The only place where peace can be built is the head of pro-Russian Ukrainian voters. It doesn’t work anywhere else.
Does it mean this that a ceasefire in Donbass can’t be achieved at all? It can, Of course, it can! But it doesn’t depend on the Ukrainian government, but on Vladimir Putin. The main question is – under what conditions will the Russian President want to ceasefire?
There are several options. The first is the Moldovan, that is, the coming to power in Ukraine of the pro-Russian president and parliament, who will agree to radically change the country’s political course and call into question its European and Euro-Atlantic integration.
Another scenario is Georgian. Putin is humbled by the fact that Kyiv has a leadership that is fairly loyal to him but incapable of radically changing its political course; to put it simply, it is beginning to perceive Zelensky as Bidzina Ivanishvili. Shooting on the borders of the occupied territories ceases, but passes to state building in the “people’s republics”.
But the most optimal for Putin today is another scenario – Karabakh. That is, maintaining a low but stable intensity of hostilities in the conflict zone with the possibility of their escalation into a major war if necessary.
This creates unique opportunities for pressure on Ukrainian society, gives a chance to manipulate its moods and blackmail Volodymyr Zelensky. In addition, it creates the illusion in the Kremlin of the possible appearance in Kyiv of someone like the Moldovan pro-Russian President Dodon and the transition to action according to the Moldovan scenario.
The most optimal tactic for Kyiv is to prevent the possibility of low-intensity hostilities escalating into a major war. To do this, we need to continue to strengthen the army, fight pro-Russian forces and unite with patriotic forces, in order to achieve unity within Ukraine.