Israel’s Election Campaign Just Started (Here’s How and Why)

You most probably read the headline right here in The Times of Israel three days ago but weren’t aware of its electoral import. So here it is again: Dermer predicts war will be over in a year, regional peace deals will follow (https://www.timesofisrael.com/dermer-predicts-war-will-be-over-in-a-year-regional-peace-deals-will-follow/).

To understand how and why this is the opening salvo of an election campaign that officially should be held only a year and a half from now, here’s some important background.

In Israel’s parliamentary system, elections can always be called earlier than the full four-year term. Indeed, they usually have been – either because the economic or social environment is getting worse, or the prime minister thinks that an earlier election date is an auspicious time for the ruling party, or….

With mandatory elections coming up, coalition partners need to differentiate themselves from the main party in government, so that as the months decrease towards election day their internal coalition demands increase, up to the point where the prime minister feels it’s better to bring the elections forward than to give in to his ostensible partners’ exorbitant demands.

All these factors will soon be in play – and PM Netanyahu is acutely aware of it. However, in his personal case there are two counter-factors at work pushing off an earlier election to a later date. First, his ongoing trial(s). Bibi believes (probably mistakenly) that only by remaining the prime minister will he be able to avoid a guilty verdict and jail (reminder: Israel has already sent one PM to jail – Ehud Olmert). Indeed, if he loses his job as prime minister, Bibi can’t even become a regular government minister according to Israeli law i.e., his political career is over.
Second, it is no secret that he has blocked every attempt to set up an official Commission of Inquiry to investigate everything having to do with the Oct. 7 debacle. The reason is well known: he gave the orders several years ago to allow Hamas to receive vast sums of money – in Bibi’s mistaken belief that this would “pacify” Hamas into a more “moderate” stance vis-à-vis Israel and/or as a counterweight to the Palestinian Administration in the West Bank. Thus, pushing off the dread day of such a Commission’s final report is critical to his continued governance.

The prime minister’s quandary, though, is acute for two reasons. First, as 2026 rolls around the haredim will certainly increase their political pressure to pass a draft exemption law – and with only several months left to elections could well leave the coalition as a signal to their supporters that they are finally serious about the issue. Of course, Bibi can hardly force the passage of such a law without angering even more Likud supporters – ergo, new elections are called in Spring 2026.

Second, over the past several months the polls have consistently shown that in the forthcoming elections the coalition has no chance at all to emerge victorious. Now imagine that the war is still ongoing in Fall 2026 – Bibi’s electoral disaster would be even greater, given last year’s announcement that “we are a hair’s breadth from total victory.” A war weary – actually, completely exhausted – Israeli public would deal him a defeat of historic proportions in such a continued war eventuality. Thus, Bibi has to end the war at least several months before November 2026.

And it’s here that we return to Ron Dermer’s “prediction”: the war will end “a year from now,” around April 2026 – a convenient six to seven months early. With a so-called Gaza “victory” in hand, Bibi could afford to have a Commission of Inquiry set up – its findings would take at least a year (probably more) to emerge, well after the election campaign. In his mind, without an Inquiry finding, with all the hostages back home, and with the war receding from memory (not likely, but Bibi can always hope), his chances of reelection would be far better than they seem to be today.
What could further increase his chances of winning the election? I shudder to utter the following words, but given Bibi’s war decision-making over the past year and a half based on his own political needs (extending the war; not willing to talk about Gaza’s “day after”), it is conceivable as a surmise (not an accusation) that Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear program so that the prime minister can enter the election campaign with a major success – assuming that such an attack doesn’t end in disaster for IDF ground combatants landing in Iran (according to leaked reports about the strategy) and/or huge American anger if Israel goes it alone without Trump’s OK. It can hardly be coincidental that precisely at the time that Dermer offered his prediction, Defense Minister Katz has been declaring that even if President Trump signs a nuclear accord with Iran, Israel will still do “what’s in its own best interests.”

To be sure, Bibi is not the only one currently preparing for elections early next year. Former PM Naftali Bennett – who has been “under the radar” for months despite very positive polling – finally announced recently that he has established a new party. Clearly, by breaking his “silence,” Bennett also understands where Bibi is headed, election-wise. To put it in military terms, both leading candidates as the next prime minister are “softening up the public” to get ready for earlier elections than necessary. (In Israel, elections are never held in the summer months; there are too many Israelis vacationing overseas!)

In short, when you read the headlines and political statements from here on out, view them through the prism of “pre-election campaigning.” The candidates and parties are off and running – and the public has to keep pace.