Israel’s Crucial Dilemma Regarding Gaza, 3 options

By IDF Spokesperson’s Unit, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=148132891

Israel Faces a Crucial Dilemma Regarding Gaza: Three Main Options

At this stage, Israel faces a dilemma requiring it to choose between three main options regarding the Gaza Strip:

Option 1: Ceasefire and Withdrawal from Gaza

This option involves an indefinite ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip in exchange for the release of all hostages, whether alive or dead, with Hamas receiving international guarantees that no further war will be waged against it.

The problem with this option lies in its contradiction with the concept of “absolute victory”, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set as a primary war objective. He has repeatedly vowed not to abandon this goal. Should he agree to this option, he risks losing his parliamentary majority, as far-right parties in his coalition would likely withdraw from the government, potentially leading to its collapse and new elections. Polls indicate that in such a scenario, his coalition would lose to opposition parties.

Additionally, adopting this option would leave Hamas as the dominant military power in Gaza, even if a technocratic Palestinian government were formed. The situation in Gaza would resemble Lebanon before the last war, where Hezbollah effectively controlled decision-making. Given the events of October 7, 2023, Israel is unlikely to accept such a reality. Therefore, this option would only be feasible if an internationally backed Palestinian-Arab force took control of the Strip, disarmed Hamas, and removed its leadership—something Hamas strongly opposes.

Option 2: Resuming the War and Full Control Over Gaza

This option involves resuming the war against Hamas, fully occupying Gaza, establishing Israeli military rule, and eliminating Hamas leaders and its remaining forces.

This scenario has become more likely within Israeli political circles, especially after Donald Trump’s return to power in the U.S., along with his strong stance against Hamas and his proposed plan to relocate Gaza’s population. Some far-right parties in Israel see this as a golden opportunity to take full control of Gaza.

However, this option carries significant challenges, including:

• Impact on Hostages: If executed, Hamas could lose its incentive to negotiate, leading to the likely execution of hostages, which could trigger mass protests in Israel and even topple the government.
• Human and Economic Costs: A full occupation would come at a high price, including Israeli soldier casualties, economic strain on reserve forces, and a slowdown in Israel’s economy. Additionally, Houthi forces in Yemen could escalate missile attacks on Israeli cities.
• Diplomatic Fallout: Relations with moderate Arab states could deteriorate significantly.
• Managing Gaza: Israel would be directly responsible for governing and sustaining Gaza’s population, imposing a heavy economic burden. Moreover, Arab and Western donors would refuse to fund reconstruction while Gaza remains under Israeli control.

For these reasons, Israeli decision-makers must carefully consider all these factors before choosing to resume the war.

Option 3: Extending the Ceasefire

This option involves extending the ceasefire for several more months in exchange for the release of additional hostages and the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza. However, this would merely delay an eventual decision between the first and second options.

Which Option is Best?

In my opinion, the first option—ceasefire and withdrawal—is the most beneficial for Israel at this stage. Hamas would struggle to govern Gaza post-war, especially with limited financial resources and no reconstruction efforts. Once all hostages are returned, Israel could agree to the Egyptian-Arab plan for governing Gaza, under the condition that it becomes a demilitarized zone with Arab and international oversight, eliminating any direct Israeli responsibility, including electricity and water supply.

Ultimately, it is difficult to predict which path the Israeli government will take. As the saying goes, “Tomorrow holds the answer.”