Former Vice President Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2020, despite recent endorsements from Hillary Clinton, President Obama, Bernie Sanders, and other Democrats. The closer we get to the convention, the less unified Democrats will be regarding the prospect of Biden running against, or even debating, President Trump. Biden already loses to President Trump in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and other swing states according to the latest CNBC poll. Furthermore, Biden’s gaffes and continual lapses in memory, in addition to possible cognitive issues already have Democrats clamoring for an alternative. Biden’s success in the Democratic primary has more to do with a repudiation of Bernie Sanders and a revulsion for President Trump than anything positive about the former Vice President.
Wisconsin Democrats voted for someone who would veto Medicare for All, in a rainstorm during a pandemic, so that should tell you how the average Democrat views Bernie’s revolution in 2020. In addition, Bernie Sanders has more in common with President Trump (both opposed the TPP and NAFTA and both supported criminal justice reform, addressing the trade deficit with China and an end to foreign interventions) than Biden, whom AOC recently stated was less progressive than Hillary Clinton. In reality, whether it’s all a charade or simply the escapades of a modern-day Tammany Hall, Democrats will nominate a woman during their August convention. The Democratic Party’s convention, by the way, was rescheduled exactly on the centennial of the 19th Amendment’s ratification. Democrats will once again nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton and she’ll eventually battle President Trump for the presidency in 2020.
How Clinton ends up on the November ballot is a mystery, but millionaire donors aren’t going to invest in Biden; his campaign can only hit so many icebergs and his troubles are insurmountable. The notion that Michael Bloomberg would spend $1.2 billion in about four months to help elect Joe Biden is not only absurd, but goes against the recent history of the Democratic Party. Ultimately, Democrats would rather lose another close election with Clinton, than ruin the party for a generation by losing miserably with Biden.
Does this sound strange? It shouldn’t since Biden only has a little over $26 million in cash thus far in his campaign for the White House. Clinton at this point in 2016 had raised over $180 million and was on her way to outspending Trump by a margin of 2:1. Clinton won the popular vote by massively outspending Trump $1.2 billion to $600 million and still lost the electoral college, so Democrats aren’t going to roll the dice with a man who stated he’s running for Senate in 2020. Also, President Trump is breaking fundraising records with over $240 million recently and the average Trump supporter is very enthusiastic to vote again for the president. Biden’s voters aren’t at all enthusiastic about him and aren’t truly voting for the former Vice President; they’re voting against Trump.
With Clinton, Democrats have around 65 million people who either want the first female president, an end to the Trump presidency, another Clinton in the White House, or a candidate with Madam Secretary’s star power among Hollywood celebrities and the D.C. establishment. Ultimately, Clinton’s more passionate base of support among the “I’m With Her” crowd would lead to an overwhelming advantage over Biden in fundraising and voter turnout. Democrats simply can’t win swing states with Biden’s fundraising numbers, his constant gaffes, a sexual assault allegation combined with a criminal complaint, and questions about Burisma.
Some might ask why Democrats would return to a person who already lost to Trump, even if she could outspend Biden. There about 77,000 thousand reasons; all of which pertain to the number of voters in key swing states that swung the election. Pledged delegates are not legally bound to vote for Biden, even if he wins the nomination outright before the convention, and can even vote for Clinton during the first round, before super delegates vote in the second round of the Milwaukee convention. As stated by FiveThirtyEight, “Democratic delegates are pledged to certain candidates based on the results… But they are not actually legally bound to vote for them, even on the first ballot.” Therefore, anything is possible in a political party where the fine print of any agreement or document allows for all types of bizarre outcomes, even Debbie Wasserman Schultz being forced to resign in 2016 for cheating Bernie Sanders.
Most importantly, Democrats must win Florida this time around, and Clinton outspent Trump by a wide margin in Florida and other swing states and still lost. Does anyone believe Democrats would try their luck with a candidate who could make an outlandish gaffe immediately before November while at the same time having the lowest voter enthusiasm rating of any major candidate in 2020? Combined with the electoral college disaster a Biden candidacy brings, Hillary Clinton still has immense influence over the Democratic National Committee and prior agreements might still be pertinent to this election. The Associated Press published an article titled Clinton camp controlled party finances before 2016 primary by Dave Boyer of The Washington Times highlighting the level of control exhibited by Clinton’s campaign over the DNC in 2016:
Former Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Donna Brazile says President Barack Obama decimated the party’s finances to win re-election in 2012 and that Hillary Clinton’s campaign took control of the DNC long before she defeated Sen. Bernard Sanders for the party’s presidential nomination last year.
…Ms. Brazile described a phone call she had with Gary Gentler, the chief financial officer of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, on the morning after the Democratic National Convention ended in late July 2016.
“He told me the Democratic Party was broke and $2 million in debt,” Ms. Brazile wrote. ” ‘What?’ I screamed. ‘I am an officer of the party and they’ve been telling us everything is fine and they were raising money with no problems.’ That wasn’t true, he said. Officials from Hillary’s campaign had taken a look at the DNC’s books. Obama left the party $24 million in debt $15 million in bank debt and more than $8 million owed to vendors after the 2012 campaign and had been paying that off very slowly.”
Fast forward to 2020 and the GOP almost doubled the Democratic National Committee in fundraising with Trump and the RNC; raising almost half a billion dollars in 2019. With massive fundraising being essential within the final months leading to November for Democrats, pledged delegates (again, they’re not legally bound to vote for Biden) and super delegates won’t be nominating a man with a D.C. police criminal complaint for sexual assault on the Centennial of the 19th Amendment.
Hillary Clinton, whether she masterfully played the game of politics once again, or possibly because she influences DNC fundraising, will become the Democratic nominee in 2020. DNC lawyers already admitted in a court of law that nominees could be chosen in smoke filled back rooms like the Gilded Age, so this turn of events shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Madam Secretary will be giving her second acceptance speech this August and could win the presidency in 2020. My prediction, however, is that this election might be closer than anyone ever imagined, with President Trump winning a second term and defeating Clinton and Democrats, for a second consecutive election.
Whether Biden is replaced by Clinton immediately before Election Day in November or at the Convention in August, Hillary Clinton will once again lose another presidential election to Donald J. Trump. This will be the second presidential election I accurately predict, with NPR quoting me in 2015 as saying Clinton “is unelectable due to negative favorability polls nationwide and within swing states.” Clinton is still unelectable because of these issues, however Democrats will have no choice but to take their chances with Madam Secretary once again in 2020.