Is it time to end the war?

There’s a skepticism that meets the announcement of Israel’s war goals, and it is the sense at which a large range of security experts and diplomats view it as being unrealistic, announcing instead a diplomatic solution as a better alternative.
This same sentiment reverberates through a large proportion of Israel’s citizens too, most especially those clamoring for an hostage deal. In the same vein a number of academics and analysts have concluded Israel’s mission as being ‘escalate to de-escalate’, viz a viz; Israel’s government can only delay the obvious, which is getting back on a negotiation table with both Hamas and Hezbollah.

But Netanyahu’s speech at the UN yesterday presented what seem a new reality, viz; Israel seeks the complete dismantling of Hamas and downgrading of Hezbollah.
While a large proportion of analysts agree with Netanyahu on the possibility of dismantling Hamas, it seems a completely different game in terms of Hezbollah, even with the confirmation of Nasrallah’s death a few hours ago.

In my view, the basic challenge for experts shouldn’t be what a post war Israel could look like, but rather what a post Hamas and Hezbollah resistance to Israel could be.

It is a plain fact that the present war would not put an end to the ‘axis of resistance’ against Israel’s very existence; which most Israelis have properly dubbed as ‘the axis of terror’. The question which should trouble all, is what face the new axis of resistance could take.

Post 1948 Israel saw this ‘axis of resistance’ predominantly led by State actors; Egypt, Syria, Jordan, etcetera, most of whom directly committed their armed forces into attacking Israel, and had series of goals, none of which actually got fulfilled. However the Post Yom Kippur war Israel saw a sudden switch in this ‘axis of resistance’ from being ‘State actors’ into ‘non-State actors’. The collapse and reorganization of a majority of these organizations, as well as their methods creates a reality of something else coming, should the present ‘axis of resistance’ completely get dismantled.

Firstly a dismantled Hamas would not necessarily mean an obliterated Hamas, probably it may mean a transition into a non-violent social organization, much in the same way the PLO has become less militant in recent times.

Secondly, a dismantled Hezbollah could for the time being close down an axis of Iran’s hostile network on Israel, but in the same vein, it would trigger a reinvention of another. The form, nature and modus operandi of what that can be would remain to be seen.

Still, while Israel takes on a military solution to the ‘axis of resistance’ against her statehood, she also must begin the process of reinventing herself into what reality a Post Hamas Gaza and a Post Hezbollah Lebanon could present. She must be able to predict and test run all alternative means, systems and method, both military and non military, the new phase of resistance could take.

Could the ‘axis of resistance’ shift back into the circles of state actors? Would there be a resurrection of buried non-state actors? Could the next phase of resistance become a merger of both? or could it take the form of passive aggression?

The State of Israel may not in reality have the wherewithal to decide what the next ‘resistance’ moves could be, but she must of necessity create a dynamic to determine how it should be.