Iran’s Mullahs Face Their Point of Maximum Danger
Effective Tuesday, June 24, President Trump announced and enforced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This silenced the guns after twelve days which had proved disastrous for Iran. Many of Iran’s top generals and nuclear scientists were killed, many of its missile launchers destroyed and, in the final hours, reports reached the West that Israel had launched a coordinated attack on many Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) bases, with lorries carrying away dozens of bodies of IRGC soldiers after the attack.
Discussion in the West centered on whether the ceasefire came too early. Perhaps Israel, or even the United States, should have pressed on in hopes of topping the Islamic Republic. Those sentiments disregard the fact that, without putting boots on the ground, neither Israel nor the United States can effect regime change. Further, it is actually this time period, after the guns have fallen silent, that constitutes the most dangerous time for the remaining Mullahs hiding in the bunkers below Teheran.
Just imagine how the ordinary Iranian feels right now. He/she watched his/her country bombed incessantly for twelve days with no real response from the government. Even supporters of the regime must be furious at the sheer incompetence of Iranian air defenses. Is there an Iranian Air Force? What happened to it? Were there even any old style anti-aircraft batteries? Why didn’t they fire?
And what happened to the vaunted Axis of Resistance that the Iranian government spent billions of dollars on over the last forty years? Did Iran get any return from that investment? How much better would Iranians live now had that money stayed at home instead of being diverted to the radical Shia in Lebanon, who appear now to have no genitals (literally)? How difficult will it be for the government to convince the 100 million Iranians that this government should remain in power? In 1990 the standard of living of the average Iranian was comparable to the average Israeli. 35 years later the average GDP per Israeli citizen is almost 20 times that of the average Iranian.
Of course the Mullahs still have most of the guns, but that is problematic for them also. They have armed the Iranian Army, the IRGC and the Basij (internal security service). The last few months have shown however, how infiltrated these agencies have been by the Mossad. In the coming days and weeks everybody will be pointing fingers at everybody else. As the IRGC is the Ayatollahs “Pretorian Guard”, expect them to go after the regular army. Don’t expect the Iranian Army to accept this lying down. Seething with resentment after forty years of watching the IRGC get preferential treatment in weapons, training, material goods and everything else, many regular army officers likely would prefer nothing more than to put an end to the IRGC, and with that likely the Islamic Republic itself.
The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 86 years old and in ill health. Over the last few days it has been reported that he has picked three possible successors, with the Iranian Council of Experts to make the final decision. It is anybody’s guess if that person would be able to consolidate power now that a peaceful transition no longer is a given.
One advantage the regime has is the lack of a coordinated opposition. The best known opposition figure in the West is Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah. Pahlavi is 65 years old. While he is claiming that officers in the Iranian military have contacted him and professed loyalty to him, we really don’t know how much support he actually has inside Iran. A military coup is possible, but again most of us in the West know little of the internal goings on in the Iranian military.
Regardless, it is going to be a rough ride for the Ayatollahs. The Iranian public has little stomach for Islam after 46 years of a radical form of that religion has been forced down its throat. Most of the mosques already have closed for lack of interest. The women are furious about being degraded for half a century, and the public is tired of having its living standards lessened for the benefit of radicals one thousand miles away regarding a conflict they care little about. It will be quite a juggling act for the Ayatollahs to try to put back together a government that has proved so ineffective and impotent in effectuating its main cause, which never was of much interest to the Iranian people and has hurt their quality of life.
