Iran’s Nuke Is Back: How Long Can CRINK Go Business as Usual?

Iran is set to resume talks with Germany, France, and the UK (E3) in Geneva on November 29. These discussions, focusing on Iran’s nuclear program and regional issues like Palestine and Lebanon, come in the wake of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) vote to condemn Iran’s violations of the JCPOA framework. Russia and China’s opposition to the E3 resolution was predictable, reflecting consistent support for Tehran. However, behind this apparent unity lie divergent interests between Moscow and Beijing.

Russia and China’s opposition to the E3 resolution condemning Iran’s JCPOA violations was unsurprising. China’s Permanent Mission to the UN emphasised its commitment to diplomacy, reiterating the importance of avoiding escalation. Beijing stated its goal was to balance regional security needs with Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy. Meanwhile, the EU-3, backed by the U.S., dismissed Iran’s gestures of cooperation as insufficient and pushed for a censure vote.

The legacy of Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 casts a long shadow. Iran significantly expanded its nuclear program in response and now holds enough enriched uranium for at least four nuclear weapons, should it choose to enhance the material further and develop detonation mechanisms. Hoping to avert intensified scrutiny ahead of Trump’s return, Iranian officials recently sought to demonstrate symbolic cooperation with the IAEA. This included inviting Director-General Raphael Mariano Grossi to Tehran and proposing to limit its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. Despite these gestures, the EU-3 remained unmoved, highlighting Tehran’s ongoing non-compliance.

The CRINK Bloc and Risks of Escalation

CRINK represents a consolidated alignment using Tehran as a regional pivot to counter Western power. Iran remains a critical partner for both Russia and China. Jonathan Schanzer, Vice President for Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), explains: “The Russia-Iran military partnership has reached unprecedented levels during the Ukraine war. Tehran is not only supplying drones but also providing critical material support that helps Moscow prolong the conflict. This relationship is no longer transactional; it is a deeply strategic alignment with long-term implications for global security.”

However, while this axis strengthens, Iran’s nuclear ambitions could disrupt CRINK’s stability. Behnam Ben Taleblu, Senior Fellow at FDD, notes: “Iran is the linchpin of the CRINK bloc. Without Tehran’s active participation—whether through weapons, oil, or diplomacy—the strategic calculus of Moscow and Beijing would shift. This makes Iran both an asset and a liability for its partners, as its nuclear ambitions risk alienating key regional actors that China and Russia cannot afford to lose.”

Iran’s unchecked nuclear advances set the stage for the EU-3 and the incoming Trump administration to trigger a snap-back of all U.N. sanctions under UNSC Resolution 2231. Such a move would formally bind China to reduce its purchases of Iranian oil, a critical source of Tehran’s economic resilience. This dynamic could test the limits of Beijing’s alignment with Tehran, especially as China balances its Gulf partnerships.

Internal Divisions in Iran and the Shadow of a Nuclear Arms Race

Iran remains divided internally. Hardliners argue that a nuclear weapon is the only way to deter Israel and the U.S., while pragmatists like President Masoud Pezeshkian and Vice President Abbas Araghchi advocate compromise. They emphasise Iran’s economic vulnerabilities and the risks of further conflict. Despite mounting Western pressure, Araghchi has suggested testing Trump’s willingness to negotiate a revised deal, though this faces stiff opposition from the incoming U.S. administration.

The Trump administration’s foreign policy nominees have demanded sweeping concessions from Tehran. These include the complete prohibition of uranium enrichment and binding restraints on Iran’s support for its Axis of Resistance allies. During his campaign, Trump stated he would support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, reinforcing Prime Minister Netanyahu’s stance that “all necessary steps” must be taken to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

A Fragile Partnership: How Long Can CRINK Hold Together?

Russia and China’s opposition to the E3 resolution reflect their usual alignment with Tehran. However, the diverging interests of Moscow and Beijing underline the fragile nature of their partnership. Russia seems willing to support Iran’s ambitions as an anti-Western ally, while China carefully balances its regional relationships.

How long can CRINK go business as usual? While the bloc appears stable now, its future cohesion is far from guaranteed. The risk lies in the diverging strategic priorities of its members: Moscow seeks to leverage Iran for its geopolitical objectives. At the same time, Beijing cannot afford to alienate its Gulf partners. As multipolar tensions grow, the CRINK partnership could face increasing strain.