Türkiye has secured maritime agreements with Libya, Somalia, and North Cyprus, extending its reach far beyond its own sea lines.

The UK left the EU at the end of 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that ended on 31 December 2020 , during which the UK and EU negotiated their future relationship.

Britain’s strategic pivot toward the U.S. may bolster its Atlantic capabilities, but it comes at the cost of losing influence in the Mediterranean, which is rapidly becoming a “non-British zone.” As Spain, France, Türkiye, and Italy carves the hydrocarbon-rich waters, London remains absent, forfeiting its once-formidable role in the region. Meanwhile, in a move echoing the old Assad regime the newly formed interim government of the Syrian Arab Republic has handed control of Latakia’s port to a French shipping firm signaling the Franco-Mediterranean influence.

Recently, Spain – a historic rival of Britain – has entered into both military and economic agreements with Türkiye, alongside another Mediterranean power, Italy.

With the UK now outside the European Union and aligning more closely with the U.S. rather than its European counterparts, Türkiye getting closer with the individual Western nations, could these developments accelerate the dissolution of the once-unified comradery spirit of “Europe Union”?

More importantly can European nations truly place their trust in Türkiye, the heir to the Ottoman Empire, once the dreaded powerhouse of Islamic conquest against Europe, as a “guardian angel” of the West against Russia? Or is this alliance a gamble with history? Can Türkiye not only grasp but faithfully uphold the sacred values and obligations that define Europe, or will the weight of its own past pull it in another direction?

As I always say, time will show.