Power Without Trust

Four decades after Iran’s 1979 revolution, public trust in the Islamic Republic is in free fall, with nearly 90% of citizens favoring democratic reform and growing numbers rejecting the clerical system of Velayat-e Faqih as illegitimate.

In Iran today, a growing number of citizens are turning their backs on the Islamic Republic—not out of apathy, but from a deepening sense of disillusionment. More than four decades after Ayatollah Khomeini established a government based on religious rule, public trust in the clerical establishment and its doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih—the “Guardianship of the Jurist”—is crumbling.

Recent surveys paint a striking picture: nearly nine in ten Iranians want a democratic political system, and fewer than one in four support the Islamic Republic as it exists today. Many now see religion not as a source of guidance, but as a tool of repression.

The Velayat-e Faqih system, which places near-absolute authority in the hands of the Supreme Leader, was once promoted as a way to ensure Islamic values in governance. But today, many Iranians—both religious and secular—question its legitimacy. While some devout citizens still view the Supreme Leader as the rightful representative of the Hidden Imam, others argue that true religious leadership cannot be imposed by the state. Many more reject the very idea that one man, unaccountable to voters, should wield such sweeping power.

This crisis has roots in both history and lived experience. Khomeini’s rise was fueled by popular opposition to the Shah, but also by a belief that clerical leadership could deliver justice, prosperity, and independence. Yet the promises of the revolution remain unfulfilled. Economic hardship, corruption, foreign entanglements, and brutal crackdowns on dissent have widened the rift between state and society.

Data from the Gamaan Institute shows that over 40% of Iranians now support the outright overthrow of the regime. Others seek structural reform or hope to preserve revolutionary ideals in a different form. Trust in traditional media has plummeted, with most Iranians now turning to independent satellite channels and social media for news.

Religious belief, too, is undergoing a transformation. While many Iranians still believe in God, fewer embrace organized religion. Around half of the population says they’ve lost their faith, and only a minority supports mixing religion with laws or education.

Even within the ruling elite, divisions are growing. Some conservatives and pragmatists call for a more flexible, less authoritarian interpretation of Velayat-e Faqih. Reformists go further, suggesting that Iran’s future may not include the Supreme Leader’s absolute authority at all.

As Iran confronts a volatile economic and social landscape, the legitimacy of its ruling system hangs in the balance. The question is no longer just whether the regime can hold power—but whether it can do so with the support of the people it claims to represent.