Donald Trump Gets Enthusiastic Reception in the Bronx

A few days ago, Donald Trump ventured to campaign in hostile territory where Republicans traditionally fear to tread. Where did he go? Russia? No. China? No. Iran? No. He went to The Bronx. He was criticized for it by many Dems, notably AOC who in my opinion should just shut up and mind her own business. The Bronx comprises a large part of her Congressional district, but throughout her tenure in Congress she has focused her energies on national matters while doing very for her constituents.

But back to Trump. Guess what. He received a rousing welcome. Tens of thousands showed up to hear him speak, and tens of thousands more tried to get in but were relegated to overflow areas. Many Bronx residents who were interviewed by the media allowed as they felt ignored by the Administration and expressed appreciation that he demonstrated cognition of their needs, and problems.

[Quiz questions: (1) What is the etymology of The Bronx? (2) Why is it referred to by The Bronx?

The conventional wisdom in political circles has been that it is a waste of time, money, and resources for GOP presidential candidates to campaign there. Traditionally, The Bronx is among the bluest of the blue areas. For example, in 2020 Biden got almost 90% of the vote there. Why go into a hostile environment? However, Trump is fearless and confident. Moreover, he anticipates a close election and refuses to concede any area. He will not be dissuaded by the possibility of a hostile reception. He has also campaigned in “blue” New Jersey and yesterday he spoke at the Libertarian Party’s national convention. He received a rousing welcome in Wildwood, NJ and a mixed reception from the Libertarians. He wants to bring his message to a broader audience. His attitude is that New York and other traditionally “blue” areas may be “in play.” Indeed, the latest polls show that Biden’s lead in NY is down to single digits.

If you place credence in polls, in my opinion, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in American history. The latest few polls have indicated that Biden and Trump are in a virtual dead heat nationwide. However, as you know the presidency is decided by separate state results, not a national vote. Typically, each party is “guaranteed” to win certain states, and the election turns on the results in the so-called battleground states. This cycle these battleground states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. As I write this blog according to RealClear Politics and most other polls Trump is leading Biden in all of them except Wisconsin in which the two are tied. Therefore, Trump would seem to be in the driver’s seat.

However, there are a few caveats to keep in mind. (1) Trump’s margin in most of those is only a few points, well within any margin of error. (2) In any election the actual turnout is decisive. Grassroots organization and early turnout are crucial, and in recent elections the Dems have exceled in those areas. (3) The effect of independent candidates RFK and Jill Stein is unpredictable. Even if they only garner a few percentage points that could swing a few key states and hence the election. (4) As in any election a last-minute event, such as a terror attack, economic disaster or a devastating hurricane, could swing matters.

CONCLUSION

Biden has been insisting the polls are wrong. Of course, that’s what the projected loser always says. I don’t think he is totally wrong. Like I said, I don’t think they are inaccurate at this point in time, I just think there are many more external factors that could affect the election this year than is normally the case.

Biden may be right regarding the accuracy of the polls but not in the way he thinks. The enthusiasm for Trump whenever and wherever he speaks compared to that for Biden may indicate that the polls are actually underestimating Trump’s lead.

Quiz answers: (1) The name is derived from Jonas Brunck, a Swedish immigrant who established the first European settlement in the area. (2) The Bronx is named after the Bronx River. It has been customary to precede the names of bodies of water with the article “the.” Sometimes the “t” is capitalized; sometimes it is not.