My Briefing for President Trump on Iran’s Threats

Overview:

As your administration prepares to assume office, Iran’s regime presents one of the most critical and complex challenges on the global stage. The Islamic Republic of mullahs, led by Ali Khamenei, continues to destabilize the Middle East through its nuclear ambitions, regional proxy networks, and support for terrorism. With just weeks before the inauguration, your national security and intelligence team is uniquely positioned to resolve this longstanding and troublesome issue once and for all. This briefing outlines key scenarios for Iran’s trajectory, actionable recommendations, and the importance of a strategic, security-focused perspective in neutralizing the regime’s threats.

Strategic Context:

Since 1979, the rise of political Islam and the unchecked spread of Islamic Terrorism have gone largely unchallenged by the global community. The world’s indifference to this malignancy in the Middle East has allowed Iran’s regime to expand its influence through chaos, warmongering, and deceit. Today, over 4 decades later, these threats have reached the doorstep of the West, manifesting in daily acts of barbarism and savagery.

The announcement of Iran’s intent to develop a nuclear bomb while maintaining an extensive terrorist network highlights the urgency of the threat. The Islamic Republic thrives on exploiting lifelines and toxic channels—both domestic and international—that sustain its power. Without dismantling these terrorist networks, the chaos and destruction will continue unabated.

Your administration has an opportunity to permanently eliminate the destructive influence of the mullahs’ regime. By understanding the intricate layers of power within Iran and leveraging strategic insights, your team can carry out a decisive “surgery” to excise this malignancy.

Key Scenarios for Iran’s Future:

1. Resumption of Maximum Pressure (High Probability).

• Details: Reinstating crippling economic sanctions, especially on oil exports and financial institutions, could reduce Iran’s oil exports from 1.7 million barrels per day to 200,000-300,000 barrels per day. This would devastate Iran’s economy, likely triggering further currency devaluation and inflation.
• Implications:
  • Internal nationwide unrest would escalate as economic hardship exacerbates social divisions—economic, gender-based, ethnic, and religious.
  • Iran’s capacity to fund proxy terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas would diminish significantly.
• Recommendations:
  • Enforce secondary sanctions on entities facilitating Iran’s oil trade, particularly in China.
  • Launch public diplomacy campaigns to expose regime corruption and galvanize domestic dissent.

2. Escalation of Military Conflict with Israel (Moderate Probability)

• Details: The October 7 attacks and subsequent Israeli responses have redrawn the Middle East’s strategic map. Direct Iranian missile strikes or high-profile assassinations could escalate tensions into full-scale conflict.
• Implications:
  • Israel, with U.S. support, is likely to intensify efforts to expel Iranian influence from Lebanon and other fronts.
  • Prolonged conflict could further strain Iran’s military and economic resources.
• Recommendations:
  • Strengthen U.S.-Israel coordination to align military strategies while containing collateral risks.
  • Enhance regional defense systems to deter Iranian retaliation against U.S. allies and facilities.

3. Strategic Isolation Through Reduced Sino-Russian Support (Moderate Probability)

• Details: If the U.S. successfully reduces tensions with China and Russia, Iran could lose critical economic and diplomatic backing.
• Implications:
  • Reduced Chinese oil purchases and diminished Russian support for Iran’s activities in Syria would strain the regime’s resources.
  • Iran’s geopolitical leverage would weaken, creating an opening for increased U.S. and allied influence in the region.
• Recommendations:
  • Incorporate Iran-specific provisions in any agreements with China and Russia to limit their support.
  • Work with Gulf states to fill the diplomatic vacuum and further isolate Iran.

4. Abandonment of Nuclear & Regional Ambitions (Low Probability)

• Details: Iran’s nuclear program and support for regional proxies are pillars of its strategy. Abandoning these would represent a seismic shift in its policy but is unlikely without overwhelming external pressure.
• Implications:
  • Dismantling its nuclear infrastructure and cutting ties with proxies would leave the regime ideologically and strategically vulnerable, risking collapse.
• Recommendations:
  • Use maximum pressure tactics to test the regime’s breaking point.
  • Ensure any negotiation framework aligns with U.S. and Israeli security priorities, including the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.

Critical Considerations for Your Administration:

1. Deepening Strategic Insights:
   • To effectively dismantle Iran’s networks of influence, your administration must prioritize comprehensive intelligence gathering. Understanding the layers of power within Iran is critical to identifying vulnerabilities and implementing targeted actions.
2. Combatting Global Indifference:
   • Some nations continue to appease Iran, offering free publicity or defending its actions despite its overt support for terrorism. The world must recognize the grotesque reality of supporting a regime that parallels the brutality of Stalin, Hitler, and Saddam.
3. Leveraging Public Sentiment:
   • The Iranian populace is increasingly disillusioned with the regime, as economic hardship and authoritarian rule intensify. Amplifying their grievances through information campaigns can weaken the regime’s grip on power.
4. Neutralizing Proxy Threats:
   • Iran’s reliance on proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas underscores its asymmetric warfare strategy. Cutting off funding and logistical support for these groups will significantly diminish Tehran’s regional influence.

A Time for Decisive Action

Your administration stands at a pivotal moment to reshape the Middle East’s security landscape. By implementing a decisive and security-focused strategy, you can neutralize the Islamic Republic’s threats and bolster U.S. and allied interests in the region. The convergence of economic pressure, military readiness, and diplomatic isolation provides an unparalleled opportunity to address this longstanding challenge.

The world has long tolerated the chaos and barbarism propagated by the mullahs’ regime. Now, with a robust strategy and unwavering resolve, your administration can lead the effort to eliminate this malign influence and ensure a safer, more stable future.