Iran Doesn’t Want a War [They’re Already Winning]

Israel is bracing for an Iranian response to the elimination of high ranking Revolutionary Guard officers in the attack against the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus. The fear in Israel, the region and international community is that a large Iranian response that causes major damage and casualties will spark a massive retaliation from Israel, which could then explode into an all out war that engulfs the entire region and beyond.

There seems to be no doubt that Iran will respond in some manner, either directly from Iranian soil or via one of its regional proxies, including Hezbollah. What is in doubt is the scope of the Iranian response.

No one knows what will actually happen but, if I had to guess, I’d say that Iran will respond through one of its proxies and in a way that is manageable by Israel. In other words, I doubt that there will be a massive Iranian attack against Tel Aviv or Jerusalem, or any other major population center. Iran also will not direct Hezbollah to do that either (and we know Hezbollah has the capability to do exactly that). Doing that would inevitably start a war, and that’s the last thing that Iran wants now.

Why doesn’t Iran want the outbreak of a major war? Because they are already achieving their objectives on every front through their proxies.

1. Hezbollah has driven over 100,000 Israelis from their homes and has made northern Israel practically unlivable.They’re accomplished that by firing less than a dozen missiles and drones per day, which is just a tiny taste of the 150,000 missiles they have stockpiled in Lebanon. Yes, they have taken some punishment from the IDF for their constant attacks, but again, the pain is proportionately small compared to their capabilities.  If Iran wanted a war they could easily just direct Hezbollah to fire 10,000 missiles at Tel Aviv, and they’d get their wish fulfilled. But they haven’t done that.
2. Hamas is still existing as a viable fighting force with thousands of terrorists remaining active in Rafah and throughout Gaza. Despite the IDF’s best efforts, if the war in Gaza ended today, Hamas would claim victory. With the IDF withdrawal of almost all of its troops from the strip, Hamas is undoubtedly feeling like they’ve got a very good chance of actually doing just that. They invaded Israel, massacred 1,200 Israel in the most brutal and barbaric fashion, took over 200 hostages, and lived to celebrate. Southern Israel will never be the same for the civilians that actually do decide to return. Another major victory for Iran.
3. After an initial couple of weeks of almost complete support, the world has now turned against Israel. Even the US is warning Israel to refrain from attacking Rafah and to agree to a ceasefire — even if that means the continued existence of Hamas and the risk of more Oct. 7ths. A massive Iranian attack against Israel would potentially ruin this ideal situation and turn US and world support back behind Israel. Iran has engineered a situation where the world is squarely against Israel. Why would they want to ruin that by starting a war?
4. Iran is exporting tens of billions of dollars of oil, mostly to China. They don’t want to do anything that might jeopardize that flow of oil and cash.
5. Iran still has a nuclear program that is quietly moving forward. It does not want to draw attention to that.  And of course, any war with Israel will give Israel the excuse to hit Iranian nuclear facilities and potentially destroy them. So the last thing Iran needs now is to be in the news headlines with a war on its hands and to put its nuclear program at risk.

The bottom line is that Iran does NOT want a war now. It doesn’t need one to accomplish the slow and steady isolation and destruction of Israel. It’s doing just fine through Hezbollah, Hamas and world opinion. So while Iran will have to attack Israel in some form, to save face in the wake of the attack against its embassy compound, I don’t think it will be the kind of attack that leads to war.