The worthless polls for Israel’s last 3 elections were brazenly ‘explained’ by pollsters by blaming the public for not answering them truthfully.
You’d expect, if polls show every election again, that they systematically underestimate the right-wing favorite (Trump, Netanyahu), that pollsters would compensate for that by elevating the numbers for them. Instead, they keep blaming these voters for ‘hiding’ or ‘answering untruthfully.’
It’s like a doctor at a malpractice trial saying: I was supposed to stand by to check for side effects that all patients have to my perfect medication?
But in the US, the situation is a tad better. The pollsters don’t get away with it. Everyone blames them. And their excuses are not accepted.
From now on, the media should insist to get their money back if forecasts are significantly wrong. That will teach them responsibility.
The same negligence is still going on in Israel. No leading politician can open his mouth, or the next day, we need to hear who the public would now want to go to jail or be PM now. And they take no responsibility whatsoever for their baseless prophecies. Even when the results are far beyond the margin of error. Or when their margin of error is so large that any prediction like that becomes completely worthless. Like predicting that a party will pass the 3.5% electoral threshold with a 5% margin of error.
I see no reason to believe Trump that the pollsters were giving fake results on purpose to have Republican voters stay home in despair. If that was their motive, they utterly failed. Rather, it was just, again, shoddy work.
Call the media’s new insurance policy: Bad Guess, No Pay.