The Blogs: Israeli Election Retrospective: Herzog’s Obligation

A day after the polls closed in Israel, we can be sure of just five things:

A higher percentage of Israeli’s voted in this election than at any time in our history, attesting to the perceived importance of the vote.
Most likely Benjamin Natanyahu’s Likud party will end up with more votes than Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party.
Neither of these two people have sufficient mandates in their respective blocs to form a majority government.
What Yogi Berra said to reporters in July 1973 when asked if his last-place Mets team was finished, and the team eventually rallied to win the division was true then and remains true today: “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”
The most important person in the state of Israel beginning today is President Yitzchak Herzog.

What are we to make of the numbers being reported? I have been saying for months that 70% of the Israeli public wants to see a change in government, wants to see new leadership at the top and, down deep, agrees that for the long-term health and welfare of a democracy, no one should be in power for 19 years as has been the case with our current prime minister. Yet one could argue that the vote does not verify that assumption.

However, what most people don’t realize is that because we have so many parties vying for votes (38 in this election) people can very easily vote for someone they would like to see either enter or remain in government, yet still be in favor of a change at the top.

I personally know people, for example, who are very much in favor of a change in the prime minister’s office but voted for Smotrich’s Religious Zionist party because they are religious Zionists and the party is in line with their value system. That situation replicates itself throughout the system and is made possible by the preponderance of so many political parties. In effect it encourages vote splitting, as it were, but lacks the clear message needed to unseat a prime minister.

As such, the most important person in Israel the day after this type of election is the President of the country, Yitzchak Herzog. Over the next weeks he will meet with the heads of the 10 parties who made it over the threshold and captured at least 3.25% of the total vote. Based on those meetings he will get a sense of which ones are interested in being part of the coalition of either Netanyahu or Eisenkot or both. He may also get a sense that perhaps there is another party head who, while not securing as many mandates as the two leaders, yet perhaps has a better chance of forming a governing coalition.

In addition, he must also internalize the overall sense of the electorate vis-à-vis their desire or lack thereof for new leadership and fold that into his decision making. For example, if he believes that both of the top two vote getters are each able to form a government, he may then decide to factor in his sense of how badly the populace wants change. That qualitative variable could, and perhaps should, push him in one direction or another.

After all of this work is complete, during which there will be a significant amount of political “horse trading” going on in the background as well, the President will then extend an invitation to one party head to try to form Israel’s next government.

The process will not be an easy one. However, President Herzog has shown during his years in office, that he has the temperament, experience and knowledge to rise to the occasion and make a decision that is best for the country and which will ensure our continued growth and success.

Therefore, beginning today, he is the most important person in the country. At times like this, and according to our tradition, we wish for his success as expressed in the words of the misheberach prayer for the President of Israel.

“May the One who blessed our ancestors—Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob; Moses and Aaron, David and Solomon—bless, protect, and guard Yitzchak Herzog

(הנשיא יצחק בן הנשיא חיים ז”ל והרב הרשי יצחק הלוי הרצוג ז”ל), President of the State of Israel. May the Supreme King of Kings in His mercy grant him life, protect him, and deliver him from all trouble, distress, and danger. May He grant him wisdom, insight, and understanding, and inspire him to lead with justice, compassion, and peace.”

And let us all collectively say, Amen.