Election Day at Trump Incorporated

America votes today, and somewhere in the Republican Party one imagines two press releases waiting beside the printer. The first attributes a glorious victory to Donald Trump’s unmatched political genius. The second explains that disappointing candidates failed to communicate his unmatched political genius. It is an efficient system. The conclusion is ready before the evidence arrives.

For years, Republicans have treated Trump as their most valuable political asset. He supplies the audience, the energy and, when necessary, the name of the Republican who should be removed for insufficient appreciation. Today brings the awkward part of the arrangement: finding out what the brand is worth when his name is missing from the ballot.

Trump seems to appreciate the difficulty. On the eve of the election, he urged Republicans to pretend he was on the ballot. It is a remarkable campaign pitch: please vote for the people standing behind the man you came to see.

The numbers offer some reason for Republican indigestion. The Reuters/Ipsos survey released on November 2 put Trump’s approval at 32 percent. At the equivalent point before the 2022 midterms, Biden stood at 39 percent in Ipsos polling conducted November 4–7. That puts Trump seven percentage points below Biden’s pre-midterm reading. For a man who markets himself as an upgrade, that is an awkward product review. The current survey also gave Democrats a 52–44 advantage among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. These are snapshots from different elections, and approval ratings cannot tell us how individual races will end. Still, “tremendous” seems an ambitious description. 

What matters for Trump is how much power he can exercise over the next two years. A Democratic House could block his legislative priorities, challenge spending plans and put administration officials through serious oversight hearings. When the new Congress takes office in January, people accustomed to being asked whether the president has been sufficiently wonderful could face questions requiring documents.

Congress has a useful feature called the power of the purse. It also has committees that can demand explanations. These can be irritating discoveries for an administration that would prefer its performance reviews to resemble customer testimonials.

Trump would still be president. He would retain substantial executive authority and the veto. A Democratic House would therefore bring a prolonged struggle over the limits of his power. Anyone expecting him to respond by quietly taking up watercolor painting should adjust their expectations.

The Senate presents an additional problem. It confirms federal judges and senior administration nominees. Losing it would give Democrats the ability to reject appointments and would complicate Trump’s effort to shape the government long after his presidency ends. Retaining it, even while losing the House, would preserve an important part of his power.

That is why the two chambers cannot be bundled into one television graphic marked GOOD NIGHT or BAD NIGHT. Republicans could lose the House and still keep the machinery of judicial confirmations running. Trump would have ample material for a victory speech. Material has rarely been the limiting factor in the Trump rhetoric arsenal.

Substantial losses might persuade Republicans to reconsider the cost of attaching their political futures to Trump as they look squarely into the eyes of the 2028 election cycle. They might also conclude that the country had been offered an insufficient concentration of Trump and prescribe a larger dose.

An electoral defeat does not automatically produce a party rebellion. Republican politicians would still have to face primaries in which Trump’s supporters matter enormously. A candidate can understand perfectly well that the party needs to appeal to a wider electorate and also understand that saying so publicly may lead to an unexpected opportunity to spend more time with the family.

This is the party’s predicament. Trump’s approval can help a Republican win the nomination. It cannot guarantee that the rest of the electorate will cooperate. The primary electorate and the general electorate are different customers, and the franchise agreement does not promise satisfaction from both.

Then comes 2028. The Twenty-second Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice. For Republicans hoping to succeed Trump, today’s results could help determine whether they campaign as faithful heirs or attempt a discreet renovation of the family business.

Expect a delicate exercise in political language. Prospective successors will need to establish that they are uniquely qualified to follow a man they have spent years describing as irreplaceable. That should make for an interesting job interview.

Even a weakened Trump could remain central to that contest. His influence over the party’s voters would not expire with a lost congressional seat. Republicans who hope that one bad election will relieve them of the need to make difficult choices may be disappointed. Courage, regrettably, is not included in the recount.

My hope today is that Americans give Congress the independence to do its job. The ballots still have to be counted, and every party should accept the lawful result, including the portions that arrive without advance approval from its communications department.

Republicans may have to work out how to function without a chairman who owns the company. We will leave an anlysis of Democrats for the day after the election.  Stay tuned.