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Ben Schultz

Facing Neo-Ottomanism: Israel’s Lesson from Turkey

Amid geopolitical changes in the region and the emergence of a pro-Turkish Islamist regime in Syria, questions arise in Israel about Syria’s future and its implications for the northern border. Concerns focus on Syria becoming a haven for hostile groups and the risk of a Turkish-backed regime adopting a hostile stance toward Israel. Recent strategic surprises, such as Hamas’s October 7 attack and Assad’s ousting, highlight the dangers of unpreparedness. Alongside this, Turkey’s strategic policy, marked by a neo-Ottoman approach aimed at regional hegemony, highlights the need to prepare for scenarios that could destabilize the region.

Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has long played a double game on the international stage. As a NATO member, he maintains proximity to the West while simultaneously flirting with Moscow and Beijing, even announcing his intention to join BRICS, which aims to provide an alternative to the Western-led world order. Turkey’s geostrategic location – spanning the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Mediterranean – gives Erdogan leverage to establish diplomatic connections. This ambivalence is a cornerstone of Turkish foreign policy, allowing it to maintain strategic flexibility and communicate with all sides.

Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, Turkey has taken a clear stance against the Assad regime, supporting opposition and rebel forces. Following the fall of the Alawite regime and the rise of Ahmad al-Sharaa, Syria’s new leader, Erdogan seeks to reestablish Turkey’s influence over territories once ruled by the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan’s statements about Syrian cities such as Aleppo and Damascus being part of Turkey’s homeland reflect a larger narrative to position himself as the modern “sultan” of a neo-Ottoman empire.

Syria lies at the heart of Erdogan’s ambitions. Turkey’s involvement in Syrian affairs serves to neutralize Kurdish aspirations for autonomy and mitigate the economic burden of hosting 3 million Syrian refugees. Ostensibly framed as counterterrorism efforts and the creation of safe zones for passage, these actions have allowed Turkey to consolidate control over key areas of Syrian territory. Economically, Turkey stands to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction, potentially establishing new oil and gas pipelines and creating a transit route for Turkish goods to the Persian Gulf and beyond. Such actions, together with Turkey’s growing defense industry, would reduce energy dependence and strengthen its regional influence through exports and strategic alliances.

Erdogan’s ambitions extend far beyond Syria, encompassing involvement in the Horn of Africa, military bases in the Gulf and Africa, military support for Libya and Azerbaijan, and deep ties with Qatar to promote Sunni political Islam through backing the Muslim Brotherhood. While it is difficult to predict the exact impact of these trends across the Middle East, their geostrategic implications for Israel are already apparent.

Over the years, Israel’s bilateral relations with Turkey have fluctuated, with a significant downturn over the past decade, beginning with the Mavi Marmara incident and escalating after Erdogan’s unequivocal support for Hamas following October 7. Public attitudes reflect this tension, with widespread Turkish hostility toward Israel and growing Israeli disappointment with Turkey. Despite the existing tension, both nations share common interests, primarily the need to stabilize the new Syrian regime and prevent the rise of terrorist groups.

As Turkey successfully navigates multiple fronts and leverages its multifaceted approach to serve its interests, Israel must adopt a similar strategy. A sophisticated combination of flexible diplomacy, smart partnerships, and strategic management of opportunities and threats can ensure Israel’s stability and regional standing. The following steps illustrate how this approach can be implemented in the near term, regardless of the specific policy direction that will be adopted.

  1. Israel should attempt to engage Turkey in ending the war in Gaza. This kind of involvement could extend to mediating the next discussions on the hostage deal, which would also foster closer ties with the United States, and serve as an opening for Turkey’s active role in Gaza’s reconstruction and governance in “The Day After.” Such efforts could not only promote regional stability but also serve as a foundation for renewing and strengthening economic relations between the two countries.
  2. Establishing a “minority alliance” by strengthening ties with pro-Israel minority groups in Syria, such as the Kurds and Druze, to create a pro-Israeli front within Syria. This move could counterbalance Turkish and Iranian influence.
  3. Combatting propaganda from the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran by launching an awareness campaign targeting the Syrian public with messages of peace. It is time for Israel to reclaim the public diplomacy arena and directly reach out to the Syrian people to ensure a positive public perception of Israel.
  4. Pursuing international cooperation, particularly with the United States, to pressure Turkey into expelling foreign fighters operating in Syria. With the Trump administration in office, Israel, together with the US, could consider employing a “carrot and stick” strategy, using economic pressure and sanctions on Erdogan alongside incentives for cooperation and economic agreements.
  5. Despite the uncertainty surrounding his intentions, Israel could consider opening an official communication channel with Al-Julani to convey messages of peace and attempt to influence his positions strategically.
  6. Strengthening alliances and cooperation with Jordan and Egypt to pressure Al-Julani into expelling Muslim Brotherhood operatives involved in terrorism on Syrian soil, guiding the emerging character of the new Syria in a positive direction.

In a world dominated by uncertainty, a strategy blending assertiveness with openness and adaptability will not only protect Israel’s vital interests but also create new opportunities to build partnerships and strengthen its position in a rapidly changing region.

About the Author
Ben Schultz is a final-year student in the Honors Program for Strategy and Decision-Making at Reichman University, specializing in contemporary Islam and Middle East Affairs. He also manages the Israel Young Pugwash program, focusing on track 2 diplomacy and negotiations.
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