Israel, Somaliland, and the Arab World’s Missed Opportunity
Over the weekend, Israel made history, becoming the first country in the world to re-recognize Somaliland as an independent state.
Unexpectedly, this decision was met with criticism by Somalia’s Middle Eastern Partners. However, rejecting this decision outright misses an opportunity to advance steps toward Palestinian statehood. In the post-Gaza war world, the question of Palestinian self-determination is back on the table in a major way. As Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the Palestinian Authority, and most importantly, the Trump Administration seek to gain concessions from Israel on this front, Israel’s own decision to recognize the self-determination of Somalilanders could be the perfect tool needed to make the case for more concrete steps towards Palestinian sovereignty in post-Gaza war planning.
Somaliland is an autonomous region in Northwestern Somalia, predominantly inhabited by members of the Isaaq clan, that was settled by the British rather than the Italians in Southern Somalia. In the 1960’s, Somaliland was recognized as an independent country, including by Israel, until it voluntarily united with Somalia as part of a larger pan-Somali political project. After the fall of the Siad Barre regime in the 90’s, Somaliland reasserted its independence, holding several successful elections and transitions of power, having its own military, currency, national symbols, and conducting its own foreign policy. By African Union standards, Somaliland meets all criteria for independence, but has faced pushback due to fears of regional destabilization.
There are numerous reasons for Israel to seek relations with Somaliland including access to strategic military posts along the Gulf of Aden, deepening commercial ties with the UAE and Ethiopia, both allies of Somaliland, seeking a perceived diplomatic win at a time when the country is isolated and in need of new friends, or further alignment with the Trump administration as they consider their own engagement with Somaliland.
In the call posted on X with President Abdirahman Irro announcing the declaration of recognition, Prime Minister Netanyahu explicitly acknowledges Somaliland’s “right of self-determination.
Condemnation of this decision from the wider region is not surprising, particularly from countries like Egypt, Qatar, and Turkiye, which are close allies with Somalia. However, the strongly worded condemnations from states like Saudi Arabia and Palestine itself seem quite counterproductive.
Take this statement from the State of Palestine Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which “expresses its rejection and condemnation of Israel’s recognition—by the illegitimate occupying power—of the Somaliland region, and its rejection of any steps that support separation or lend legitimacy to it, or that undermine Somalia’s sovereignty and unity and destabilize it.” Or this post on X, mocking the notion of Somaliland sovereignty. While solidarity with other members of the Arab League is logical, it would be more effective to leverage Israel’s supposed commitment to the self-determination of an unrecognized people at a time when Palestine itself is seeking a very similar recognition from the international community. This isn’t to say that Palestine needs to be applauding this decision, given previous statements indicating that Israel would like to relocate Gaza’s refugees to the Horn of Africa, but not using the notion of self-determination to further their cause for statehood at a moment in history where this issue is front and center for so many is a self-defeating, tactical error. Specifically, the Palestinian Authority could use this momentum to push for a greater role in Gaza governance.
Similarly, take the Saudi statement on the issue. “The Foreign Ministry affirms the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s full support for the sovereignty of the brotherly Federal Republic of Somalia, and for its unity and territorial integrity. The Kingdom expresses its rejection of the announcement of mutual recognition between the Israeli occupation authorities and the Somaliland region, considering it an action that entrenches unilateral secessionist measures that violate international law.”
Yes, as the leader of the Arab world, Saudi Arabia must stand in solidarity with its fellow Arab League members. However, the Kingdom is missing a major opportunity to push the Israelis on Palestinian self-determination. For the past few years, the Saudis have been a major force on the Palestinian question. Prior to October 7, Saudi Arabia and Israel were on the precipice of their own normalization. For this to happen, the Saudis demanded “a credible, irreversible path to a Palestinian state.” In the wake of October 7 and the war in Gaza, the Saudis have only doubled down on this demand, hosting a conference in Paris this year aimed at creating an “irreversible political path” to a two-state solution. Now, when looking at the post-war planning for Gaza, the Saudis have been adamant that a Palestinian Authority role in Gaza is a requirement for their support.
The current Netanyahu government has been opposed to PA involvement in Gaza, and continues to remain adamant against Palestinian sovereignty. Yet by using the language of self-determination in its recognition of Somaliland, Netanyahu has given the Arab states a powerful tool call his bluff and push for Palestinian self-determination.
With Netanyahu coming to the U.S. and meeting with the President today in Florida, and President Trump set to announce his board of peace for Gaza soon, states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have robust relations with Somaliland themselves, have an unparalleled opportunity to make a final push for concrete steps on the Palestinian question. Instead of the exclusive condemnation of this moment, they must utilize the very language of self-determination used by Netanyahu himself to ensure that the PA has a role in Gaza and that a path to Palestinian statehood can be laid out.
President Trump could be the lynch pin in all of this. Determined to push forward on Gaza reconstruction, well-positioned to pressure Netanyahu, and closely allied with the Saudis and Emiratis, as well as the Egyptian, Qataris, and Turks, who were even more upset by this decision, Trump could harness this spirit of self-determination, as outlined by the Israelis, to make a truly significant change in the Middle East. Yet, the question remains, will the countries of the world seize this moment, or squander it in self-defeating politics?
