Impending Doom for Middle East: Türkiye

The Syrian civil war came to a dramatic end on December 8, 2024, when Bashar al-Assad, the former president and lifelong dictator, reportedly fled to Moscow in a desperate bid to save his life. For over 13 harrowing years, the Syrian people endured relentless cruelty, persecution, and oppression—not only from their own government but also from its powerful allies, Russia and Iran. Entire generations grew up in the shadow of violence, their lives scarred by bombings, starvation, and displacement.

Despite countless international sanctions and the fiery resistance of rebel groups that turned the countryside into a battleground, Assad clung to power with an unyielding iron fist, ruling from Damascus while his country burned. The war drew in global and regional powers alike, turning Syria into a chessboard of competing interests. Türkiye, sharing a 909-kilometer border with the war-ravaged nation, was not just a neighbor but a frontline state caught in the crossfire of this tragedy.

This conflict left a legacy of shattered lives, devastated cities, and a region forever changed—its wounds still raw, its future uncertain. Yet, as the dust begins to settle, one question lingers: Can Syria rise from the ashes, or will the scars of this dark chapter remain etched in its soul forever? The president-elect Donald Trump, who will assume office on January 20, 2025 answered this question: “I think Turkey is gonna hold the key to Syria, actually,” in one of his press conferences.

In recent years, Türkiye’s increasing military footprint and cross-border ambitions have become well-known. During the early 2000s, President Erdoğan sought to involve Türkiye in the Second Gulf War, but the parliament intervened to block this move. Since then, Türkiye’s strength and influence have grown alongside Erdoğan’s leadership. From the Libyan coastline to the maritime boundaries of Cyprus, referred to as “Mavi Vatan” (Blue Homeland), Türkiye’s reach extends even further—to the Somali hinterland through a shore protection agreement with the Somali government and into the Caucasus, bolstered by the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

For decades, Syria’s anti-Turkish stance was no secret. From openly supporting the PKK, a Kurdish separatist group that targeted Türkiye, to blocking the Qatar–Türkiye natural gas pipeline to protect Russian dominance in Europe’s energy market, the hostility was palpable. When the Syrian Civil War erupted, Türkiye wasted no time siding with the rebels, seizing an opportunity to reshape a shattered Syria under a Turkish-backed administration. The stakes were high, but the rewards seemed within reach.

Meanwhile, the US and its allies appeared indifferent to Türkiye’s bold ambitions. President Trump’s blunt comments only amplified this perception: “Those people who went in are controlled by Turkey, and that’s okay—it’s another way to fight,” and continued by stating his desire of withdrawing US forces from the region entirely. In the chaotic chessboard of Middle Eastern geopolitics, Türkiye seemed poised to claim victory, while others looked the other way.

Could these unfolding events signal a silent pact—an understanding that positions Türkiye as the guardian the US’s interests in the region, in return for control over Syria’s oil-rich territories now held by the PYD? Türkiye’s insatiable hunger for hydrocarbon resources aligns with the US’s growing desire to shift focus toward the Pacific. Yet, with the Ukraine-Russia war already pulling Washington’s attention in another direction, is it time to let Türkiye take the reins in the Middle East? Israel continues its dance of diplomacy, striving to find common ground with its Arab neighbors and the ever-looming threat of Iran. Amid this uncertainty, Türkiye’s bold ambitions and strategic positioning seem to make it the perfect candidate to fill the vacuum. Is this the dawn of a new era in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with Türkiye standing at the center?

More recently, in April, President Erdoğan visited Baghdad, Iraq’s capital, and Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish Regional Government. These visits culminated in agreements that align seamlessly with Türkiye’s ambitions, signaling a calculated and determined push for influence. Erdoğan is clearly a man with a plan—one that defies hesitation and embraces action.

Footage of Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan and MIT (Türkiye’s central intelligence agency) Director İbrahim Kalın praying at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus has surfaced in the media. This visit carries historical and political significance. In the early years of the Syrian civil war, President Erdoğan famously declared to the opposition, “We are going to pray in the Umayyad Mosque,” a statement that ignited heated debates in the Turkish parliament.

In the last quarter of 2023, some sources reported that President Erdoğan also expressed interest in praying at the Al-Aqsa Mosque or, at the very least, arranging a trip to Israel as soon as possible.

Although bamboos are nurtured with water and care every single day for many years—at least five—they seem to remain dormant, barely growing at all. Then, in a breathtaking burst of life, they shoot up to an astonishing 25 meters in just six months. The real question is: Was the bamboo quietly growing all along, laying its foundation in those five years, or did it truly transform in those six miraculous months? Türkiye may answer this question very soon.

As I always say, time will show.