It’s Geography, Stupid

I

The Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and USA marks a clear victory for the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) in this war, started February 28th, 2026. And as much as I distain this oppressive regime, one must face reality. The Iranian victory manifests through the fact that the Ayatullah’s regime maintained its internal power, while obtaining significant gains both at the regional and world’s arenas: Iran will return some of its frozen assets; Iran managed to impose a ceasefire in Lebanon; the American presence in the Persian Gulf will be diluted and it gained a great deal of threat on world’s economy via its hold of the Strait of Hormuz. All this while its stockpile of 440 Kg of 60% enriched uranium is untouched and with no IAEA supervision, its missile program in non-negotiable and its apparatus of allies in the Middle East (Hizballah, Huttis, Shia militias in Iraq) is intact.

This victory was achieved despite considerable military and technological disadvantages, and despite suffering losses both in the killing of its military and political leadership, and in destroying military basses and civilian infrastructure. So, how did IRI do it? The answer is that IRI maximizes the impact of geographic conditions, both on the defense and on the offence sides.

Looking on the defense side, Iran is a vast country, 1,648,000 KM² (643,750 MI²), more than the terrain of Spain, France, Germany and Benelux all together, and most of the Iranian terrain is mountainous. Mountains are excellent to dig bunkers and hide weapons and secret facilities, because the mountain itself serves as shield against bombs. The Iranians has cleverly spread their weapons, headquarters and warehouses across the country, and even after mass areal bombings by the US and Israel air forces they continue to fire their ballistic missiles in the same pace. On comparison, one should bear in mind the Allies ariel campaign against Nazi Germany in WWII lasted for about 3 years, on a much smaller and flat territory – and couldn’t eliminate its industrial and military capabilities all together.

On the offensive side, IRI had long identified its greatest asset – the Straits of Hormuz. This narrow passage of 50 KM (~30MI) in which 20% of world’s crude oil go through resides between Iran and Oman, and since IRI is by far the strongest military force in this region, it is largely in its control. The IRI has prepared in advance to close the straits, and built a considerable military machine, including fast boats, ballistic and land-to-sea missiles, drowns, and marine mines. This array allows IRI to effectively close the straits despite its naval and areal inferiority vis-à-vis USA and Israel. In the aftermath of the 12-day war in June 2025, IRI proclaimed it will close the straits under further attack and fulfilled the threat.

Closing one fifth of world’s crude oil supply has naturally affected the markets, and one of the strongest effects it has, one that is widely overlooked, is on the American worker. Unlike their counterparts in Europe and South-East Asia, American workers are highly dependent on their car. According to US Census, about 70% of commutes are of single drivers in a car. This reality is the result of 80 years of urban planning that sprawled America into residential suburbs detached from working places and commerce, forcing people to drive a car. Take for example professor Lior Sternfeld who teaches History and Jewish studies at Penn State. He lives with his family at University Park, PA and drives 7 miles to work. Should his car break his only alternative is to walk 1 mile to a bus station, where a single line passes twice a day. His story is by no means unique or exceptional, on the contrary: it is the story of the bulk of American work force: for them the car is not merely a means of transport, but an essential working tool.

Since the closer of the Straits of Hormuz, gasoline prices in USA have risen constantly. American Auto Association is publishing the daily prices of 5 types of fuels, and their data shows that average prices have risen 19% to 30% since the closer of the Straits. The National Average of regular unleaded gasoline price has risen from 2.9$ per gallon in February to roughly 4$ per gallon today, and at the height of the conflict reached a pick of 4.6$ a gallon.

This rise puts another burden on American workers who struggle with wages that hardly suffice as it is: According to the Federal Reserve, one quarter of American families today live paycheck to paycheck, which means they spend over 95% percent of their income on daily necessities. In the current situation these workers are requested to pay more each day just to fuel their cars, to get to their jobs, whose wages barely cover housing, food, healthcare and education. This stress is adding to an already volatile socio-political situation in USA today. So, while Israeli and American top officials were waiting for Iranians to take it to the streets and topple the regime, eventually it’s the American administration who capitulated for the IRI demands, fearing a growing popular unrest caused by the toxic cocktail of low wages – high costs of living – souring gas prices.

Therefore, the major variable that won the Iran war was not how many bombs dropped, how many missiles hit, how many ships sunk or how many top officials killed. It’s not an army that won this war: It’s geography, stupid.