Don Davis

Out of Syria

Many might be worried about President Trump’s decision to pull American troops out of Syria, but soon it may seem brilliant. Especially if an immense free-for-all battle ensues in the near future.

And, if President Putin and his advisors really knew the dynamics of this region, and the players involved, they would evacuate land troops too. But, allegedly Russia doesn’t envision failure and this may be costly and embarrassing at the conclusion of another Middle East brawl.

Plus, there is a vast difference between the Russian military and the Iranian military, verses the United States, Israel and allies in this region. Except for decades old battles in Afghanistan for Russia, and Iran against Iraq, neither have updated experience in this unpredictable, volatile arena.

Whereas, the USA, Israel and many allies, have been actively and continually engaged, in large to medium scale fighting, advising and covert operations in the Middle East since 1990. Their warfare equipment is specifically designed for clashes here. Their war computers, networks, targeting systems, defensive systems, mapping, and some recurrent active-duty individuals know literally every inch or centimeter of the Middle East perfectly.

Russia and Iran’s two biggest mistakes are that they seemingly don’t comprehend behavior nor patterns, and they are infringing or threatening, whether intentional or not, a sovereign country or a Jewish homeland who has no fear of either of them. This isn’t the same as attacking the Crimea or worldwide terror attacks by Iran.

Threatening the nation of Israel is an entirely different strategy and action altogether. One that historically has shown, in the modern age, does not succeed. To misjudge a foolish endeavor such as an offensive against Israel is a major miscalculation which will bring tremendous losses and humiliation.

When you’re fighting against a Jewish homeland that has recovered from the atrocities of World War Two, and has been in perpetual brutal struggles for existence since it’s rebirth in 1948; it is a whole other type of conflict.

In addition, Israel is a superpower. I know other countries have more war toys, larger armies and bigger war budgets. However, they don’t have anywhere near the experience as the small, superpower Israel.

Israel has the ability and the advantage to severely devastate any and all enemies in this expanse including the Dictator, Bashar al-Assad. Particularly if Israeli casualties and land loss start amassing.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has the military tools, the cabinet, combat experience, the backing of President Trump, and has the mentality to carry out everything necessary to protect the Jewish State of Israel. The only thing that limits response, for the time being, is strict Jewish morals and international laws. But, morals and laws would instantly dissipate if all seemed lost.

Moreover, Trump has also personally shown he is willing to use military force, showing that already in Syria, has threatened Iran, and has fortitude to stand up against Putin.

Furthermore, Israel respects the massive power of Russia, but they don’t fear them, on the contrary, will confront them directly, and win, as they have in the past.

Besides, Israel knows Russia can’t use nuclear weapons unless Russia wants to risk the instantaneous nuclear response from USA and China.

Mega-superpower USA will never let Russia assault Israel. If Russia is unwise enough to challenge USA; China purportedly will intervene against Russia. Not that China wants to save USA, hardly; nevertheless they cannot have Russia, as a neighbor, being the only other mega-superpower.

So, this puts mega-superpower, yet inexperienced, Russia on equal levels as Israel in these regional conflicts. Although, I would give the higher edge to Israel due to their experience, technology, equipment, regional intelligence, individuals fighters and most important, fighting to save their lives and homeland.

What’s more, if Israel feels they are losing their existence and homeland; they have the resolve to use everything in their arsenal against the enemy. Knowing the USA will have their, Israel’s, back if Russia attempts nuclear reprisals.

Therefore, Iran, Syria and Lebanon will suffer tremendously. In the meantime, the axis will find out that Russia is not, at this time, willing to risk nuclear confrontation with USA or confrontation with both USA and China over the Middle East.

Sadly, Russia legitimately does not know their fate yet as they are too pumped with macho adrenaline playing new ‘war games’ to see what the end result requires in order to win.

On the other hand, Trump and Netanyahu see clearly that Putin won’t jeopardize everything he has accomplished along with going down in history as the one that may have destroyed Mother Russia and her people.

It will be Nikita Khrushchev and the Cuban Missile Crisis all over again, worse, as there will be Russian troop fatalities and substantial equipment losses similar to Afghanistan.

Finally, the month of May could be interesting to watch in this region. During that time the Iranian nuclear deal could be scraped by President Trump and the US Embassy opens in Jerusalem, Israel.

Consequently, it is logical that American troops leave the hot-spot inside Syria, and return if required.

About the Author
Don Davis is a published Middle East analyst and book author that has been in the Middle East, North Africa, and Mediterranean region since 1992. For more than twenty years most of his research material was client confidential and behavioral related. But some of his abridged reports have been posted as articles or blogs. Don is also the book author of the international spy and assassin thriller, The Children of Santiago. The story is no fuzzy, cutesy story. Instead, a sobering, blunt, action and psychological account about a military general, Santiago, using child, teen and young adults as spies and assassins. Recruited from international families while on active assignments abroad during the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 1990s.