Patience is a virtue

The recent ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas are just the latest chapter in a series of high-stakes decisions with unpredictable outcomes. The hostage deal has been a source of both intense joy and extreme apprehension. There have been countless times in the last 16 months that tragedy was supplanted by triumph.  The notion that patience is a virtue has never been truer. There is a tendency to jump to conclusions and allow emotions to dominate opinion. The complexities of the situation, including many factors unknown to the public, demand restraint from jumping to conclusions.

In the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, Israel faced intense scrutiny over its immediate responses. Questions arose about why Israel did not enter Gaza right away, why it refrained from retaliating against Lebanon or even Iran, and whether earlier ceasefire agreements with Hamas should have been pursued.  Debates swirled over whether Israel should confront Hezbollah directly or if it could afford to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah. There were also uncertainties about whether Israel had the capacity to strike Iran on its own soil successfully. On the international stage, many questioned whether Israel could withstand mounting pressure from the global community and the Biden administration. In Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s motivations were heavily scrutinized.  People questioned whether his actions prioritized the best interests of the people or his own political survival.

In a recent podcast, Tal Becker, a senior Israeli diplomat, was being interviewed and the topic of conventional conceptions was discussed. Particularly the perception held by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. It was suggested that Nasrallah believed Israel would not escalate against Hezbollah because of what he perceived as diminished US support under the Biden administration.  Had there been no perceived day light between the US and Israel, Nasrallah’s calculations might have been different.  It was this misconception that persuaded Nasrallah not to take more prudent security arrangements and as a result Israel had the opportunity to attack and kill him. This event was a watershed moment that has had drastic implications that have been realized already. The long term implications of the assassination will continue to the reveal itself over time.

Ironically, it was the stop and go support of the Biden administration which elongated the war, that provided time for things to play out as they did.  For instance, some argue that if former President Donald Trump had been in power, Israel might have acted more decisively, potentially neutralizing Hamas within three months. This would have precluded the recent battles involving Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.

In many cases, the seemingly obvious and conventional answers to these dilemmas proved to be wrong often drastically so. This reaffirms the notion that there’s so many factors unknown to the public and to jump to conclusions is unwise and irresponsible. Confucius is credited with saying “he who knows that he knows not is wise. He who knows not that he knows not is a fool.” This is not a sporting event or a talk show, therefore people who sit in positions of influence have a responsibility to be extremely thoughtful about the things that they opine about. Only a fraction of the facts are evident and in the end we ought to cautiously trust that those in positions of leadership are acting in the best interest of the people they serve.