Erfan Fard

Iran’s Regime Change Barriers: Reformists – Russia

some figures of the pro-regime's Reformists in Iran, Picture in Persian Social Media , free for any platforms

The Pro-regime Reformists and Russia are the main obstacles to democracy and regime change in Iran. period.

These days, the political community within Iran is engrossed in the media game of the reformists, shameless, multifaceted, and corrupt individuals who are the protectors and guardians of the authoritarian religious government.

Some officials from the United States, Europe, and Saudi Arabia might also prefer that if any change occurs in Iran, it ends up benefiting the reformist orientation (the ideological line of Khatami, Rafsanjani, Karroubi, Mousavi, etc.) and sideline the hardliners (like Khamenei, etc.), while also preserving the Islamic and religious power structure in Iran. Saudi Arabia has bought off many Iranian officials, had good relations with the Rafsanjani faction, with Mohajerani, with Karbaschi, with Ali Shamkhani, and others. The United States and Israel also received messages from some of the commanders of the IRGC and the MOIS, all of whom were dismissed by the security institutions of the Islamic Republic. These individuals lack popularity and legitimacy within Iranian society. Perhaps it is not currently deemed expedient to expose them publicly.

However, this religious theocratic regime, whether reformist, conservative, or radical, lacks credibility among the Iranian populace. Some of the internal protest movements were also initiated by this band of reformists with the help of their media mafia, attempting to gain concessions from the dominant government.

But the Iranian society is seeking change and continues to say: conservative, reformist, the story is over! Yet, the media mafia abroad is still influenced by this same dreadful and corrupt band. Reformists and Conservatives (Hardliners) are two sides of the same coin, both aiming to preserve the autocratic structure of the religious regime and a mafia full of corruption and terrorism.

The Reformists (Islamic left) desire that the leftist ideological spectrum, including Marxist left, Socialist left (Republicans), separatists, saboteurs linked to the 1979 revolt in Iran, and others, remains intact, preventing anyone from moving beyond the 1979 structure, and keeping the outdated and worn-out regime of the mullahs in place. Even the reformist mafia abroad in Europe and America occasionally organizes political shows to divert the course of the Iranian people’s struggle.

And interestingly, some of the figures in the fake opposition are also affiliated with the same corrupt band of reformists. For instance, during the protests following the death of Mahsa Amini, they wanted to gain credibility from Prince Reza Pahlavi and then stab him in the back. The only threat to the reformists is the persona of HRH Reza Pahlavi, and within their media band, they aim to undermine him by promoting several discredited figures as leaders. They even wish to call a separatist terrorist the leader of minorities, while the Iranian people are united and have no inclination towards division and tribalism. The only person who can help Iranian society during the transition period is Prince Reza Pahlavi, but the power-hungry, the corrupt, and the agents of the reformists have no interest in this narrative.

Another significant hindrance to change in Iran is Russia and the Kremlin. Before 1979, most terrorists following Khomeini were affiliated with the Soviet Union or relied on Soviet allies like Saddam, Gaddafi, Yasser Arafat, Castro, Enver Hoxha, etc. Some mullahs, like Mohammad Mousavi Khoeiniha, were officially Russophiles among the reformist patriarchs in Iran.

Khamenei has directly leaned on Russia and China, serving the Kremlin and the former KGB colonel, to pursue his anti-West, anti-American, and anti-Israeli agenda. And of course, to guarantee the succession of his son – Mojtaba – after his death. Over these 45 years, Russia has managed to buy off many of the Islamic Republic’s military and security officials, outperforming Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Israel, turning most officials into Russophiles. These elements are obstacles to regime change, modernity, and democracy in Iran.

Therefore, the scene of the regime’s collapse in Iran is a rocky, steep, and dark path. Neither the reformists nor the Russians have the national interests and welfare of Iran in mind. They are even willing to see Iran disintegrate rather than shift towards the institutionalization of democracy.

Putin, Khamenei and Raisi / Picture : Kremlin – Free for all Media
About the Author
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, Counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and Ethnic conflicts in MENA. \He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA), and is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. Follow him in this twitter account @EQFARD
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