search
Jonathan Matkowsky
matkowsky.com

Hamas Videos Drive Israeli Protest Surge

Puppet Master of Protests. Image generated with OpenAI's DALL-E tool. All right, title, and interest, if any, in and to this output has been assigned to the author by OpenAI. To the extent permitted by applicable law, the author owns this output.

Psychological Terror Fueled by Disinformation: Hamas Hybrid Warfare

From the onset of the war, Hamas has waged a relentless hybrid war against Israel, combining psychological warfare with international disinformation campaigns. The battlefield with our enemies clearly extends far beyond the physical domain. Hamas carefully coordinates cognitive warfare to maximize its impact on Israeli society and global perceptions. Understanding this hybrid strategy, especially the psychological toll it has taken on the Israeli public, is crucial to developing effective countermeasures that can protect both our nation’s security and its international standing. As discussed in Jewish Diaspora’s Role in Israel’s Hostage Crisis, the psychological toll complicates how best to support Israel’s security and bring the hostages home.

Initial results of my recent study (the Findings) show that despite our resilience, Hamas has exploited deep vulnerabilities. The Israeli public has, at times, been swayed by these psychological tactics, leading to spikes in unrest and divisions within Israel. Hamas’s disinformation campaigns abroad undermine Israel’s international standing, timed to coincide with psychological warfare at home. Our media has sometimes amplified Hamas’s message, worsening the issue.

Our ability to understand and counter these tactics is crucial to maintaining our national resilience in the face of ongoing threats.

Strategic Release of Hostage Videos: It’s all About Timing

Hamas has strategically timed the release of psychologically impactful content, such as hostage videos, aligning these with moments when its disinformation campaigns gain traction internationally.  The Findings highlights that within 48 hours of a particularly graphic hostage video released last year, protest activity in major Israeli cities surged significantly. This deliberate tactic mirrors strategies in Ukraine and Syria.

There is also a growing concern globally about the potential use of artificial intelligence (AI) to further enhance these operations, making it increasingly difficult to counter these threats effectively, especially as the messaging can evolve in real-time, adapting to new information and countermeasures almost instantly. This complicates fact-checking and content removal, creating a feedback loop where operations amplify each other, deepening their impact on the target population and internationally. By using AI to create synthetic media and deepfakes, actors like Hamas could blur the lines between reality and manipulation, amplifying the psychological impact on targeted populations. A dynamic feedback loop where one operation amplifies the other could lead to an escalation in the intensity and frequency of operations, further straining Israel’s capacity to respond effectively.

When international narratives echo Hamas’s disinformation, like claims of disproportionate Israeli responses, the psychological toll on Israelis intensifies, compounding fear and condemnation. Psychological operations might also influence the morale and decision-making processes of Israeli military personnel, affecting their operational effectiveness and overall mental health, which could further complicate Israel’s response to these tactics.

Coordinated disinformation and psychological operations amplify their impact on Israeli civilians. The Findings show that platforms like Telegram facilitate the rapid spread of these videos, often leading to peaks in protest activity within hours.

When disinformation campaigns abroad gain momentum, and international narratives begin to echo Hamas’s messaging, the psychological pressure on Israelis deepens. This too is reminiscent of the psychological tactics used in Ukraine, where Russian disinformation efforts are designed to weaken public resolve by manipulating international narratives and creating a sense of global isolation for the targeted population. In a similar vein, the Assad regime’s tactics in Syria also involved the strategic use of fear and confusion to break the will of the opposition, a strategy Hamas has adapted to its context by using disinformation to reinforce its psychological operations.

Hostage Videos Significantly Influence Protest Dynamics

While establishing definitive causality in social phenomena is inherently challenging, the Findings support that the hostage videos have been a significant influencing factor on the Israeli protest dynamics. As mentioned, within 48 hours of a particularly graphic hostage video released late last year, protest activity in major cities across Israel surged significantly.  While other unobserved factors of course play a role, it is important to acknowledge that psychological operations influence domestic unrest, particularly in the context of modern warfare where media and digital platforms are playing more of a central role. We must recognize Hamas’s effective use of hostage videos to manipulate public sentiment and fuel protests.

The Findings also underscore the severe psychological impact of hostage videos released by Hamas, particularly those timed to coincide with significant military actions. These videos, designed to maximize emotional trauma, have been linked to increased levels of anxiety and PTSD among viewers, particularly within the Israeli population. The strategic timing of these videos amplifies their psychological effects on civilians.

