MbS and Pakistan: A new peace calculus for Israel
The guns have quieted in Gaza — but quiet does not equal peace. For Israel, the ceasefire is a fragile pause that conceals multiple layers of risk: internal violence inside Gaza, a tentative Palestinian Authority comeback, and unresolved hostility from regional powers who remain ideologically or strategically opposed to normalization.
In the silence after Sharma al Shiekhs peace conference the calculus is quickly changing in the Middle East and South Asia. On one end, cautious optimism is causing to the revival of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic corridor (IMEC) signed days before Hamas’s terrorist attack on Israel and other connectivity projects which require a Israel-Saudi rapprochement. On the other end Riyadh is worried about its own security after Israeli missiles targeted Hamas terrorists in Doha.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MbS) is planning to visit Washington DC, having revived discussions of a US-Saudi Arabia defence agreement where he ideally expects the United States to provide the same security guarantees it provided Doha after the Israel attack. The Trump administration signed a defence pact with Qatar which equates any attack on Qatar as an attack on American peace and prosperity, bin Salman will try and achieve a similar promise. The visit is anticipated to culminate in the signing of a deal that would deepen military and intelligence cooperation between the two longtime partners, an objective the Kingdom has had for years.
On the aftermath of the attacks on Doha, Riyadh signed a defence pact with Pakistan. The timing of the agreement indicated it to be a signal to Jerusalem and Washington DC that Riyadh was willing to look elsewhere for security guarantees, but on hindsight the messaging damaged Saudi perception in India, a strong ally and investment destination for the Kingdom. Post the Israel-Hamas ceasefire with an increasing need for Saudi Arabia to be involved in any peace deal which will eventually lead to the formation of a Palestinian state, the peace deal with Pakistan is more a liability than an asset.
While Saudi Arabia has not claimed any formal role in the ceasefire, the prize at the end of the horizon for Bibi Netanyahu, is the expansion of the Abraham accords to include Saudi Arabia. The presence and involvement of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, a close friend of the Saudi Crown Price in the ceasefire finalisations, points out that MbS was probably read in on the final agreement and it had his tacit blessing. Saudi-Israel rapprochement will also finalise IMEC, which has patiently waited since 7th October for the political agreements to fall in place. While all GCC countries, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE, consider India a strong strategic ally, a trade route binding India-UAE-Saudi Arabia and Israel will change the security dynamics of the Middle East forever, isolating Iran further.
Pakistan, in its desperation to walk a tightrope between Beijing and Washington DC, may be left isolated despite its desperate attempts to please the US President with flattery. It has lost control of one time proxy, Taliban, that it developed and nurtured over several decades, with the latest Pakistan-Taliban war an irritant to the US President who is looking for a foothold in Afghanistan to counter Iran as well as create a vantage point in central Asia.
If the US-Saudi defence pact is signed, the usefulness of Pakistan to Saudi Arabia will only be of Islamabad is agreeable to providing troops against the Houthis in Yemen that it may be hesitant to do. This will leave Pakistan and its Field Marshal Munir, who seems to be currying US favor to stage a coup at home, rather isolated and with a huge grudge against Israel.
The West Asian alliance map (Middle East) will change in the coming months based on how the ceasefire holds, and an eventual roadmap to a Palestinian state. This will have profound implications also on South Asia.
