How does Netanyahu think this ends?

As Israel’s current prime minister pursues dual offensives in Gaza and against the civil service, his path to victory may create unwinnable outcomes

There is a certain logic to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s dual offensive against Gaza and Israel’s civil service. A rhyme to the restarting of bombing Gaza, despite his signed agreement to US President Donald Trump’s two-stage proposal and his announcement of his intention to ignore the attorney general’s legal opinion and fire the director of Israel’s secret security service, colloquially known as the Shabak (and the attorney general herself). In his mind, Israel’s current prime minister most likely sees himself as the hero of the story, the savior of Israel. So how does he think this ends?

This is a serious question that should be answered seriously: Netanyahu is currently the prime minister of Israel, leading a coalition that won 49 percent in the last election, who believes he has the mandate to lead Israel until the end of his term or the next election, whichever comes first. He is surrounded by people who believe in him and follow his directives, each for their own reasons but all knowingly and, in their minds, logically aligned with the interests he is fighting to protect.

While it may be true that some of those interests have been influenced by foreign entities, like Qatar, it is more likely Netanyahu and his allies believe they are doing what is best for their constituents as democratically elected representatives. If we accept their view of the world and believe these people are truly ideologically motivated to strengthen the State of Israel and help it realize its potential, how do they believe this ends?

Let’s imagine a future where they succeed: the Gaza campaign kills another 30% of Hamas’s leadership; Gaza’s people decide they fear Israel’s wrath more than the wrath of Hamas and pressure Hamas’s leaders to give in to Israel’s demands. Israel’s attorney general is fired, as is the director of the Shabak, and Netanyahu appoints people loyal to him whom he can trust to do his will. The courts are bent to the interests of the current Knesset, and new judges are appointed – and existing judges advanced – based on the Knesset’s current construction and political mix. Netanyahu defeats the Deep State and his will is done.

And then what?

The Sunni deradicalized access has repeatedly been clear that it cannot make peace with Israel until the Palestinians have self-determination of some sort. Israel’s non-settler, non-ultra-Orthodox, non-non-Jewish population — the secular and traditional people who pay 97% of the taxes — have repeatedly expressed that they will not vote for Netanyahu or anyone else in this coalition in the next elections. Many are looking to leave the country already. Leaders of Israel’s high-tech industry, whose contribution was evident with Google’s $33 billion purchase of Wiz, indicated that they will not live and work here under an autocracy. Israel’s pilots and elite commandos have all repeatedly said that they would not carry out the missions critical to Israel’s offensive power under Netanyahu’s authoritarian rule.

In common between all of these reactions to Netanyahu’s victory is that they are the sum of independent decisions — decisions Netanyahu cannot control. He cannot, of course, force the Sunni to make peace with Israel. He cannot, obviously, force the secular and traditional Jews to vote for him. He cannot, in any way, keep high tech in Israel if the talent goes elsewhere. He cannot, no matter how much he yells and screams, force people to risk their lives for a state they do not believe in.

While the current Deputy Defense Minister Bezalel Smotrich may believe this stalemate will be solved with the Lord’s direct intervention, and the illegally appointed current Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir may believe that everyone will bend through the power of his character, Israel’s history has proven once and again that without agreement between the Jewish people, the Jewish state cannot stand.

For all the current governments’ talk about how being elected gives them a mandate to do what they want, Netanyahu and his coalition seem to have forgotten that a democracy is maintained not through elections, but through the legitimacy the government earns after those elections are concluded.

Given that this government has lost its legitimacy with over two-thirds of the Israeli electorate, the only way this ends well for Netanyahu or the State of Israel is with another election, to ensure the will of the people is expressed at the ballot and not through force. The sooner the better. Otherwise, a 70-year-old former commando with a prostate problem — or a heartbroken family member of a now-murdered hostage — will end up taking the law into their own hands.