Iran’s Terrorism: A Threat to Syria’s Stability

The renewed offensive by Syrian rebels in northern provinces, particularly Idlib and Aleppo, underscores the enduring complexity of Syria’s civil war. At the heart of this conflict lies the Iranian regime’s expansive and destabilizing role. While Iran’s regime justifies its military presence in Syria as a “defensive” measure to counter extremist threats and support Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the reality is far more sinister. Tehran’s strategy not only exacerbates the humanitarian crisis but also intensifies regional instability, pushing the Middle East further from peace and security.

Iran’s Terrorist Proxy Network: A Double-Edged Sword

Iran’s involvement in Syria revolves around its notorious strategy of proxy warfare, employing groups like Hezbollah to exert influence and bolster its so-called “Resistance Axis.” The Islamic IRGC’s thugs, central to Iran’s foreign policy, ensures a steady supply of arms, training, and financial support to these terrorist proxies. The death of  Kioumars Pourhashemi from Quds Force in Aleppo highlights the extent of Tehran’s direct military engagement. This strategy, while aimed at securing Iran’s regional hegemony, exposes critical vulnerabilities:

1. Countermeasures from Adversaries: Israel’s relentless campaign against Iranian positions in Syria has significantly degraded Tehran’s military infrastructure and Terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah. The group’s recent setbacks illustrate the limitations of Iran’s overstretched resources.
2. Terrorist Proxy Fractures: Strains within Iran’s allied terrorist militias have emerged, particularly as Hezbollah redirects its focus toward Israel. This leaves Assad’s forces and other Iranian-backed units more exposed to rebel advances.
3. Regional Blowback: Iran’s actions have not only fueled sectarian divides but also provoked opposition from Arab states and Turkey, complicating its long-term goals.

Rebels Seize an Opportunity

The rebels’ recent offensive capitalized on Iran’s diminished regional influence, Russia’s distraction with Ukraine, and Hezbollah’s weakened state. By capturing significant territory near Aleppo, opposition forces exposed vulnerabilities in Assad’s defenses, long bolstered by Iranian and Russian support. This operation highlights two critical shifts:

1. The Diminishing “Axis of Resistance”: Iran’s flagship narrative of countering Western and Israeli “aggression” has lost credibility. Its regional allies, once formidable, are now mired in their own crises, reducing their effectiveness on the battlefield.
2. Evolving Insurgency Tactics: Rebel groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have adapted by utilizing advanced technologies, propaganda, and alliances, presenting a renewed challenge to Iranian and Syrian forces.

A Broader Security Implication

Iran’s continued military engagement in Syria perpetuates a cycle of violence and terrorism that weakens both state and human security. Its attempts to maintain supply routes to Hezbollah and secure a strategic foothold have made Syria a theater of perpetual conflict, with severe consequences:

• Humanitarian Crisis: Iran’s support for Assad’s brutal campaigns has displaced millions and devastated civilian infrastructure. The recent clashes have intensified these hardships, creating new waves of refugees.
• Regional Destabilization: Tehran’s actions have turned Syria into a battlefield for competing powers, inviting interventions from Turkey, Israel, and the United States, while straining already fragile ceasefires.
• Global Counterterrorism Challenges: The resurgence of jihadist groups in Syria, emboldened by Iran’s missteps, complicates international efforts to curb extremism.

A Diminishing-Return Strategy

Iran’s Syria policy is increasingly becoming a liability. The regime faces domestic unrest, economic sanctions, and declining international legitimacy. Its entrenchment in Syria not only drains resources but also exposes the IRGC to sustained Israeli airstrikes and mounting casualties. The Syrian people, meanwhile, bear the brunt of this geopolitical chess game, trapped between a repressive regime and insurgent groups.

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The Iranian outlaw regime’s pursuit of power through proxy wars and regional interference is a reckless gamble with far-reaching consequences. In Syria, this strategy has backfired, weakening Tehran’s influence, escalating conflict, and fueling a humanitarian catastrophe. For the international community, countering Iran’s malign activities requires a comprehensive approach, combining diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and support for regional stability initiatives. Until Iran’s destructive footprint in Syria is curtailed, the Middle East will remain mired in instability, with peace a distant dream.

Iranian rally in Los Angeles; ( Ketab.com, Photo) / Elham Sataki

The IRGC’s presence in Syria is a high-cost strategy aimed at projecting power, maintaining supply routes to Hezbollah, & bolstering its so-called “Resistance Axis,” but it suffers from significant vulnerabilities, including Israeli countermeasures, counterintelligence failures, & strained proxy cohesion. This approach destabilizes the region, weakens Iran’s economic & domestic standing, & exposes its Terrorist forces to escalating regional & international opposition, making it a diminishing-return strategy with high risks.

The Syrian rebels’ offensive exploits weakened Iranian proxies, such as Hezbollah, & Russia‘s distracted focus on Ukraine, capturing significant territory near Aleppo & Idlib while destabilizing Assad‘s regime. This highlights the shifting power dynamics in the region, with Iran’s diminishing influence, Turkey‘s cautious interventions, & Israel‘s strategic operations further fracturing the “Axis of Islamic Terrorism“.