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Erfan Fard

October 7th Fallout: Iran and Leadership Insights

David Priess (CIA), Nancy Youssef (WSJ), Dennis B. Ross (UANI) , and Marc Polymeropoulos (CIA), Picture: Hayden Center - Free for all platforms
Sitting here at my desk in the middle of my university work, surrounded by hundreds of sheets of paper—some marked up in bright colors—and juggling back-to-back phone calls and meetings, I can’t help but find myself drifting back to my favorite pages on social media. Whether it’s catching up on the latest news or learning something new, it’s my little escape amidst the chaos. One of those must-visit pages is the Hayden Center, which I always check with excitement. As Larry Pfeiffer would say, it’s the loyalty of an Iranian friend, and as Professor Marc Rozell would say, it’s an eye for detail.

Scrolling through, I stumbled upon an important and thought-provoking discussion—something I’ve written about repeatedly in Israeli media or discussed on Arabic TV channels; October 7th Fallout: One Year Late Years ago. This interesting Hayden Center program will be held on October 15th at 7 PM at George Mason University and will be very, very interesting. It is being held at an excellent time.

I was a counter-terrorism analyst in the Middle East, practically memorizing every Islamic terror group. I remember our kind professor at California State University, Los Angeles—Michael Siler—who always encouraged me to focus on the Middle East. Later, when I was planning my return to the U.S. for my Ph.D., he was always there, full of support, urging me to stay focused on security studies and Transnational terrorist Network.

Reflecting on my 12 years of research on the Middle East and Islamic terrorism, I have no regrets. Maybe one day, I’ll share these experiences with students in a classroom. But since 1979, when Khomeini rose to power, Iran—once a country with thousands of years of history and civilization—has married political Islam. The Shia mullahs came into power, formed a Shia Islamic caliphate, and weren’t ashamed of any crime or betrayal. Internal suppression and external terrorism became their path to “development.” The CIA in 1979, despite being an ally of SAVAK, failed to foresee the chaos of the revolution. I met some CIA Middle East division officers during my years in the region—brilliant, insightful, disciplined individuals with strategic minds.

Yet, perhaps unlike Mossad, the CIA didn’t believe that the mullahs would act like the Islamic caliphates of the last 1400 years. Over 144 “Commanders of the Faithful” have seized power in various Islamic caliphates—tyrannical, murderous, corrupt, and power-hungry—calling themselves successors of their god. Enlightenment about Khomeini was forbidden, at least until the U.S. Embassy in Beirut was bombed.

On September 20, 1984, Hezbollah, supported and directed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, carried out a suicide car bombing targeting the U.S. embassy annex in East Beirut. It killed 23 people. Hezbollah had used similar tactics in earlier bombings in 1983. In one of these attacks, the CIA lost one of its best Middle East analysts, Robert Ames.

I owe a lot to Kai Bird for his book, The Good Spy: The Life and Death of Robert Ames. I read it, scene by scene, imagining the streets of Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq as if I was there years ago. Though I translated it into Persian, an Iranian publisher in California was too afraid to publish it.

By the 1980s, the Islamic Republic had become the most dangerous state sponsor of terrorism. Khomeini wanted to export his “terrorist revolt.” His victory in 1979 was certainly aided by Islamic and Marxist terrorist groups and collaboration with the KGB. There were efforts to change the regime in Tehran during the era of William Casey, CIA Director from 1981 to 1987. I wish those efforts had continued; perhaps today thousands would be alive, and the world would be a calmer place. But with Casey’s departure, “regime change in Tehran” became a forbidden term, both within security agencies and in political corridors—and it still is. Without efforts to change the regime, there will be neither peace nor stability in the Middle East, and neither will the Islamic terrorism paired with nuclear ambitions of the mullahs end.

Today, however, we are at a special turning point. The Middle East has a chance for critical surgery: Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and al-Hashd ( the Popular Mobilization Forces)—terrorist arms of the Islamic Republic—are crumbling, and perhaps this will impact Iran’s terrorism, warmongering, and nuclear ambitions. When the country weakens, it may fall during a national uprising. Otherwise, peaceful coexistence with a rogue government is simply impossible.

Dennis Ross, a knowledgeable and experienced diplomat, understands this well. He knows how the malignant boil that is the Islamic Republic has harmed the body of global order. He knows that Palestinian terrorist groups are funded by countries like Turkey, Qatar, and Iran, and terrorist loving organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood and the IRGC. And he knows that Gulf security is impossible without reining in these terrorist branches of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC. Even American soldiers are at risk in this region.

Dennis Ross co-founded United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) with Richard Holbrooke, former CIA Director James Woolsey, and Mark Wallace. This is the organization I’ve always dreamed of working with—it’s one of my aspirations.

