From Gaza to Damascus

There he was, Ismail Haniyeh, smiling in Qatar as he was asking his fellow comrades to look at a TV screen, where Al-Jazeera proudly displayed exclusive footage of Hamas’ terror invasion. He must have been on cloud nine at that moment. How different everything is today.

Status quo

Hamas still holds 100 hostages in Gaza. But the reality on the ground is something that the terrorist organization could not have foreseen. In Gaza, its military structure seems to have been utterly destroyed by the IDF and it has now been reduced to a guerrilla faction. Moreover, its leadership in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran has been decimated. In addition, Hassan Nasrallah decided to offer support by attacking Israel as of October 8, 2023 – from then on the regional escalation had truly started – but where is Hezbollah now? Nasrallah is no more, almost the entire leadership of Hezbollah has been eliminated by Israel and the new leader, Naim Qassem, apparently lives in a bunker as well. Next to this, Hamas’ biggest patron, Iran, has been exposed as weaker than expected. When Israel responded to its missile barrage launched in October, it decided to destroy Iran’s aerial defenses. This seems to be true, as Iran has barked about revenge, yet still has not done anything. And when Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire it desperately wanted – proof of this can be found in the fact that it abandoned its demand that the war in Gaza should stop – something astonishing happened in Syria. On November 27, 2024, a surprise offensive was launched from the headquarters of several rebel organizations in Idlib, an immediate reaction to the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. With remarkable speed, rebels from the north, east, and south have managed to topple Assad’s regime. Perhaps even taking the rebels themselves by surprise, they have entered Damascus on December 8, 2024. After 54 years, the Assad regime is no more.

Cause for optimism

After thirteen years, the Syrian people might be able to breathe again after civil war wreaked havoc on the country and its population. In their case, the end of the Ba’athist dictatorship provides hope. Several clips have been posted on social media, such as people pulling down statues of members of the Assad family and rebels returning home to their mothers in Aleppo, who they had not seen in years. And a moving clip was posted of two elderly men, brothers who had not seen each in other in seven years. One hid and jumped on his brother to surprise him. Several rebel commanders have stated that Syria belongs to all Syrians, regardless of their ethnic background or religion. Perhaps, the rebels might be able to build something lasting, a political system where power is shared, the rights of all are protected. If so, they might organize free elections at some point and dare we say provide Syria with a better future.

Hope is what keeps us going and when you read that Druze in the Golan celebrated Assad’s downfall and expressed the hope that they can one day freely visit their Druze brethren in Syria and maybe have coffee in Damascus, you cannot but share their hope for the future. Several examples seem to offer support for this vision. Take for example the interview that was held with a rebel commander of the Free Syrian Army. He stated that he envisioned full peace and neighborly relations with Israel, the creation of a Syrian democracy, and even suggested that Israel might participate as an observer during future negotiations between representatives of the Syrian mosaic. Other members of the Syrian opposition have stated the same in interviews with Kan, the Israeli public broadcaster. An activist in Aleppo stated that Israel’s war against Hezbollah had provided the rebels with an opportunity. And a rebel in Idlib even went as far as stating that “they loved Israel very much.” Indeed, already after Nasrallah’s death people in Idlib took to the streets and some had even written a message in Hebrew, thanking Benjamin Netanyahu. Moreover, an interview with Fahad Almasri, the president of the now defunct Syrian National Salvation Front and current spokesperson for the Free Syrian Army was illuminating as well. After going into exile and moving to France via Lebanon, due to being branded an enemy of the Assad regime, Almasri had come into contact with Jews and Israelis and he described how this had slowly made him pro-Israel. As a journalist, he spoke of the honor to have been able to speak with the late Shimon Peres, when the latter paid a visit to France.

Cause for concern

However, there are plenty of reasons to be anxious as well. The most prominent issue would be the fact that the rebel offensive was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This Islamist faction is well-trained and well-equipped. Multiple pundits have stated that the offensive could not have been launched, without Türkiye’s tacit approval – we all know that Ankara is not particularly fond of Israel. In addition, its leader, known to all by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Joulani, remains an enigma. Here we have a man who became a jihadist, pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in Iraq, which was led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi – the man who decapitated Nicholas Berg on video – and would later set up al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch Jabhat al-Nusra. Yet, he has cut ties with al-Qaeda, after having earlier refused to pledge allegiance to the leader of Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. As of this week, he signs statements using his own name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and he has not committed HTS to launching terror attacks against Western targets. Moreover, he has adopted a rather conciliatory tone to all Syrians, and requested that his fighters respect minorities. Also, he has been conspicuously silent about Israel, since the rebel offensive began. Yet, he and his organization are considered terrorists by Western governments, the Armenian community in Aleppo is cautious, due to the fact that Islamist militants had made similar promises about the rights of minorities in the past, only to eventually turn against the city’s non-Muslim residents, they have good relations with Erdogan and after October 7, 2023, al-Joulani offered a statement of support for Hamas and HTS’ most important cleric has a history of making anti-Semitic statements, such as after Yahya Sinwar was eliminated. Finally, al-Jazeera, Hamas’ mouthpiece, seems very content with HTS as well.

