From Epic Fury to…Epic Worry?
As we struggle to make sense of the war’s end and what it portends – for the United States, for Iran, and certainly for Israel and the Jewish People – it can perhaps be helpful to note the uncanny way in which the events of these past few months have coincided with the narrative tugs of the Jewish calendar. The war began in dramatic fashion just ahead of Purim, indeed on Shabbat Zakhor, and offered the promise that the Hamans of today, and even the Amaleks, would at last be held to decisive account. It petered out on Rosh Hodesh Tammuz, amid fears of worse fights awaiting in the future. Thus, if during the season of reversals, it appeared that Judah would best Persia and that Mordechai would be second-in-command across the Middle East, as we now approach the 17th of Tammuz, the Three Weeks, and Tisha b’Av, we find ourselves in retreat to the all-too-familiar tropes of abandonment, loss, and destruction. In Adar of 5786 many fantasized that the ways of the world were on the cusp of fundamental change; in Tammuz of 5786 we are cruelly reminded that the world has its stubborn ways.
The pundits and politicians will long debate and spin the ramifications of the Trump-Tehran “deal,” especially when (or whether) we find out what it actually entails. But setting the elusive fine print aside, what can we learn from the unsettling arc of this at-once epic and not-so-epic conflict? Here are a few thoughts:
– War blinds and should therefore only be undertaken when there is truly no other choice.
– Overplaying a strong hand weakens that hand: the limits of American and Israeli power are now on full display. Tragically (and dangerously) the two countries appear much weaker than they in fact are.
– There’s lots of money waiting to be made in Iran and lots of countries will rush in to make it, the long-term consequences be damned.
– Pro-Israel advocacy in the US is going to be even more difficult going forward than it has been of late.
Yet, even as we worry about the repercussions of the war, there are potential silver linings as well:
– The aftermaths of wars are as unpredictable as the wars themselves. Military triumphs have a knack for nursing nasty surprises, while unsatisfying cease-fires often yield better results than initially expected. Let’s see where we end up one year, five years, ten years down the line.
– The war’s mixed outcome increases the chances that Israel will receive the fresh leadership it so desperately needs in the upcoming elections. Despise Bibi or admire him, it’s not healthy for a single individual to dominate a democracy for as long as he has Israel. That domination is now in doubt.
– Trump avoided his nightmare scenario – a foreign war distracting from Fourth of July festivities – but he nonetheless heads into the national holiday weakened. There is hope for the Spirit of ’76.
– Those voices in the Jewish world that were willing to look past Trump’s leadership flaws and abuses of power owing to their conviction that he was our true friend will now be on the defensive and will have to reassess.
– Leaders in both America and Israel will hopefully, finally internalize lessons that, frankly, seemed so obvious before, e.g., that air power alone can only achieve so much, that regime change is best accomplished domestically, and that military power absent sound strategy is folly.
– For Israel specifically, there are valuable reminders as to the necessity that wars be short and of the dangers of engaging in military campaigns alongside “allied” countries (it’s worth comparing the denouement of the American-Israeli war of 2026 with that of the British-French-Israeli war of 1956).
– Leaders in both America and Israel will hopefully retreat from dreams of total victory and personal aggrandizement and instead reengage with the art of the possible, in the messy work of debate and compromise in pursuit of the national interest that is politics.
As we enter this summer season of national introspection, let’s leave fantasies of radical transformation for the liturgical present and prophetic future and focus on what we can do to enhance the ties that bind us as Americans, Israelis, and Jews. Alas, the Islamic Republic of Iran is here to stay, at least for now; but there is still plenty of work for each and every one of us.