Nancy Youssef, a sharp and talented journalist, also knows how American media outlets are manipulated into portraying Ali Khamenei as a “sacred” old man. “Ayatollah” means “sign of God“—but what kind of god would support Nuclear bombs, terrorism, chaos, and murder? Why do we speak with respect about a terrorist in the American media? It’s simple—the notorious lobbies tied to the Islamic Republic in the USA have created this toxic narrative.

I hope Nancy writes in the Wall Street Journal: “We in Iran are trapped by an 85-year-old senile, ignorant, lying man, surrounded by a corrupt system and a fake sanctity based on deceit. Most Iranians yearn for the collapse of this fool, the true enemy of Iran.”

As for Marc Polymeropoulos, who retired from the CIA in 2019 after a distinguished 26-year career—covering the Middle East, Europe, Eurasia, and counterterrorism—he remains an inspiring figure. I know him from his book, Clarity in Crisis, a compelling mix of leadership insights and personal stories from intelligence, which I purchased and put in my university library for students. Marc, a fan of sports, photography, restaurants, and travel, shares some passions with me.

“Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA” by Marc Polymeropoulos is a compelling blend of leadership insights, personal stories from intelligence operations, and relatable anecdotes from baseball. Drawing on his 26-year career with the CIA, Polymeropoulos offers a candid exploration of resilience and humility as foundational aspects of effective leadership. He presents nine core principles, illustrated through experiences that highlight both the triumphs and challenges of intelligence work, emphasizing the importance of integrity, perseverance, and learning from failure. With a focus on the human side of intelligence, the book not only sheds light on the sacrifices and dedication of CIA officers but also connects those lessons to everyday life. The author’s honesty about his own successes and shortcomings makes this an inspiring read for leaders in any field, encouraging readers to embrace uncertainty, stand by their decisions, and always strive for personal and professional growth.

I’ve often talked about David Priess, whom I’ve met several times at George Mason. His jokes always crack me up, and I still remember saying my goodbyes to him in front of General Hayden before sprinting to catch my flight at Reagan Airport. I’m excited to return to D.C. soon without worrying about airports and TSA serious officers. here, Of course, David gives a strong and interesting performance, and the guests will certainly not be spared from his quips and jokes.

David Priess’ “The President’s Book of Secrets” is an exceptional exploration of the intricate relationship between U.S. presidents and the intelligence community, providing readers with unprecedented access to the decision-making processes of America’s highest office. His deep expertise, drawn from his years as a CIA officer and daily intelligence briefer, brings authenticity and unique insights to the pages, making it an indispensable read for those interested in national security and presidential history.

David reveals the challenges, dynamics, and nuances of presenting critical intelligence to America’s leaders, making it an essential read for understanding the complex relationship between the intelligence community and the presidency. I haven’t yet asked David to sign my book, but I will soon.

I hope students attending this event learn about the hidden layers of the political game in the Middle East and understand the security challenges better. The speakers and panelists will bring years of experience, insights, and research to this discussion.

These kinds of discussions will open new windows to the perspective of students and listeners in Hayden Center. It will show what difficulties the fight against terrorism has and what devilish and bloodthirsty actors play on the stage. And how the mafia associated with Khamenei’s Islamic caliphate strikes at Israel even in American media. It should be officially said that today, Arab countries also seem happy about the gradual destruction of the Shia crescent. And the servant of the Russians in Tehran is going nowhere, and at the end of the game, when the Tehran dictator is defeated, neither Democrats nor Republicans will spend their time confronting Islamic terrorism associated with the Islamic Republic. In practice, Israel is performing this surgical operation in the 21st century world.

I hope I catch my flight and make it to the event, so I can take my usual spot behind Marc Rozell and General Hayden. I mean, at this point, they should just put my name on that seat at George Mason University. You know, it’s almost like I bought that seat at George Mason. Totally kidding… but not really.

Here, we must also sincerely thank Larry and Mark for their efforts in truly organizing such interesting, engaging, and educational programs.

Michael Morell, Jeanine Hayden, Gen. Hayden, Olivia Andrzejczak Gazis, and Larry Pfeiffer – 16 Sept 2019 , Picture: J.W. Remington
About the Author
Erfan Fard is a counter-terrorism analyst and Middle East Studies researcher based in Washington, DC. He is in Middle Eastern regional security affairs with a particular focus on Iran, Counter terrorism, IRGC, MOIS and Ethnic conflicts in MENA. \He graduated in International Security Studies (London M. University, UK), and in International Relations (CSU-LA), and is fluent in Persian, Kurdish, Arabic and English. Follow him in this twitter account @EQFARD
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