Dotan Rousso

Iran’s Threat: Strategies for Israel and the West

Figures of Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, left, and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, marching during the Iranian-American communities’ protests in Washington. (AFP)

Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, and over the years, Iran has meticulously crafted a strategy of sponsoring and arming proxy groups across the region, amplifying the strategic threats posed to Israel. This support for proxies has been steadily escalating, evidenced by the increasing sophistication and frequency of attacks directed towards Israel.

Israel, in response, has adopted a policy of containment, engaging in targeted strikes against threats emanating from Iran and its proxies, particularly in Syria and Lebanon.

Despite these efforts, Iran has managed to significantly tighten its grip around Israel, building a formidable network of alliances and military capabilities, ready to be deployed at a moment’s notice. Recent events, such as Iran’s failed attempt at attacking Israel, underscore the regime’s cautious approach, indicating a reluctance to escalate into a full-blown regional conflict.

This presents a strategic opportunity for Israel and its Western allies to pursue actions aimed at destabilizing the Iranian regime. Data from various sources reveals a growing discontent among the Iranian populace towards the oppressive rule of the Ayatollahs. Surveys conducted within Iran indicate widespread dissatisfaction, particularly among the youth, who increasingly express a desire for regime change.

To capitalize on this internal dissent, Israel and its allies must focus on providing the Iranian people with the necessary tools and support to overthrow the regime. This could involve supplying technological solutions that enable internal dissent and communication, cultivating relationships with influential figures within the regime to encourage defections, and even facilitating the distribution of militant capabilities to Iranian citizens willing to resist the regime’s ruthless suppression.

The lessons learned from the “Arab Spring” serve as a testament to the potential for mass uprisings against oppressive regimes. In countries like Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia, people took to the streets in massive protests, demanding political reform and an end to authoritarian rule. This serves as a poignant reminder of the potential for grassroots movements to challenge entrenched power structures and effect significant change. For example, in Egypt, the protests led to the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak, who had ruled for nearly 30 years, demonstrating the impact of sustained popular mobilization. This historical context underscores the importance of supporting similar movements within Iran, where discontent with the ruling regime is palpable and ripe for catalyzing meaningful change.

The explosive elements for such an uprising already exist within Iran, waiting for the right conditions to ignite. It is incumbent upon Israel and its allies to support and facilitate this process, as it represents the most viable path toward effecting real change in the region. By leveraging the discontent within Iran and actively supporting efforts to overthrow the regime, Israel and its allies have the opportunity to reshape the Middle Eastern landscape, potentially paving the way for peace and stability in the region.

About the Author
Dotan Rousso, Holds a Ph.D. in Law—a former criminal prosecutor in Israel. He currently lives in Alberta and teaches Philosophy at the Southern Alberta Institute of Technology (SAIT).
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