For the first time, Israel just lost a war

Photo credit: Ahmed Gharabli/AFP

For 16 years, Israel has been forced to fight war after war in order to defend itself. It won the wars in 1948, 1967, and 1973. It fought Hezbollah to a draw in 2006.
That has just changed. The peace deal it just cut with Hamas was clearly a win for Hamas and a loss for Israel. No wonder people in Gaza are cheering. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SRcKSUa558

This is what Hamas won in this war:
1.  It turned world opinion against Israel.
2. It has negotiated the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, many of whom have been sentenced to life terms.
2.  While some of its leaders were killed, they will be replaced with new ones.
3.  While many of its fighters were killed, according press reports, Hamas has been rebuilding its fighting wing, which now has 12,000 soldiers in Gaza.
4. Hamas has proved that Israel is willing to give up huge amounts to get a small amount in return.
5. Hamas gets to claim proudly that the October 7, 2023 massacre brought about terrific results. In fact, Israel is weaker now than it was on October 6, 2023.
6. It really pays to take hostages.
7.  While much of Gaza has been destroyed, the world is about to provide huge sums in order to rebuild it. One can expect that a significant amount of these sums will indirectly wind up in Hamas’ coffers.
8.  Hamas will still control Gaza. UNRWA will remain as it has been.
9. The war has created a serious rift between Israel and the United States.
10. Initially, Hamas will only have to release three hostages. It will have to release 4 more hostages shortly after that. During phase one of the deal, only a total of 33  hostages will be released. Israel may trade more Palestinian prisoners being held by Hamas for more hostages after that. Thus, at the end of phase one of the deal, Hamas will be able to continue to hold roughly 30  hostages, some of whom may already be dead.
10.  Israel has failed in its objectives as stated at the beginning of the war, which included the total elimination of Hamas in Gaza.
11.  It pays to commit war crimes, including not only the war crimes that Hamas committed during the October 7th massacre, but by firing thousands of missiles into Israel, every one of them a war crime.
12.  The cost to Israel of this war has been enormous. Not only has Hamas been able to kill over 400 Israeli soldiers in Gaza since the October 7th massacre, but Israel’s national debt has increased substantially and its economy has been hurt as well. It has been estimated that Israel’s economic activity has been reduced over 20% by the war.
13.  While Israel will get some respite from Hamas forces in Gaza, it still has the remaining parts of Iran’s axis of resistance, including the Houthis and Hamas on the West Bank, and Iran, to deal with.
14.  Israel will begin to to withdraw its troops from Gaza and, for now, the killing will cease.

What Israel has obtained that it did NOT have on October 6, 2023.

1.  Almost nothing.

The deal has three phases. Apparently, the terms of phase one have been agreed to. Phases two and three require additional negotiations. Hamas could refuse to negotiate reasonable conditions during these phases, making sure that it does not  give anything more to Israel. Not all of the hostages will have been released. Hamas will still be able to rebuild its system of tunnels of which roughly 40% still remain.

This is not the first time that Hamas and Israel have fought wars and an agreement was reached. Every time Hamas has broken its word and started yet another war. This happened most recently in 2021. Since then it has allowed Qatar to bring millions of dollars in aid to it in return for peace. In fact, during the following two years, Hamas built its complicated system of tunnels and thousands of missiles while preparing for the October 7th massacre. There is no reason to believe that Hamas will NOT break its word and attack Israel from Gaza again.

There is an irony to all of this. Netanyahu sold his soul to the racist, ultra-religious, ultra-right wing political parties led by Smotrich and Ben Gvir in order to put together a coalition that would allow him to once again become Israel’s Prime Minister. In order to achieve this, he gave Smotrich and Ben Gvir important  ministries and great control over the West Bank while retaining the Foreign Ministry and Defense ministry for Likud. He did so believing that it was critical that he be the Prime Minister in any upcoming war, which was expected to come during his present term. Unfortunately, instead of his legacy being the man who could defend Israel, he will go down as the first Prime Minister of Israel ever to lose a war.