Four probable futures for Trump’s peace

By envisioning how current events will play out, we can free ourselves from the trajectory Israel has been forced into over the past three years

My family was in Jerusalem when we all received confirmation the living hostages were to be released that morning. We were in services at Hersh’s minyan, lulav and etrog in hand, when the first batch was released. It was a bright, crisp day, and our emotions were all over the place. Relief at seeing the deal go through, fear that it would be interrupted, joy at seeing the families reunited, concern at seeing Hamas reemerge onto the streets and reestablish its control of Gaza. Watching our children watching events unfold on TV, my wife and I were struck by the thought: how would this moment be remembered by them 10 years from now? As the end of the beginning? The beginning of the end? The opening of a new chapter? Or just more of the same?

It is highly probable that any of these are true. That despite Donald J. Trump’s declaration that his efforts will lead to eternal peace and a golden age for the Middle East, we are about to live through a period that, historically, will be remembered as either the end of the Jewish State as we know it, or the end of the rejection of that State by its enemies and adversaries. Understanding the range of possibilities, and identifying which of these futures we would like to inhabit – and therefore towards which direction we should pull as a People, which strategies we should take to get us there – is critical if we want to actively influence our fate and our future.

Let’s start with two observations: first, if anyone can be said to have won the Gaza War, it was Qatar. As Nahman Shai explains well, Qatar – the main sponsor of Hamas and its sister armies of Islamic Imperialism – got all of the benefit from the war while paying the least of the costs. It unseated the House of Saud as the main partner of the Trump White House, it pushed aside Egypt as the main power broker and adjudicator, and it established itself as the only party able to deter future Israeli attacks on its soil. Because of Qatar, and its main henchman and fellow Islamist Imperialist Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, Hamas feels confident to summarily execute its rivals across Gaza.

Without Qatar, Hamas literally can’t maintain its payroll, bankroll its weapons purchases and manufacturing, assault Israel physically and psychologically. Because of Qatar, and its sponsored allies across the West, Hamas feels it has broad support to revive the “resistance” and plan towards a future in which it will complete that which it had started: the destruction of Israel.

Second, Israel remains internally torn and the current government has no stated intention to work towards repair. The government will not set up a national commission of inquiry to learn from the past in order to prevent another October 7; the Minister of Justice is seeking to ram through legislation to protect Netanyahu from further testimony despite the end of the war; the committee head spearheading deliberations on service requirements for the ultra-Orthodox has put forward a controversial bill that spits in the face of the women and men who gave up nearly two years of their lives to protect their fellow citizens. And there has yet to emerge in Israel a viable alternative to this government.

We can use these two observations as the basis for identifying the four probable futures ahead of us: on one axis, the international dimension, a future in which Qatar succeeds in further isolating us (and funding Hamas), or not. On the other axis, a domestic one, a future in which Netanyahu and his coalition of authoritarian extremists succeed in continuing to divide and conquer Israel, or not. Or in other words, one axis denoting Isolation (versus Integration), the other axis denoting Authoritarianism (versus Liberalism).

The future we seem to be currently headed towards is one in which Qatar’s investments in Hamas, Western academia, global institutions, and Netanyahu’s inner circle continue to pay off, and the current government maintains its grip on power by manipulating election laws and forming the next coalition (Isolation, Authoritarianism). This future, which I call the “End of the Beginning,” is a dark one for Israel: increasingly isolated by the world, Israel has no choice but to become the super-Sparta described by Netanyahu. The strain on Israel’s economy and the psychological warfare against Israelis abroad will lead to an exodus of Israel’s creative class, an erosion of the Israeli standard of living for the rest, and an increasingly prominent role of radical orthodox Judaism that alienates the Jewish diaspora. Israel will become a Jewish Iran. It will be the end of the Jewish, liberal democratic state the Zionist movement envisioned.

An alternative future can be achieved if Netanyahu’s coalition falls or is replaced according to the current election scheduled in 2026, and another government arises with a Spartan vision for Israel that maintains a Western Liberal tradition, as did the previous version of Netanyahu (before 2016). Such a government, led by either Netanyahu himself or one of the few right-wing parties other than the Likud (and, importantly, not including the far-right or ultra-Orthodox), might stop the push towards authoritarianism but be unwilling to make the compromises necessary on the Palestinian issue to build the regional alliance required to marshal the resources to defeat the Islamic Empire. In this future, a right-wing Israel would build alliances with right-wing parties in Europe, positioning itself as the beachhead of the rebellion against the Islamic Empire, as the “beginning of the end” of Islamic imperialism. It is a future marked by war and struggle, yet higher internal cohesion.

Yet two other probable futures exist: the first is that Netanyahu will recognize that it is in his own interest to strike towards a regional alliance with Qatar’s rivals in Mecca and Cairo, breaking isolation while consolidating power here in Israel. This will require him to, at the very least, give the idea of Palestinian self-determination a nod, but he will sell it internally as he does Evangelical Zionism: just as we don’t believe the second coming is coming any time soon, so too the Palestinian State will depend on Palestinian acceptance of demilitarization, and that is unlikely, to say the least. If the past is any guide, Netanyahu will do his best to leave Hamas in place as an “asset,” limiting efforts to defeat it or starve it financially so that he can use the simmering threat against Israel as an ongoing excuse. In other words, a return to October 6. More of the same.

If we want to open a new chapter in the future of Israel, however, if we want to strike towards a future defined by safety and success, if we want to live in a future where Israel once again is celebrated among the nations as a paragon of innovation and hope, then we need to both break with the authoritarianism of the present and launch an offensive against the isolation that benefits Qatar and the imperialistic movement it funds. This will primarily require us to move quickly to achieve two things: first, to ensure Israel elects a government that aspires to more than a Spartan existence, a government with a vision of Israel as a leading global citizen dedicated to improving the future of humanity. Second, it will require us to build alliances with Qatar’s regional adversaries — the Egyptians, the Saudis, the Emirates — to break Israel’s isolation and put Islamic imperialism on the defensive.

This future is possible, and even probable, but it requires a concerted effort by lovers of Israel around the world to redouble their financial and political support of the democracy movement in Israel. It will require deradicalization education for both Israelis and Palestinians, and a concerted effort to hold the current government accountable for its failures. It will require a massive get-out-the-vote drive in populations disaffected by the current political system, a massive drive to bring back the Israelis who relocated abroad because of Netanyahu’s failures and ensure their votes are counted.

Above all else, however, it requires us to dedicate our efforts to advancing a new vision for Israel attractive to both Israelis and our regional allies: as the city on the hill, as the world’s campus, as the metropolis of the region where creatives can come together to build a better future for all. To explain to ourselves and to our neighbors what is in it for them if Israel is able to break from decades of Netanyahu’s rule and chart a new path. To get there, we will need vision and we will need leadership, and even more importantly, we need activists, campaigners, fundraisers and first followers who will demand existing public and private leaders join forces to redouble their efforts to rid Israel of Netanyahu and rid the world of Islamic Imperialism.