Sergio Restelli

Pakistan’s new power structure is a threat Israel can’t ignore

Pakistan has entered a dangerous new phase. With Field Marshal Asim Munir now assuming the unprecedented dual role of Chief of Army Staff and Chief of Defence Forces, the country has effectively placed all military power—army, air force and navy (and nuclear)—under a single commander for the first time in its history. The decision to abolish the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee and hand the unified command to Munir amounts to a structural coup, formalised through parliament and endorsed by a compliant presidency. The changes make Munir the most powerful man in South and West Asia, with a radical Islamic army, a shadow army of jihadi terrorists who have long experience of battle in Afghanistan and Kashmir and most dangerously, an Islamic nuclear arsenal. Munir has also demonstrated that he is willing to ally with China, North Korea and any one else for the right price.

This consolidation occurs at a moment when Pakistan is visibly more volatile at home and increasingly confrontational abroad. Border skirmishes with Afghanistan have intensified, with Islamabad accusing Afghan forces of firing on its positions along the Durand Line. Munir now operates with a fully unified military apparatus precisely as the security situation with Kabul risks escalating into a sustained conflict.

At the same time, Pakistan’s foreign posture is shifting into far more radical territory. Foreign Minister Dhar’s declaration that Pakistan is ready to send troops to Gaza (under a clear UNSC mandate ofcourse) represents the most militant stance taken by Islamabad in decades. The government has openly positioned itself as a defender of Hamas and has moved closer to Iran both ideologically and strategically, with recent high-level meetings between Munir and Tehran’s leadership underscoring a new sense of alignment. A Saudi-Pakistan defence pact seems to have raised the confidence of the Pakistani establishment of the support of Mohamed bin Salman.

This is unfolding while Israel and India are deepening their own partnership—militarily, technologically and diplomatically. The two countries cooperate on missile defence, intelligence-sharing and counterterrorism, and see each other as increasingly vital in a world defined by Islamist extremism, Chinese assertiveness and shifting global alliances. Their relationship has grown stronger precisely as Pakistan’s politics have turned more erratic and its rhetoric sharper.

Pakistan’s new posture threatens this emerging strategic alignment. A unified military command under a newly minted Field Marshal reduces institutional checks and leaves the country’s most powerful offices entirely in the hands of one man. Its openly hostile stance toward Israel blends seamlessly with its longstanding hostility toward India (and Israel), creating a combustible mix at a time of rising cross-border militancy and deepening ties between New Delhi and Jerusalem. The warming Pakistan–Iran axis adds an extra layer of instability, and any escalation with Afghanistan could easily spill over into India through proxy networks long nurtured by elements of Pakistan’s security establishment.

In short, Pakistan is becoming more unpredictable at the very moment India and Israel are forging one of their closest strategic relationships. The combination of domestic militarisation, ideological radicalisation and external adventurism turns Pakistan into the region’s most consequential wild card. For New Delhi and Jerusalem, the imperative is clear: strengthen cooperation, anticipate volatility and prepare for the ripple effects of a nuclear-armed neighbour sliding into deeper instability under concentrated military rule.

As Asim Munir seems to be on track to eliminate his political critic, Imran Khan, it seems history is coming a full circle of Bhutto and Zia ul Haq. The Trump White House continues to place importance on Munir and has equated to him to the politically elected leaders of the country setting a dangerous precedent while the EU continues to reward Pakistan by considering renewing its GSP+ trade status despite worsening human rights abuses and erosion of democracy.

The Iran-Pakistan block is armed with nuclear weapons which seem to be imminently falling into the hands of one man, Asim Munir, creating a threat for South and West Asia.

About the Author
Sergio Restelli is an Italian political advisor, author and geopolitical expert. He served in the Craxi government in the 1990's as the special assistant to the deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Martelli and worked closely with anti-mafia magistrates Falcone and Borsellino. Over the past decades he has been involved in peace building and diplomacy efforts in the Middle East and North Africa. He has written for Geopolitica and several Italian online and print media. In 2020 his first fiction "Napoli sta bene" was published.
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