Do the Gazans want to stay or go? What are they ‘saying’?

A recent CNN story interviewed Gazans regarding their interest in emigrating, and Gazan after Gazan insisted that they would stay in Gaza no matter how difficult the situation is, and would never dream of leaving. Not even one person that CNN spoke to expressed an interest in leaving. That is quite perplexing. It may be that CNN didn’t really look for such respondents or it may be that in the current climate nobody is willing to admit it for fear that it would endanger their life.

So it is worthwhile to look at two other sources of information. One is how Gazans have spoken with their feet over the last several decades. In other words, what were the emigration statistics like before October 7? Secondly, polls that were conducted prior to the current Hamas-initiated war. Both avenues of data show a real desire to leave, particularly amongst males and the young.

A study published in the Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies (submitted to the journal before the current war) documents the phenomenon of Gazans emigrating. Acknowledging that precise numbers are elusive, they say: “According to unconfirmed reports cited by PSR (Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research), the opening of the Rafah Crossing with Egypt in 2018 led to as many as 24,000 emigrants from Gaza in 2018, while Israeli governmental sources believe the number to be 35,000.” And that is in one year.

At the end of September 2023, mere weeks before the Hamas massacre, the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center published a fact sheet entitled “The mass exodus of young men from the Gaza Strip”. Again, admitting that figures are tenuous, they assert that “according to several reports, since Hamas took over the Gaza Strip in 2007, between about 250,000 and 350,000 young adults have left.” That is over 10 percent of the population who have actually left! And until the war shut down exits, the exodus looked like it was picking up steam. This fact sheet claims that: “in one week 18,000 applications for visas to Turkey were submitted and there was a waiting list of 83,000 to leave the Gaza Strip through the Rafah Crossing.” This is not just Israelis saying this. On September 19, 2023, again weeks before the Hamas pogrom, Palestinian TV broadcast a program called “Emigration from Gaza” in which they too claimed that in the past 15 years about a quarter of a million young Gazans had moved abroad.

Those who left often have no regrets. Other than those who migrated to other Arab countries which refuse to permit them to integrate in order to perpetuate their refugee status, they have fared well in the diaspora. For example, Chile is home to almost half a million Arabs who emigrated from pre and post-state Israel, and they have been extremely successful in integrating.

This regards those who have left. But leaving is not easy as the costs of paying to cross into Egypt are far above most people’s reach. It is thus instructive to know how many Gazans desired to leave. The PSR conducted a survey amongst Gazans that ended the day before Hamas initiated the current war. The results speak about voluntary, not forced, emigration and were reported by an Arab polling agency. They found that 31% of Gazans and 21% of Arabs in Judea and Samaria were considering emigrating, results similar to those found in 2021. According to the data, 38% of Gazan males and 44% of Gazan youth (18-29 years old) want to leave. The top four desired destinations for Gazans are Turkey, Germany, Canada, and Qatar.

The evidence seems clear. Many Gazans, particularly the young, are interested in leaving and have declared so over the years in both polls and with their feet. They were interested in leaving before the war and they are certainly interested in leaving now. As is evidenced historically and in current events, wars are great incentive for people to leave; even people who claim great attachment to the land in which they are living often pick up and leave when there is war. According to a Washington Post article, between the start of the war in October 2023 and the end of June 2024, i.e., the first 9 months of the war, 115,000 Gazan entered Egypt, and this is despite Egypt’s adamant opposition to Gazans moving there. For those that CNN interviewed to insist that they will stay at all costs, is an obvious political statement. For countries that have long supported the rights of immigration, particularly from war zones, but now object to this, is hypocritical. For countries which themselves have participated in population transfers, such as Turkey, to claim this is against human rights is simply being anti-Israel.

It really is logical. Who would not want to leave Gaza given their current circumstances? Obviously, they would want to go to places where they feel safe, places where there are already Muslims and/or Arabs, places where their children can thrive. Sure, these are generalizations and there are those who truly would want to stay. But the obvious moral and ethical way to proceed is to permit without stigmatization any Gazan who is interested in leaving, and countries who have expressed support for their “cause” should be encouraged to accept and integrate them.