Gaza’s anti-Hamas protests mean different things to different players

The United Arab Emirates is betting that recent anti-Hamas protests in Gazan towns, supported by influential tribes and clans, will strengthen Abu Dhabi-based Mohammed Dahlan’s chances of playing a prominent role in the territory’s post-war administration.

Protesters suggested they focussed their demands on Hamas because the group was the one party they were most likely to influence.

“We want to stop the killing and displacement, no matter the price. We can’t stop Israel from killing us, but we can press Hamas to give concessions,” said Mohammed Abu Saker, a father of three.

“We are not against the resistance. We are against war. Enough wars, we are tired,” another protester said.

Some protesters took issue with Israeli portrayals of the protests as an uprising against Hamas rather than against everyone, including Hamas, Israel, the West Bank-based, internationally recognized Palestine Authority, the Arabs, and the international community.

“Everyone failed us,” a third protester said.

“People are angry at the whole world… We want Hamas to resolve this situation, return the hostages, and end this whole thing,” said yet another.

Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, encouraged Gazans to sustain the protests because expelling Hamas from Gaza was the only way Israel would end the war.

“You should…demand the removal of Hamas from Gaza and the immediate release of all Israeli hostages. This is the only way to stop the war,” Mr. Katz said.

The protests erupted as efforts to revive the Gaza ceasefire talks stalled.

US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff suggested Israel would be free to attack Gaza as long as the group refuses to accept his latest ceasefire proposal unconditionally.

The recent protests have reinforced Messrs. Witkoff and Netanyahu’s belief that increased pressure will force Hamas to concede.

Well-connected veteran Israeli journalist Ehud Yaari asserted this week that “in Gaza, Hamas is broken. The two top echelons of their military command were decapitated. They have only two of their senior commanders still alive. They are no longer a cohesive military organization. They have lost their huge arsenal of rockets, anti-tank missiles, and they lost 70, 80 per cent of their tunnels,” Mr Yaari said.

Amid deep-seated differences among Hamas leaders in Gaza, Qatar, and Turkey over issues of succession, policy, and the fate of the remaining Hamas-held hostages, Mr Yaari said the “shots were being called for now” by Nizar Awadallah, a long-standing member of the group’s Political Bureau. “He objected to the October 7 attack, he objected to the close alliance of Hamas with Iran, and many other issues,” Mr. Yaari said.

Mr. Yaari said the protests and recent anti-Hamas social media postings were in part sparked by an increasing number of Hamas figures, including the commander of the Gaza Brigade, the group’s largest military unit, suggesting that the October 7 attack was a blunder.

“People speak their mind saying Hamas is responsible for our tragedy,” Mr. Yaari said.

If Mr. Yaari’s assessment is correct, Israel likely designed its renewed attack on Gaza as much to destroy Hamas in retaliation for the October 7, 2023, attack that killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, as to prevent Hamas or elements of the group projecting themselves, much like Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) did in the 1980s, as potential negotiating partners.

Since resuming hostilities earlier this month, Israel has reported killing more Hamas military commanders and civilian officials.

Even so, Israeli intelligence reports that Hamas has some 20,000 young, inexperienced recruits in addition to Islamic Jihad’s 10,000 Jihad combatants who have access to weapons and explosives.

Hamas has been able to fire missiles at Israeli cities on several occasions since Israel resumed its assault.

Similarly, Hamas fielded scores of fighters dressed in crisp fatigues and armed with automatic weapons moving across Gaza in seemingly well-maintained pick-up trucks mounted with machine guns during the ceasefire’s first-phase prisoner exchanges.

The group displayed a degree of command and control and an ability to stage major events and maintain public security despite Israel’s body blows.

Mr. Witkoff’s initial proposal to break the impasse in the ceasefire talks would have seen Hamas release several of the 59 hostages it still holds in exchange for Palestinians incarcerated in Israel, the lifting of the Israeli clampdown on humanitarian aid entering Gaza, and renewed second-phase ceasefire negotiations to end the war and ensure Israel’s withdrawal from the Strip.

Mr. Witkoff subsequently suggested that Mr. Trump would call for calm in Gaza and Israel’s return to negotiations if Hamas released Edan Alexander, the sole remaining living US citizen held captive by the group.

Qatar urged Hamas to accept the US envoy’s latest proposal, arguing it meant Mr. Trump would pressure Israel to halt hostilities and negotiate a renewed ceasefire.

Hamas has insisted that any deal that would lead to the release of all remaining hostages would need to involve guarantees that Israel does not restart the war once the group has freed all its captives.

Hamas suggested a United Nations Security Council resolution could anchor the guarantees. The resolution would impose sanctions on any violator and be irreversible, given that Russia and China would likely veto any attempt to annul it.

Israel and the United States rejected Hamas’s suggestion.

Waiting in the wings to return to Gaza when the war ends is Mr. Dahlan, the 64-year-old scion of a smaller Gaza clan and former Al-Fatah security official in Gaza, who is well regarded in Washington and Jerusalem and has close ties to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed.

Mr. Dahlan was forced into exile after Hamas ousted Al-Fatah, the backbone of 89-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestine Authority, from Gaza in 2007.

Al-Fatah subsequently expelled Mr. Dahlan. A Ramallah court convicted him on corruption charges in 2014 in absentia.

Earlier this month, Mr. Abbas paved the way for Mr. Dahlan’s return by announcing an amnesty for expelled members of his Al-Fatah party.

Mr. Abbas announced the amnesty at an Arab summit in Cairo that adopted an Egyptian proposal countering Mr Trump’s plan to move Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians out of Gaza and turn the territory into a high-end beachfront real estate development.

The gesture was partly directed at Mr. Bin Zayed who was conspicuously absent. A deputy prime minister represented the UAE at the summit.

Like the United States, the UAE has long advocated sweeping reforms of Mr. Abbas’s widely discredited, corrupt, and dysfunctional Authority.

Mr. Dahlan’s more humble origins, international network, and UAE support position him as an alternative to Hamas and the Palestine Authority, who perform poorly in Gazan opinion polls, even if the Emirates is the Arab state most empathetic to Israel’s hard line.

“The tribes openly announced their participation in the protests, meaning that anger is mounting and could explode in Hamas’ face. Hamas knows its powerful opponents on the ground are the tribes’ dignitaries and members,” said Al-Arab, a London-based newspaper believed to enjoy Emirati funding.

Critics argue that Mr. Bin Zayed’s backing of Mr. Dahlan and quest for influence in Gaza is rooted in his virulent opposition to Islamist forces, such as Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

The critics said it was one reason why the UAE is willing to engage with Israel in ways in which other Arab states, including those with diplomatic relations with the Jewish state, are not.

The UAE raised eyebrows when it invited proponents of Mr. Trump’s Gaza resettlement plan, including Israeli parliament speaker Amir Ohana, to a Ramadan breaking-of-the-fast iftar in Tel Aviv.

UAE ambassador Mohamed al-Khaja hosted the iftar a month after his Washington counterpart, Yousef al-Otaiba, said he saw “no alternative” to the Trump proposition.

Pro-Israeli media reported this week that the first group of Palestinians would soon move to Indonesia.

The reports, denied by Indonesia, which does not have diplomatic relations with Israel, appeared to be an Israeli attempt to create the impression that other Muslim-majority states may endorse Gazan resettlement plans.

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Dr. James M. Dorsey is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and podcast, The Turbulent World with James M. Dorsey.