Government Communication Under Fire

Government communications have struggled to counter these psychological operations, especially when the psychological warfare is targeting those whose public trust in the government is already strained. This has exacerbated public dissent and intensified protest activities, particularly during periods of economic hardship and ongoing military operations targeted by disinformation campaigns.

The government also has a tougher challenge because social media algorithms can inadvertently prioritize engagement over accuracy, thereby promoting disinformation more broadly. This makes platforms even more vulnerable to exploitation by adversaries, who could then also use AI to optimize the timing and targeting of their messages. These algorithms could also be weaponized to automatically generate and distribute content that amplifies the intended psychological and disinformation effects. We must recognize that Hamas might tailor its psychological operations to Israeli cultural or religious aspects, amplifying their impact.

One of the key challenges in countering this coordinated approach is the difficulty in disrupting the timing and synchronization of these operations, especially when AI is involved. This complicates fact-checking and content removal. AI-generated disinformation, combined with real-time psychological operations, makes neutralizing these threats before critical mass challenging.

The experience of post-9/11 America highlights similar challenges, where the rapid dissemination of disinformation and the psychological impact of terrorist threats created a complex environment for counter-terrorism efforts. Just as the U.S. had to balance civil liberties with the need for security, Israel faces the challenge of developing effective countermeasures that do not infringe on democratic freedoms while being robust enough to counter hybrid warfare.

Hybrid Warfare is Influencing Protest Dynamics

The Findings show Hamas effectively exploits social media like Telegram, Twitter, and TikTok to synchronize disinformation and psychological warfare, escalating protests in scale and intensity.  These platforms broadcast violent acts and spread disinformation.  Social media is often a crucial battleground for spreading disinformation that aligns with military operations on the ground. Social media’s decentralized nature allows propaganda to go viral rapidly, making narrative control difficult.

The rapid spread of hostage videos on platforms like Telegram likely drives their swift, widespread impact. While the Findings did not directly analyze social media metrics, it is reasonable to infer that the viral nature of these platforms enhances the psychological effect of the videos. The data does support that protests typically peak within a set number of hours and not necessarily even days after the release of a hostage video, highlighting the immediate and powerful impact of these psychological operations.

Applying AI Proactively

We must stay ahead of this threat to disrupt the coordination between psychological operations and AI-enhanced disinformation. This could involve the development of real-time monitoring systems that detect when AI-generated disinformation is being used in conjunction with psychological operations, enabling a more immediate and effective response. Integrating AI technologies for real-time detection and response will be necessary to neutralize these synchronized threats before they can cause significant harm. Israel should continue to use and learn to apply AI and machine learning proactively to counteract or anticipate the adversary’s psychological operations, potentially preventing or mitigating their impact.

Israel can learn from Taiwan’s COVID-19 strategy, where real-time fact-checking and clear communication combated disinformation.  These strategies will inevitably continue to include more sophisticated use of AI to anticipate and neutralize these threats before they can escalate. Additionally, establishing a comprehensive evaluation framework to assess the effectiveness of different countermeasures in real-time will be needed to ensure ongoing adaptation and improvement.

The Media’s Heightened Responsibility

The media has to be more responsible with their reporting as they play a crucial role in shaping public perception.  In hybrid warfare, where disinformation and psychological operations are rampant, journalists have a critical role in shaping public perception. The media must adopt strict ethical guidelines to prevent the amplification of enemy propaganda. Media literacy programs, supported by grassroots initiatives, are equally important in bolstering public resilience against psychological manipulation, ensuring that our society remains informed and resilient.  They must balance the urgency of reporting with the need to verify facts and avoid amplifying cognitive warfare tactics. Ethical guidelines for journalists reporting on psychological warfare could balance truthful reporting with the risk of amplifying harmful propaganda.

In today’s era where everyone has the ability to function as a newsroom just by being the administrator of their own WhatsApp group or Telegram channel, we must acknowledge that ordinary civilians can dangerously promote a Hamas campaign just by shutting off the ability to comment, thereby spreading Hamas psychological warfare throughout the population. There must be some control over the flow of information during war when the enemy is trying to use the media as a weapon in this way.  We will clearly need to develop guidelines that help maintain integrity of our democratic values while reporting on a war where hybrid warfare tactics are being used through the media to target the population. The media has a clear role in mitigating the effects of psychological operations and disinformation, ultimately contributing to a more informed and resilient public discourse.

