Recently, due to discussions, postings and a so-called mini-forum, with other analyst and individuals in the intelligence related venue on Linkedin; whether ancient or present – all intel is vital!
Accordingly, are there current terrifying global patterns, when studied collectively, that are emerging similar to the WWII’s violent proliferation of the prior Japanese-type Imperialism and German-type Nazism?
Although, now, in the seemingly cloak & dagger vises and allegedly secret treaties and threats of Russia and China.
Purportedly, China might consume parts of the East, Taiwan, strategic Pacific Islands that may include Hawaii, and parts of India, with additional coordination with Pakistan, and possible stealth re-education and payoff programs. Keeping the US Navy Pacific Fleet in place.
Russia is to maybe ‘repatriate’ south and eastern Europe back into ‘the New’ USSR, along with any of the weaker regional European nations, while using military force and weapons ‘testing’ on necessary targets to achieve Russian ambitions. Added to that, the use of mercenaries, Iranian terror proxies, stricter policies on oil and gas distribution as intimidation, and the threat of nuclear war. And, frankly, no one knows exactly what Putin will do, but Putin.
Thus, keeping part or most of the USFF, along with NATO, occupied with UK and EU defense, while still having to maintain the US 6th Fleet in protection of the Middle East, basically, for Israel.
Which is Putin’s ‘secret’ wild card he has yet to play (that I’ll get to shortly) and which could plausibly trigger the famed, World War III.
The Russians know part of their war is being delayed, and with losses, partially due to ultra-strong and concentrated media coverage.
Because, let’s be analytically straightforward, besides brutal and horrific Ukrainian human losses, and maybe except for Odessa Port, the country has little strategic value to the West comparable to another region that I will illustrate.
Due to the Ukraine crisis world dependence on Russian oil and gas has elevated concerns to ensure the oil rich Middle East is of colossal ‘peaceful’ strategic value to the West.
Furthermore, Israel’s strong US lobby abilities (both Christian and Jewish), an ally, a nuclear power triad, the only democracy in the Middle East, an Arab Team partner in defense of Iran, an Israeli Western buffer against Iran, and the historical gateway or highway of the Middle East, makes Israel invaluable and necessary. Hence, a monumental strategic factor.
So, if the news were to change or focus on a Middle East regional war, Ukraine would probably fall in days if not in hours. Or reduced to sections of foreign armies, groups and mafia-clans, ruling each of ‘their territory’ in Ukraine.
Afterwards, Ukraine would unfortunately be forgotten as the once highly publicized, 11 year long and continuous, Syrian Civil War. Remember that? The world’s leaderships and news putting ‘red lines’, threats, and enormous media coverage’s on Syria, later eventually, nothing.
Consequently, all Russia would need to do is, to clandestinely, ignite the Middle East war through any variety of means; Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Russia and Israeli combat aircraft, radar/anti-aircraft, and soldiers in too close proximity in Syria, Iran, and some elements of Iraq, Jordan and Arab Israelis against Israel.
Then, the entire world dynamics would alter, particularly for USA, in order to salvage Israel, and the Arab Oil States, while trying to prevent WWIII.
However, Russia may not even have to act; as the Middle East Region is already highly unstable and expectations and intel of more violent confrontations along with persistent threats, terror, attacks and retaliations abound.
Don’t be fooled by Russia’s, and for that matter China’s, apparent inaction or lack of strong reactions despite their military buildups. They are constantly monitoring and evaluating, mainly USA, on what or how to proceed. They know the power of USA from World War Two, and USA’s present abilities. Which is why they progress cautiously.
Both Russia’s and China’s tremendously brilliant and highly talented, formidable, and productive intelligence agencies are many times exceedingly underestimated. For at times, evidently and reportedly, they combine and centrally coordinate with the terrifying Russian underworld’s, and equally chilling Chinese underworld triad’s, computer geniuses who utilize the very best, advanced computer equipment money can buy, apparently working in tandem for parallel objectives, without respect to western laws, codes of behavior, morals, or fear of criminal courts, (as anyone or any court trying to arrest foreign mafias or triads would have to have a torture or death wish, specifically, in relation with the Russians and Chinese). Both of which are stoutly devoted and patriotic to their culture and countries; there is no Woke Culture in their worlds. That would be considered traitorous or heretical.