Another faction is the Syrian National Army. This group is trained and equipped by Türkiye and after taking Aleppo, they moved east to confront the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, who, in turn, receive support from the United States and its military base in eastern Syria. It remains to be seen what the fate of the Kurds will be, as Erdogan has made it abundantly clear that he will not tolerate the Kurdish YPG on his borders. So, what part will this organization play in Syria’s future? Will they participate in the establishment of a Syrian democratic system or will they do Ankara’s bidding? The treatment of Kurdish women in a video by Syrian rebels was terrifying and reminiscent of the videos we saw of captured Israeli women being shouted at by Hamas terrorists on October 7^th.

Finally, it would seem that Iran is already maneuvering and trying to establish ties with the victors of the Syrian Civil War. Tehran has announced that it has made contact with rebels whose stance is closer to Iran’s. Therefore, it remains unclear what the positions of several rebel factions are. As al-Jazeera lavishes praise upon HTS, it does seem likely that Qatar sees it as another aggressive anti-Israel actor, considering that it supports Hamas as well and its media are rife with the most virulent anti-Semitism imaginable. Despite Hamas’ pragmatic support for the Assad regime, something that was not well-received among Syrian rebels, the Middle East can change on a whim. And, ideologically, HTS is much more similar to Hamas than Israel. Moreover, al-Sham is a term used for a territory that includes Israel. And a group of HTS rebels have already clarified that they are ready to march on Jerusalem. In addition, they vow that they will enter Islam’s holy sites in Saudi Arabia as well.

A time of uncertainty

The Syrian rebels have toppled the much-hated Assad on their own, it was an impressive feat similar to Libyan rebels dethroning Muammar Ghaddafi. Rebels have not clashed with Israel, as it continued to strike Hezbollah targets, something that was beneficial to their offensive, and Israel’s attacks on Assad’s various weapon stores have not led to confrontations either, including the IDF’s move to take over key positions in the buffer zone with Syria on the Golan. Perhaps, this victory will lay the foundation for a genuine Syrian democracy, where all of its citizens can live in peace together. It is the hope of many Syrians and I truly wish that this will be their future. If so, then perhaps peace with Israel might be in the cards as well. This will probably take time but, as Almasri explained, most Syrians have been raised to hate Israel and see it as a country of devils. It will take time to prove to the people that this is not the case and will take longer as most have and will never meet an Israeli in their lives. Therefore, calm would be welcome at this point.

But, what if this revolution ends up turning on itself? Alas, we have plenty of examples of revolutions gone awry, for various reasons, such as the French and Russian Revolutions. Moreover, we have seen what has happened to Libya, as the country today is split between two rival governments, who both claim to be the legitimate representatives of the Libyan people. Finally, al-Joulani gave a speech to his followers in Damascus on Sunday, that showed his enigmatic character, once again. As he celebrated, he stated that Assad had turned Syria into a “farm for Iran’s greed.” However, he also stated that the victory should be considered a success for “the entire Islamic nation.” Is the last statement simply meant to instill pride in the hearts of Muslims worldwide or is it a veiled show of support for Hamas and a threat directed at the moderate leaders of the Gulf states? It is hard to say.

The brutal Assad regime has finally come to an end, a great achievement by the Syrian rebels. But, perhaps the biggest test now awaits Syria. Will the various factions settle their differences, forgo their suspicions and work together to lay the foundation for a Syrian democracy or will they turn on each other? Will Israel’s Golan Druze one day be able to drink coffee in Damascus or will Israel be confronted with a Syrian replica of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan that continues to be hostile towards it? Will the Syrians be allowed to decide what their future will be or will countries like Türkiye, Qatar, and Iran continue to exert their influence?

You have to be hopeful, but recent developments have caused me to be a bit apprehensive. Time will tell.