Media Literary Training and Awareness Programs

In an era where psychological warfare and disinformation are increasingly weaponized, media literacy training also becomes a critical tool in strengthening societal resilience. Effective media literacy programs empower individuals to critically evaluate the information they encounter, helping to prevent the spread of disinformation and reducing the psychological impact of manipulative content.  Grassroots initiatives in Israel, supported by both government and civil society, have begun to implement media literacy training as part of a broader strategy to counter Hamas’s psychological operations. These programs aim to educate the public on how to recognize disinformation, understand the psychological tactics used by adversaries, and respond appropriately without contributing to the spread of harmful content.  Media literacy is crucial in mitigating cognitive warfare, which aims to disrupt decision-making at individual and societal levels. A well-informed, critical populace reduces the effectiveness of Hamas’s disinformation and psychological operations.

These efforts must not only be reactive but proactive, aiming to build long-term resilience within society. By embedding media literacy into education systems and community programs, Israel must create a population better equipped to withstand and counteract the psychological tactics employed in hybrid warfare by our adversaries.

Updating International Frameworks

As hybrid warfare tactics evolve, so too must the international legal frameworks that govern armed conflict. The laws may not adequately address the complexities of non-kinetic warfare, such as cognitive warfare that are becoming more central to modern warfare, particularly as AI and other emerging technologies become increasingly integrated into warfare strategies.  Concrete proposals for how to update international legal frameworks appear to be lacking. More research is needed to help establish new norms and regulations that better reflect the current and future landscape of warfare.

Effective civilian-military integration is increasingly critical in countering hybrid threats across psychological, cyber, and disinformation domains. There are no best practices yet established for achieving this integration, particularly in non-kinetic domains. The challenges of coordinating responses across civilian and military agencies are compounded by the fast-evolving nature of hybrid threats, which require agile and adaptive strategies.

Improving Civil-Military Cooperation

We need stronger civil-military cooperation, with detailed guidelines on how to operationalize this integration, especially in the context of hybrid warfare. Discussion of adaptable frameworks that outline the roles and responsibilities of civilian and military entities would help ensure a unified and effective response to hybrid threats. Frameworks must address non-kinetic warfare challenges, like disinformation and psychological operations, with clear joint operation protocols.  For instance, a framework could include real-time information-sharing mechanisms between military and civilian agencies, standard operating procedures for responding to psychological operations, and the development of rapid-response teams that can address disinformation and psychological threats as they arise. There should be a focus on training both military personnel and civilian leaders in understanding and countering hybrid threats, ensuring that all parties are equipped to respond effectively.

Analyzing the successes and challenges faced in these types of initiatives should provide valuable insights for developing best practices tailored to Israel’s unique context.

Abstract case studies is one thing, but we will need to ensure frameworks are both practical and effective in real-world scenarios. By implementing these frameworks, Israel could significantly enhance its resilience against hybrid threats, ensuring a coordinated and robust national defense.

Cognitive Warfare and AI-Driven Manipulation

With AI being used in cognitive warfare, where the goal is to influence or disrupt decision-making processes at both the individual and societal levels, we need to take cognizance of the potential for AI-driven operations to manipulate perceptions, shape narratives, and influence behaviors—often without the target population’s awareness. The global trend towards the integration of AI in cognitive warfare raises significant concerns of the potential for the adversary to undermine our democratic processes and erode public trust in our institutions.

After the war is over, there will be a pressing need for research that examines the long-term impacts of these psychological operations on societal trust and cohesion. Research will be needed on how sustained cognitive warfare specifically affects our democratic values, the psychological well-being of our population, and the overall stability of our society. Understanding long-term impacts of AI-driven cognitive warfare is essential for developing strategies that protect us from these subtle but potentially destabilizing tactics.

Towards a Better Future Countering Hybrid Threats

Hamas’s hybrid warfare reflects a sophisticated strategy to undermine Israel both internally and internationally. Starting to address the gaps, including in countering AI-driven cognitive warfare to ethical and legal guidelines and frameworks, will better equip policymakers to withstand the complex and evolving challenges of modern hybrid warfare.  This will not only enhance the effectiveness of Israel’s responses to hybrid threats, but also contribute to the broader global effort to understand and mitigate the risks of modern warfare. By developing new strategies, ethical guidelines, and legal frameworks, researchers and policymakers will start to better equip societies to withstand the complex and evolving challenges of hybrid warfare.

As discussed in No Refuge for Hamas Supporters, the international legal and political landscape plays a crucial role in how nations like Israel navigate these challenges. Until then, the Israeli population should really double down on media literacy training and awareness programs to mitigate the increased harmful manipulation of protest dynamics by our adversaries.

About the Author
To learn more about me, visit matkowsky.com. All views expressed are solely those of Matkowsky individually. You can subscribe to my newsletter on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/build-relation/newsletter-follow?entityUrn=7259928109347471360
Related Topics
Related Posts