Many times, it feels as if we western analysts are a step behind, playing catch-up, or working with ‘restrictions’ or boundaries we cannot cross, while competing against those without as such (I am not saying, suggesting or supporting breaking laws, merely pointing out the reality and challenges).
Effectively, Russia and China can analyze the UK and EU weaknesses and fears, as well as concentrate on the number one Superpower; USA’s weaknesses, internal divisions, and plausible tactics to keep USA’s military forces divided globally.
Then move accordingly.
Returning to the Middle East as the reports of a failing USA/Iran Treaty continue to mount and vibrate; I have spoken, written and published much on this subject but will repeat in the slim chance the enemies of Israel are willing to listen and ponder to save their own lives, religion, culture, territories and countries.
Now I know many of you think I’m this crazy, stupid ‘infidel’ gentile in the Middle East, however, I do highly care about life, religion, culture, traditions and the survival of the Middle East.
Enemies of Israel; who are currently attacking (including localized terror attacks), planning to attack, and planning to attack as a coordinated, massive assault.
You, do not know Israel and what they are capable of.
Israel may be a tiny country, hard to defend borders, greatly outnumber, and surrounded by hostiles.
But your intel is flawed, your spies and paid local informers are lying or embellishing information, because of their hatred for Israel, and the need and want for your help in attacks or revenge against Israel.
Remember the country of Jordan’s huge mistake in the 1967 Six-Day War? Despite being warned by Israel not to get involved, Jordan instead hearkened to Egypt. Immediately and forthwith the Jordan Air Force was crushed by the Israeli Air Force, and soon Jordan lost the Holy Sites in Jerusalem, and Judea and Samaria (known as the West Bank).
Furthermore, if the combined Arab League of skilled, trained armies from seven countries, with all their collective fighter aircraft, bombers, tanks, artillery and fully armed soldiers could not defeat Israel in 1948; Israel with only light weapons and mortars, jeeps, and light-armored vehicles, four fighters and three bombers, and soldiers with little or no professional training, how can you possibly conceive of beating Israel now as an experienced nation of war, of both male and female, fully equipped in every venue, and a Superpower?
Don’t believe me? Look up military facts and the history yourselves.
Moreover, Jewish Israeli infighting is not a weakness, and your recent terror attacks have immediately dissolved that as nearly all civilian gun-licensed Israelis are rearming, as they were prior 1995, and are ready to fight and kill terrorists and enemies, from their homes and on the streets, as you’ve witnessed on the news.
Israel has been in perpetual wars and conflicts for more than 70 years, extremely experienced in all forms of warfare, including their women, most Israelis have served in some capacity in the military, and still do in the Reserves. They have the number two jet ace of the world, and many ace aviators, passing that valuable combat flight knowledge on, plus in simulators, and computer software. Their military can fight either conventional warfare, tech wars, and they are a Nuclear Triad. A real, superpower that can instantaneously reduce any city or nation inoperable, to say the least.
I also repeat, none of the threatening peoples, territories or nations against Israel have the military years, combined operations, and continuous past 70 years battle experience that Israel has. Not even Russia, as part of her forces are in Syria waiting for orders.
That is a statistic, a major, substantial factor, that needs to be heavily calculated and weighted before going to war against Israel.
And, as an analyst that evaluates and tracks human behavior, as well as military, don’t let Israeli value of life or morals confuse you into thinking that is weakness.
Jewish Israelis are taught from birth about the Holocaust, world prejudice, and the concrete need to survive and protect Israel as the Jewish State.
Consequently, Israel will stop at NOTHING and by NO-ONE to protect Israel, and Israel will strike by any means, and with any means necessary, if Israel or their main cities are attacked by armies, guided missiles, bio/chemical weapons, or the THREAT of nuclear weapons or dirty bombs. Leaving the aggressors, their territories and aggressor countries in total ruins, dead, and humiliated to history as fools attacking Israel – a highly superior military, with decades of combat experience, and with active nuclear weapons.
To my analyst and related friends and peers; I fully expect comments and opinions, but please remember to be kind.
All of us, one time or another has had a ranking officer or official ‘yell’ at us, and/or been insulted and humiliated online.
Plus, remember that articles and reports as this, are a brief compilation, of volumes of info gathered that never makes it into final print or publish, and the work is also scrutinized, maybe altered, and then approved by editors who are responsible for what ends up on their media venue.